Alaves vs Atletico – Tip, Prediction & Odds Primera División 03.05.2025

Home » Alaves vs Atletico – Tip, Prediction & Odds Primera División 03.05.2025

Alaves – Atletico Madrid

A relegation spot is just one slip-up away – and that’s exactly the pressure Deportivo Alavés is facing going into their home game against Atlético Madrid.

The Basques are finally breathing easier after their hard-fought 1-0 win over Real Sociedad, but as 17th in the table, they are only one point ahead of Girona, with Las Palmas lurking two points behind.

Atlético travel in third place with 66 points, buoyed by their recent 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano, but known for slipping up against teams at the bottom of the table.

Simeone’s side won the first leg 2-1, but stumbled here a year ago with a 2-0 defeat – a warning sign that is just as present as the internal duel between Sørloth and Griezmann for the center forward position.

Referee Juan Martínez Munuera brings back memories of red cards for Griezmann and Barrios, adding extra spice to the game.

Both squads are almost at full strength; former Atlético players Santi Mouriño and Carlos Martín are looking to trip up their former club Alavés.

Alaves – Atlético info

  • Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
  • Date and time: May 3, 2025, 2:00 p.m.
  • Competition: Primera División (Matchday 34)

Alaves form & record check

Alavés is thriving on teamwork and newfound nerve: two wins and a draw from their last five league games have kept the club above the relegation zone.

Their lack of goals remains striking – they have never scored more than two goals in total in this run and have not taken the lead at half-time in any of their last five games.

Center back Garcés publicly praised the “united front,” while coach Coudet is calling for additional self-confidence and protagonism – it is precisely this mix of discipline and courage that should cause problems for Atlético.

Predicted 4-2-3-1: Sivera – Tenaglia, Garcés, Mouriño, Manu Sánchez – Joan Jordán, Antonio Blanco – Carlos Vicente, Guridi, Carlos Martín – Kike García.

Coudet remains true to his pragmatic plan: a compact back four, quick counterattacks down the wings and Guridi as a tactical free spirit between the lines.

Villalibre or Toni Martínez are ready to come off the bench as game changers; there are no major absences.

Atletico form & record check

Atlético look stable but not untouchable: three wins and two defeats in their last five league games, not a single draw.

Simeone’s team has been shaky defensively, conceding at least one goal in four games; Oblak only kept a clean sheet against Rayo Vallecano.

In attack, Sørloth is pushing for more playing time with seven goals this season, while Griezmann has gone eleven games without scoring; the decision will probably only be made on matchday.

Third place in the table is comfortable, but the Rojiblancos are showing noticeable inconsistency, especially away against bottom teams.

At Atlético, everything points to the usual 4-4-2 formation: Oblak – Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Galán – Giuliano Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher – Morata and Sørloth (or Griezmann).

Riquelme continues to train individually, but otherwise the squad is complete; Simeone will decide shortly before kick-off who will start alongside Morata.

Regardless of the personnel, the credo remains the same: defensive compactness, high tempo in midfield, efficiency up front.

H2H Alaves – Atletico Head-to-head comparison & statistics

No room for diplomacy: There has been a winner in each of the last five head-to-head matches – three times Atlético, twice Alavés.

The most recent meeting in November 2024 ended 2-1 for the Rojiblancos.

Since September 2021, both teams have scored in every game, with four of those matches seeing fewer than 3.5 goals.

At halftime, four of those five games had fewer than 1.5 goals, and there has been no draw after 90 minutes – so anyone considering 1X, X2, or 12 should keep this streak in mind.

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