Arsenal return to the Emirates on Saturday as Premier League leaders, two points ahead of Manchester City, and this clash with Brighton is a real test in the title race, but also a chance for the visitors to stay in the race for European places. Mikel Arteta’s team has regained its footing after the defeat to Aston Villa with narrow victories, including a late win against Wolves and a 1-0 win at Everton after a penalty from Viktor Gyökeres, while Fabian Hürzeler’s team is still reeling from the frustration of a goalless 0-0 draw with Sunderland.
The head-to-head record clearly favors Arsenal, who are unbeaten in their last five meetings and won 2-0 at the Emirates in the League Cup in October. Nevertheless, Brighton has consistently performed well in league games at this stadium in the past. Arsenal’s injury-plagued defense and a currently somewhat harmless-looking attack add to the uncertainty, even though the bookmakers still rate the hosts as clear favorites and expect a result against a Brighton team that has recently lacked punch and is missing key players.
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
- Date and time: December 27, 2025, 4:00 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 18)
Instead of betting on an Arsenal win, which is listed at around 1.4 on the market, our betting tips focus more on the number of goals. Arteta’s team continues to produce a lot of xG and often starts with high intensity at the Emirates, as was the case in the 1-0 win at Everton. Brighton brings offensive quality with strikers like Welbeck and Minteh, but combines that with a defense that is missing Lewis Dunk. This mix suggests Arsenal will lead at halftime and that both teams will score, with the total ending up over 2.5 goals.
Arsenal Form & Record Check
Arsenal come into this game at Brighton as Premier League leaders with 39 points and a two-point lead over Manchester City, but that buffer seems slimmer than the table suggests. Since their 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa, they have stabilized in the league with a hard-fought 2-1 home win against Wolves and a controlled 1-0 win at Everton, which was more reassuring than spectacular, and the Opta model still sees them as favorites.
Across all competitions, the last five games paint a mixed picture. The 2-1 defeat at Villa was followed by a commanding 3-0 win in the Champions League against Club Brugge, a clear indication of the potential that exists. The win against Wolves was down to two own goals and a thrilling finish, while at Everton the decisive goal came once again from a penalty by Viktor Gyökeres. In the League Cup quarterfinal against Crystal Palace, the score was 1-1 after 90 minutes, and they only prevailed in a penalty shootout.
Statistically, clear patterns can be seen. Arsenal has scored in all five games, but each first half has remained below one and a half goals, while the games have mostly opened up after the break. They have not lost any of these games after the break, and the data suggests that they should have scored around six times in the last three games, meaning that own goals and Gyökeres’ penalty have had a disproportionate impact on the tally.
This may be partly due to structural reasons. Mikel Arteta’s team remains focused on ball control and continues to boast the strongest defense in the league, but injuries to Gabriel Magalhães, Ben White, and Cristhian Mosquera have put this foundation to the test. Declan Rice is delivering at a world-class level as a playmaker, while Martin Ødegaard and Eberechi Eze have yet to quite reach that level, meaning Arsenal’s title race increasingly depends on rediscovering the fluidity around Gyökeres, Jesus, and the wide forwards.
Arsenal are likely to stick with the 4-3-3 formation we predicted, based on the Everton win, with Raya, Timber, Saliba, Hincapié, and Calafiori in the back four, Zubimendi, Rice, and Ødegaard in midfield, and Saka, Gyökeres, and Trossard in attack.
This system allows Rice to drop back into defense when necessary, while Ødegaard operates between the lines, Saka and Trossard attack the half-spaces, and Gyökeres ties up the center backs.
In our predicted line-up, the defensive absences remain significant, with Magalhães, White and Mosquera all missing, so Saliba will once again cover a rather makeshift back four. Hincapié is doubtful after his collision against Everton, so Calafiori could move inside and Timber or Lewis-Skelly could take over the wing if Arteta makes changes. Havertz and Dowman remain sidelined, while Martinelli could come off the bench again. This is explicitly a prediction and not a confirmed team lineup.
Brighton Form & Record Check
Brighton travel to this game at Arsenal in ninth place in the Premier League with 24 points, part of a tight mid-table, with Crystal Palace just ahead and Everton level on points behind. Given the pre-season talk of another European campaign and models that see them in contention for a Conference League spot alongside Brentford and Everton, this is somewhat below expectations but far from a collapse.
December, however, was grueling. A clear 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest in late November was followed by a chaotic 3-4 home defeat to Aston Villa and then a tired 1-1 draw with West Ham. Since then, they have shown little punch in a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool and a goalless 0-0 draw with Sunderland, two games without scoring.
Interestingly, the underlying numbers point to a clear pattern. In four of Brighton’s last five league games, the first halves have been cautious, with fewer than two goals scored, but the final scores have often been above the minimum, mostly with close results. The wild 3-4 against Villa is the exception, reminding us that Hürzeler’s team can open up and be punished if they take too many risks.
In attack, Welbeck’s seven goals in 16 games this season stand out, but the last two weeks have shown how much Brighton still depend on him and occasional flashes of brilliance from Mitoma or Minteh. On the left, De Cuyper’s recent goal and clean sheet streak when he starts underscore his value, but long-term knee injuries to Webster and Tzimas continue to disrupt continuity in central defense and in the build-up play.
Analysts nevertheless see the overall picture as positive. Current projections place Brighton alongside Brentford and Everton in the race for a European spot, and long-term metrics rate them as one of the better teams in the league in terms of expected goal difference. This December slump could therefore be a short-term correction rather than a deeper crash, even though Fabian Hürzeler knows that results need to improve soon.
Brighton are expected to line up in Fabian Hürzeler’s familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Verbruggen in goal and a back four of Kadıoğlu, van Hecke, Boscagli, and De Cuyper. With Dunk suspended and Webster out long term, the returning van Hecke and Boscagli would take on central responsibility in central defense. In midfield, we see the fit again Wieffer alongside Hinshelwood in the double six, while Baleba is away at AFCON.
Further forward in our model is a trio of Minteh on the right, Gruda in the center, and Mitoma on the left behind Rutter, giving Brighton pace on the wings despite the continued absence of March. With Tzimas out with a cruciate ligament rupture and Gomez suspended, Welbeck, after his return from back problems, appears in our predicted lineup as a substitute rather than in the starting eleven.
Again, this is a prediction and not a confirmed team lineup.
Arsenal – Brighton Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the five meetings between 2023 and October 2025, Arsenal has clearly had the upper hand in head-to-head matches. Three wins and two draws mean an unbeaten streak, while Brighton is still waiting for a win during this period. The overall goal difference of 9-2 in Arsenal’s favor underscores how one-sided the results have been, despite the two draws.
At the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have taken seven out of a possible nine points during this period, with a 2-0 win in the league in 2023, a 2-0 win in the League Cup in October 2025, and a 1-1 draw in the league in 2024. Arteta’s team also won 3-0 in Brighton in 2024 and drew 1-1 in January 2025, remaining unbeaten away from home.
The pattern of goals is striking. All five games ended with at least two but never more than three goals, and four of them remained under 2.5 goals. Arsenal scored in every game and Brighton conceded goals. The first halves were remarkably cautious and always remained goalless, so the duels only developed later when fatigue set in and spaces opened up.
Arsenal were almost perfect defensively in this duel. In the five games, they conceded only two goals in total, celebrated three clean sheets, and did not concede a single goal before halftime. Brighton’s offensive performance has slumped significantly in these direct duels, and this five-game winless streak could weigh on them psychologically, even if Fabian Hürzeler is pushing for a more offensive approach.
