Key Facts
- Alavés is in serious danger of relegation (16th place) and has gone five league games without a win—another setback would only exacerbate their problems.
- The suspensions of Guevara and Pacheco significantly weaken Alavés defensively; the team has conceded goals in each of its last five matches.
- Villarreal is level on points with Atlético and fighting for a Champions League spot; the visitors’ motivation is high.
- Despite the crisis, Alavés remains dangerous offensively: Striker Boyé recently scored twice in Valencia — thus creating good conditions for “Both Teams to Score.”
- In four of the last five head-to-head matches, both teams scored; close halves and H2H patterns support a goal bet.
- Villarreal Asian Handicap -1.5 makes sense as a hedge, as the Yellow-and-Blacks’ recent away wins have mostly been narrow.
Quique Sánchez Flores got off to a disastrous start at Alavés: In the 2-3 loss at Valencia, his team conceded both goals in stoppage time. Five days later, Alavés now hosts Villarreal, which is tied on points with Atlético Madrid in the standings and has its sights firmly set on a top-four finish. The hosts sit in 16th place, just one point above the relegation zone, and have been waiting for a win for five league games.
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and time: March 13, 2026, 9:00 PM
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 28)
Villarreal is the clear favorite on the market (around 2.15), which is hardly surprising given their recent consistent scoring and Alavés’ winless streak. The suspensions of Guevara and Pacheco further weaken the Basques’ already shaky defensive structure. “Both teams to score: Yes” is a well-founded bet: Alavés has conceded goals in every recent match but still poses an offensive threat, while Villarreal has been beaten in four of its last five league games.
Alavés Form & Record Check
The 3-2 loss at Valencia once again highlighted Alavés’ problems: Boyé scored twice, but late red cards for Pacheco and Guevara made the situation even worse. It was their third loss in five league matches. In this five-game stretch, they’ve also lost away to Levante and at home to Getafe, along with narrow draws against Girona and Sevilla. What stands out consistently is their defensive vulnerability: Alavés has conceded goals in all five matches.
The squad situation is tight; Guevara and Pacheco are suspended, Protesoni remains sidelined with an injury, and Facundo Garcés is also out. At least Ibáñez returns from suspension. The squad depth is being put to the test at a crucial moment.
Quique Sánchez Flores is likely to stick with his tried-and-true 4-4-2: Sivera in goal; a back line of Tenaglia, Garcés, Pacheco, and Jonny Otto. Guridi and Blanco are expected to anchor the defensive midfield, with Aleñá and Ángel Pérez operating slightly wider. Up front, the duo of Boyé and Toni Martínez will lead the attack. There appear to be no injury concerns.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
Marcelino criticized a drop in intensity following Villarreal’s 2-1 win over Elche, when a comfortable halftime lead was put in jeopardy by a passive second half. Overall, Villarreal has three wins from their last four La Liga matches and has scored in each of those games. The 1-4 loss at Barcelona is an outlier, simply due to the quality of the opponent. The injury situation is mixed: Foyth remains out long-term, Kambwala is back in training, and Pau Navarro is expected to be fit in time after a muscle injury. Dani Parejo could celebrate his 550th La Liga appearance if he plays.
Marcelino is likely to stick with his tried-and-true 4-4-2 formation, with Luiz Júnior in goal and a back four of Mouriño, Navarro, Marín, and Cardona. Navarro experienced muscle issues late in the match against Elche, but the coach himself described it as a cramp and remains optimistic that the defender will be fit in time. In midfield, the quartet of Buchanan, Comesaña, Gueye, and Moleiro is set to maintain the balance between defensive cover and support up front. Up front, Pépé and Mikautadze form the striking duo in a two-man system. Sergiño Foyth remains sidelined long-term as he continues to recover from a torn Achilles tendon. His absence is noticeable in the defense: Navarro is currently a starter and plays a key role in the back line while Foyth is unavailable.
Alavés – Villarreal Head-to-Head & Statistics
In their last five meetings, Villarreal won twice, Alavés once, and the teams drew twice. Villarreal last won 3-1 at La Cerámica in January 2026. Alavés’ only victory during this period was a 1-0 win in March 2025 at Mendizorrotza; otherwise, Villarreal clearly dominated, including a 3-0 win in November 2024. Interestingly, a clear pattern emerges: The first halves were close in four of the five matches, with fewer than 1.5 goals. Both teams scored in four of the five games, the total number of goals usually remained below 3.5, and Villarreal did not concede a goal in the second half in any of these matches.
