A league leader who cannot afford to slip up in the battle with Napoli at the top, and an opponent who was swept aside 6-1 in the Coppa Italia at San Siro, but who also won 5-2 in the league in 2023: AC Milan vs. Sassuolo promises to be much more than a cozy Sunday afternoon on matchday 15. At San Siro, league leaders AC Milan welcome the eighth-placed visitors in a match that could give Milan some breathing space at the top ahead of Napoli. Massimiliano Allegri’s team are on 31 points, level with Napoli, but ahead on goal difference, and the bookmakers see them as clear favorites. Milan are coming off a 3-2 comeback win in Turin after trailing 0-2, extending their unbeaten run in the league since the first matchday and keeping them in the race for Allegri’s Scudetto and Champions League ambitions. The exit from the Coppa Italia and the absence of European nights continue to hurt, but with Leão, Fofana, and Gimenez out, the focus is now even more on Pulisic, Serie A’s top scorer with seven goals, whose brief appearance in Turin underlined how central he has become. Sassuolo travel on the back of a 3-1 win over Fiorentina, with goals from Volpato, Muharemović, and Koné providing momentum, but their league form remains inconsistent and they are three points behind Juventus. Fabio Grosso has to do without the injured Pinamonti and Berardi, so the responsibility in attack falls mainly on Laurienté, and it is here, where Sassuolo went down 6-1 in last season’s Coppa Italia, that the question arises as to whether another surprise is possible, despite the 5-2 league victory in 2023.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: December 14, 2025, 12:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 15)
In our betting tips, we combine AC Milan’s current momentum and Pulisic’s brace in Turin with Sassuolo’s porous defense. The focus is on over 2.5 goals in the game and over 1.5 goals in the second half, plus a bet that both teams will score: No, because we trust AC Milan’s defense. With the betting market valuing AC Milan’s home win at around 1.4, we believe the real value lies in these goal markets, especially against an injury-plagued Sassuolo side without Pinamonti and Berardi.
AC Milan form & record check
AC Milan goes into the weekend as league leaders, level on points with Napoli at 31 points, but ahead on goal difference. The comeback in Turin, a 3-2 win after being 0-2 down, sums up the current league form well. Allegri’s team extended their unbeaten run in Serie A to 13 games and combine resilience with enough individual quality to turn even difficult games around. Looking at the last five games in all competitions, the picture is a little more nuanced, with three wins, one draw, and one defeat. Their exit from the Coppa Italia at Lazio, a 1-0 defeat, revealed a lack of spark among the rotation players and a certain predictability in their attacking play. In contrast, narrow league wins against Inter and Lazio, both 1-0, showed how focused and stable the defense can be once Milan has taken control. Statistics from this recent series of five games reinforce this impression. Milan has scored in 80% of these games, yet the second halves have mostly been cautious, with under 1.5 goals in four of these encounters and no draws after the break. Interestingly, Allegri may prioritize game management, protecting leads rather than forcing additional goals, which fits well with a spine built around Maignan, Tomori, and midfielders such as Modric and Rabiot. Personnel issues add another layer: Leão, Fofana, and Gimenez have all been ruled out at short notice, placing more of the creative burden on Pulisic and Saelemaekers on the wings. Ricci’s versatility, playing both as a regista and a mezzala, has helped, while Loftus-Cheek’s frustration at limited minutes highlights the intense competition within the squad. With no European fixtures and the Coppa Italia season already over, AC Milan can now prepare for each league opponent in a more focused and detailed manner.
AC Milan are once again expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Maignan in goal behind a back three of Tomori, Gabbia, and Pavlovic. Saelemaekers and Estupinan will provide width on the wings, Rabiot and Modric will control the center, while Pulisic and Nkunku will operate in the half-spaces behind Ricci, who could be deployed slightly higher up again after Allegri’s recent experiments. Significant absences shape this assessment, as winger Leão, midfielder Fofana, and center forward Gimenez are expected to miss out, due to groin problems, muscular issues, and a bruised ankle, respectively. Their likely absence makes Pulisic the central figure after his recent decisive brace in Serie A, while Loftus-Cheek is likely to start on the bench again, which is in line with current reports of his limited playing time.
