Valencia has had a remarkable losing streak against Alavés since September 2023: four defeats and one draw in the last five head-to-head matches speak for themselves. On Monday evening at 7:00 p.m. at the Estadio Mendizorrotza, Valencia will finally want to break this streak, but the Basques are clear favorites going into the match. Alavés currently sits in 10th place with eleven points from eight games, while Valencia is struggling to keep up in 16th place with eight points. The hosts have won the last three encounters by narrow margins, with Valencia’s last victory coming in May 2023 with a 1-0 win at Mendizorrotza. After their recent 2-1 defeat at Girona, Valencia are under increased pressure, while Alavés gained confidence with a 3-1 home win against Elche. Eduardo Coudet has a full squad to choose from for the home side, with Mariano back in contention after sciatica problems, only Garcés remains suspended. Valencia, on the other hand, will be without the injured Ramazani and Diakhaby, both of whom are out for at least a month. The loss of center back Diakhaby is particularly significant, with Copete having to step in defensively. Alavés are tactically efficient and use tight games to their advantage, while Valencia must find solutions against compact counterattacks. The visitors’ weakened central defense increases the importance of stable organization in midfield. The bookmakers see Alavés as only slight favorites, with the odds pointing to a close contest. Realistically, form, confidence, and the better personnel situation suggest a narrow home win or at least a draw for the Basques.
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and time: October 20, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 9)
This trend justifies a conservative bet on under 1.5 goals at halftime, combined with a focus on the double chance 1X for Alavés. The statistics impressively support this assessment: Alavés has recorded under 1.5 goals in eight of its last ten first halves and has not won any of its last five first halves. Valencia has also scored few goals in all of its last five games before the break. The betting market shows Alavés as a moderate favorite at around 2.30. Form and personnel clearly favor the home side: Valencia has picked up only four points from its last five games, lost three of its last five away games, and will be without Diakhaby and Ramazani. Alavés has also shown a knack for late goals, with Vicente scoring three times after the 76th minute in their last home win. Around 80% of Valencia’s goals conceded have come after the break, confirming the pattern that Mendizorrotza only really wakes up after the interval. Specific betting ideas: A combination of under 1.5 goals at halftime plus a double chance 1X final result offers solid security. Those who are more risk-averse can combine under 1.5 goals at halftime with over 1.5 goals in the second half. Important: Betting odds and lineups can change at short notice, and injuries or rotations can have a significant impact on the forecast. Sensible bankroll management and moderate stakes remain essential. Statistically and in terms of personnel, there is much to be said for a cautious start and a later decision in favor of Alavés.
Alaves Form & Record Check
Deportivo Alavés currently occupies 10th place in the table with eleven points and a balanced goal difference of +1. Only two points separate the Basques from seventh place, held by Athletic Club, while Getafe follows closely behind with eleven points as well. The recent 3-1 home win against Elche, thanks to a penalty from Carlos Vicente and late goals from Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé, has given the team a boost. Prior to that, the team suffered a 0-1 defeat at Mallorca, drew 1-1 at Getafe, and lost 1-2 at home to Sevilla. A striking pattern has emerged in the last five league games: Four games were 0-0 at halftime, indicating a slow start. Alavés scored in four of the five games, but also conceded goals in four games. The defense looks compact overall, but there is room for improvement in the early stages. Coach Eduardo Coudet now has a full squad to choose from, with Mariano Díaz also back in action after sciatica problems. The 32-year-old Mariano is looking for his last chance in LaLiga and is still without a goal after 222 minutes, while Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé, and Carlos Vicente are competing for places in the offense. Nineteen-year-old newcomer Youssef “Yusi” Enríquez is increasingly finding his place and strengthening the depth on the left wing. Antonio Blanco is approaching his 100th competitive game for Alavés and remains a key player in midfield. Coudet praises the team’s mentality and the possibility of rotating in the future. Alavés has a stable foundation and growing personnel options, but needs to fix its first-half struggles and get its attackers, especially Mariano, into form quickly.
Alavés are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. The expected starting lineup from back to front: Sivera in goal, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Maras, and Enríquez in a back four. Blanco and Guevara will play in defensive midfield, with Vicente on the right, Guridi in the center, and Calebe on the left. Toni Martínez will start as the lone striker. Coach Eduardo Coudet has the entire squad at his disposal and has announced rotation. Mariano is fit again after sciatica problems, but is likely to wait for playing time behind Toni Martínez, Boyé, and other candidates. Blanco is close to making his 100th competitive appearance for the club. Yusi has recently established himself as a left-back and brings depth down the left wing. The actual starting lineup may still change before kickoff.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia are currently in 16th place with eight points. Their last five games have yielded one win, one draw, and three defeats, most recently a painful 2-1 loss to Girona, in which Diego López’s equalizer in the 57th minute was not built upon and the winning goal came in the closing stages. There is a noticeable recurring pattern: first halves are usually defensively stable and low-scoring, but second halves are often open games. In all of their last five games, at least two goals were scored after the break, with Valencia conceding goals in 80% of these encounters and failing to use the second half to their advantage. With Largie Ramazani and Mouctar Diakhaby, two important players are out for around a month. Diakhaby’s absence in the center is particularly painful, with Copete stepping in as his replacement. In attack, Hugo Duro is likely to move into the starting lineup and Arnaut Danjuma to switch to the left side. The absences exacerbate the rotation problems for coach Carlos Corberán. The point difference at the top is small, with Mallorca in 15th place also having eight points, while the lead over Celta Vigo is only two points. The table in the lower midfield is tight, which means that every point is of great importance. Corberán must stabilize the team quickly to avoid real danger of relegation. Upcoming opponents Alavés, Villarreal, Real Madrid, and Betis will show whether Valencia can react quickly. The focus must be on defensive stability over 90 minutes, with better adaptation to the second half through tactical changes or conditioning measures and sensible use of substitutes.
Valencia are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, as has been the norm under coach Corberán recently. Diakhaby is out for at least four weeks with a quadriceps muscle injury, so Copete is likely to start alongside Tárrega in central defense. On the wings, Ramazani is also injured and will be out for about a month, which secures Danjuma a place on the left wing. Duro is set to be the lone striker, with Almeida acting as an attacking playmaker behind him. Pepelu and Santamaria are expected to form the defensive midfield duo. This prediction is based on evidence and observations; an official lineup has not yet been announced.
Alaves – Valencia Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record from the last five meetings clearly favors Alavés, with four wins and one draw. Valencia has not won against Alavés in over two years, with the last match in May 2024 ending 1-0 for the Basques. The games were mostly low-scoring: in all five games, there were no goals at halftime, and four of the five matches ended with a maximum of one goal. The 2-2 draw in Valencia in December 2023 is the only exception. A friendly match in the summer of 2024 also fits the pattern, with Valencia losing 1-0 away. Overall, Valencia conceded at least one goal in all five competitive matches, but never scored before halftime. Alavés scored at least one goal in each of these games, with most of the goals coming in the second half. The current negative streak of three consecutive competitive defeats is a relevant factor for coach Carlos Corberán. Based on recent history, Alavés is the clear favorite, with the matches tending to produce few goals and late goals.
