On Sunday afternoon at San Siro, two worlds collide in Serie A. Allegri’s AC Milan go into this matchday in second place with 32 points, sandwiched between Inter and Napoli, while Zanetti’s Verona arrive in 18th place with a goal difference of minus nine. Recent history clearly favors the hosts, with Verona having lost five league games in a row against Milan, including a narrow 1-0 defeat here in February last year. Milan have lost only once in 15 league games, an impressive run, but their elimination from the Supercoppa against Napoli and the 2-2 draw against Sassuolo have raised questions about whether their offense is potent enough in the all-important moments. This is exactly where Leão and Pulisic come in, converting constant pressure into goals. Despite victories against Atalanta and Fiorentina, Verona remain in the relegation zone, and with Bradarić, Belghali, Suslov, and the suspended Frese out of action, the bookmakers see AC Milan as clear favorites.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: December 28, 2025, 12:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 17)
The most interesting value is still AC Milan leading at halftime, over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring: no, supported by the Rossoneri’s offensive pressure at San Siro and the absences of Suslov and Belghali at Verona.
AC Milan form & record check
AC Milan are competing in Serie A with a clear identity. They are in second place with 32 points, just one point behind Inter and one ahead of Napoli, having lost only once in 15 league games and conceded 13 goals in the process. After 11 defeats and eighth place last season, this is already a clear overperformance compared to many predictions before the start of the season, even if the late slump of the previous season is likely to still be present at the club. In the league, the recent run has been more solid than spectacular, even though AC Milan have remained unbeaten in their last three home games. A narrow 1-0 home win against Lazio showed control and concentration, while the 3-2 win in Turin highlighted their attacking power but exposed defensive lapses, and the 2-2 draw against Sassuolo, in which Bartesaghi scored twice from the left wingback position, felt like a missed opportunity to draw level with Inter. Across all competitions, the last five games paint a more mixed picture. The 1-0 defeat in the Coppa Italia away game at Lazio and the 2-0 defeat in the Super Cup against Napoli meant early exits in both cup competitions, with AC Milan failing to score in either game. Overall, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats during this period, suggesting a slight loss of punch in crucial games. Statistically, there are small cracks behind the strong league position. AC Milan did not lead at halftime in any of their last five games, conceding goals in four of them, i.e., in 80% of cases. The switch to a back three has helped Tomori, who talks about running smarter rather than harder, but the team probably still needs some time to find its rhythm defensively over 90 minutes. Individually, the form largely supports the title ambitions, with Maignan exuding authority behind a defensive line led by an excellent Tomori. Capello praised the depth and reputation of this squad, Bartesaghi’s brace against Sassuolo and interest from Arsenal underline his emergence, while the long-term absences of Gabbia and Gimenez and the debate over Nkunku’s role show that the team is still working its way into its most convincing form structurally.
AC Milan are expected to stick with their now familiar 3-5-2 formation, as predicted here, with Maignan in goal behind a back three of Tomori, Pavlović, and De Winter. Saelemaekers and Bartesaghi should occupy the wings, while Modrić, Rabiot, and Fofana form a technically strong but combative midfield. Up front, Nkunku and Leão are likely to operate as a flexible duo, often dropping into a 3-4-2-1 formation when in possession. Allegri may tweak individual roles, but the core of this expected starting lineup looks set, especially as Gabbia remains sidelined in defense and Gimenez is unavailable as a classic penalty area striker. Their absence underlines Tomori’s central importance in defense and means that AC Milan will be more mobile and versatile up front, with Pulisic and Loftus-Cheek likely to be used as effective options from the bench rather than starters.
Verona Form & Record Check
Verona travels to San Siro in its best league form of the season so far, even if the table still suggests a relegation battle. A weak 0-0 draw in Lecce and painful home defeats to Parma (1-2) and Genoa (2-1) were followed by an impressive 3-1 home win against Atalanta and a 2-1 away win at Fiorentina, in which Orban’s brace hinted at a much sharper, more ruthless attacking force. However, these successes do not conceal the volatility of their performances; four of their last five league games have seen at least three goals scored. Verona scored in four of those games but also conceded goals. Interestingly, there have been no second-half wins in this run, with around 80% of those halves ending in draws, suggesting that the team struggles to pull away decisively after the break and often clings on to narrow leads. Structurally, Paolo Zanetti seems to have found a stable axis, with Serdar likely to start alongside Al-Musrati and Bernede again after his return to Florence, while Orban and Mosquera compete for the central attacking position. On the wings, the absence of Frese, Belghali, and Bradarić, who is still recovering, could mean that center backs will move out wide and the basic formation will be interpreted a little more cautiously. The league record has improved, but the context remains delicate. Verona is in 18th place with 12 points and a goal difference of minus nine, just two points behind Genoa and one ahead of Pisa, so any result could immediately change the situation. Zanetti has even jokingly talked about wanting to survive Christmas in office, but his room for maneuver is extremely limited.
Under Zanetti, Verona is likely to play a 3-5-2 system again, so this is clearly a prediction and not an official confirmation. In our expected lineup, Montipò starts in goal, backed up by a back three of Nelsson, Núñez, and Bella Kotchap, while Cham and Oyegoke take on the wide roles to compensate for the absence of the suspended Frese and the injured Bradarić on the wings. In midfield, we continue to expect Serdar to start alongside Al-Musrati and Bernede, a trio that gives Verona both ball control and reliable protection in front of the defense. With Suslov out long term and Belghali away with Algeria, squad depth is reduced, and up front we see Giovane and Mosquera as the predicted strike partnership, with Orban remaining a very real alternative.
AC Milan – Verona Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five Serie A encounters, AC Milan has won every single game, with five wins from five games and not a single draw. The most recent match in February 2025 ended 1-0 for Milan at San Siro, another example of Verona usually trailing behind on this stage and rarely posing a serious threat to completely turn the game around. The goal difference underscores this control, with Milan scoring in all five games, nine goals in total, while Verona found the net only twice, both times in 3-1 defeats. Three of the five encounters were decided by just one goal, suggesting that the duel remains competitive at times, even if the points consistently end up with Milan. The rhythm of these games has been remarkably consistent, with all five first halves ending with under 1.5 total goals, and Milan coming into this matchup on the back of three consecutive halftime leads. Verona has never led at the break in this sample and has failed to score before halftime, suggesting that Milan takes control early without immediately opening up the games. As the game progresses, the trend becomes even clearer, with Milan winning the second half in four of the last five encounters and Verona conceding goals after the break in four of those games. Overall, this five-game block paints a tough picture from Verona’s perspective, with five consecutive defeats and no draws to even slightly slow down Milan’s authority in direct comparison. At the same time, the repeated 1-0 victories suggest that Verona can often keep the gaps narrow, while psychological baggage has probably long played a role, as Milan goes into this direct duel with a whole host of positive memories.