Sassuolo Form & Record Check
Sassuolo comes to Milan with a mixed Serie A record, two wins, one draw, and two losses in its last five league games. Its away form has fluctuated from a clear 3-0 win at Atalanta to a lackluster 2-0 loss at Como. Sassuolo sit eighth in the table with 20 points, three points behind Juventus and level with Cremonese directly behind them. The statistics paint a picture of a team that is entertaining but fragile. At least two goals have been scored in each of their last five league games, with three or more in four of those matches. Sassuolo scored in four of those games and conceded in just as many, often allowing chances early on, but the team improves as the game progresses, frequently scoring after the break. The win against Fiorentina was important for Fabio Grosso. Sassuolo fell behind early but responded with character: Volpato equalized, then Muharemović and Koné turned the game around, with Laurienté particularly impressive in the final third. Pinamonti, who has started every league game this season, had to be substituted due to injury and is now out with an ankle problem, so this breadth in goal scoring could become a useful feature. Injuries further complicate the situation. Berardi’s absence removes a clear offensive reference point, Pinamonti and Skjellerup are also missing, and Vranckx is unavailable in midfield. Grosso will likely rely even more heavily on Laurienté, who has provided 2 goals and 2 assists in 15 games this season, while also incorporating Cheddira and Volpato, hoping that Murić and the defense can stop conceding cheap goals in the first half.
Fabio Grosso is expected to stick with the 4-3-3 formation he has used in recent weeks, with Murić in goal and a back four of Coulibaly, Walukiewicz, Idzes, and Doig. This gives Sassuolo solid heading strength in the central areas and mobility on the wings, something they can use well against AC Milan’s variable wing play, even if the exact line-up of the full-back positions could still change at short notice. Further forward, in our predicted but not yet confirmed line-up, Matic plays in front of the defense, Koné and Thorstvedt take on the running-strong eight roles, and Volpato, Cheddira, and Laurienté are up front. With Berardi and Pinamonti out injured and Vranckx also unavailable, this formation keeps the recently successful goalscorer Volpato and midfielder Koné in prominent roles around Cheddira as center forward. Apart from the prominent absences, Sassuolo will also be without Turati, Romagna, Pieragnolo, Paz, and Skjellerup, meaning that the depth of the squad has shrunk overall, both in defense and in attack. In our predicted squad for the matchday, Zacchi, Satalino, Muharemović, Candé, Odenthal, Lipani, Boloca, Iannoni, Fadera, Pierini, and Moro would be on the bench.
AC Milan – Sassuolo Head-to-Head & Statistics
AC Milan has a slight upper hand in the last five head-to-head matches, with two wins, while Sassuolo won one of those games and two matches ended in a draw. The series begins with a 0-0 draw in 2022, followed by Sassuolo’s 5-2 win in 2023, then AC Milan’s 1-0 response in the same year, a 3-3 draw in 2024, and a 6-1 cup defeat for Sassuolo in 2024. A total of 21 goals were scored in these games, an average of 4.2 per game. Three of the five matches saw at least six goals scored, namely the 5-2, 3-3, and 6-1 results, while the other two matches remained very close at 1-0 and 0-0. Interestingly, it seems that once the first goal is scored, the structure often breaks down and the game becomes very open. AC Milan has scored in four of these five encounters, i.e., 80%, and the data shows that they were just as successful in the second half. Sassuolo conceded goals at the same rate. Since their emphatic 5-2 victory in 2023, Sassuolo have failed to win in three games against AC Milan, while the Milanese are unbeaten in this sub-series. In three of these matches, the first half exceeded the 2.5-goal mark, and in three cases this was also true of the second half, completing the picture of a duel that can suddenly escalate. The 6-1 win in the 2024 Coppa Italia round of 16 was indicative of this, as it was a single-game knockout in the national cup and saw Sassuolo knocked out of the competition in impressive fashion.
