League leaders AC Milan welcome bottom-of-the-table Pisa to the Giuseppe Meazza on Friday evening, in what will be the first ever meeting between the two clubs. The bookmakers see Milan as clear favorites, which is hardly surprising given the current league table: Milan sit atop the table with 16 points after seven matchdays, while Pisa are stuck at the bottom with just three points.
Under Massimiliano Allegri, Milan have been in stable form for weeks, picking up four wins from their last five league games, most recently a 2-1 victory over Fiorentina thanks to a brace from Rafael Leão. Pisa, on the other hand, are still waiting for their first win of the season after a goalless draw against Verona.
Milan’s personnel situation has eased slightly, with Christopher Nkunku almost ready to return after his comeback training, but key players such as Christian Pulisic, Adrien Rabiot, and Pervis Estupiñán are still missing. With Ruben Loftus-Cheek doubtful, there are strong indications that Allegri will rely on Fofana, Ricci, and Modrić in midfield.
Based on form, quality, and home strength, Milan are clear favorites, while Pisa are likely to play defensively and hope for counterattacks. However, the visitors currently lack the firepower and consistency to pull off a surprise coup.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: October 24, 2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 8)
Milan are clear favorites with odds of around 1.30. Form and statistics clearly favor the Rossoneri: four wins from their last five games, and over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of their recent encounters. Rafael Leão is in strong form offensively. Pisa has not won in five games, has not scored in the first half in this series, and has shown little offensive action in some games, for example, without a single shot on goal against Verona.
The most conservative prediction remains a home win for Milan. Due to Pisa’s offensive weakness, especially in the first half, a combination bet on Milan to win + both teams to score is a good option: No, which offers better odds than a straight 1, but is also riskier. Other options are Milan wins without conceding or Half-time/Full-time Milan/Milan, as Pisa has great difficulty scoring goals in individual periods.
Milan’s good scoring rate in recent games and Leão’s form justify the offensive expectations. Pisa’s streak without early goals and their zero-shot performance against Verona support the assumption that they will hardly develop any offensive pressure, especially away from home. Short-term absences may reduce Milan’s offensive power, but they remain inconsequential due to existing alternatives. Unpredictable factors such as early set pieces or tactical changes by Pisa could still enable goals for the visitors. With betting odds of around 1.30, the value for pure home win bets remains low, which is why the stake size should be chosen conservatively.
For a moderate risk distribution, we recommend: 60% of the stake on the single bet Milan wins as a safe option, 30% on the combination bet Milan wins + Both teams score: No for higher returns at medium risk, and 10% on Milan without conceding a goal or half-time/full-time Milan/Milan for higher risk and higher returns. The analytical assessment and the betting market are in agreement. Those looking for value should choose a combination with Both Teams to Score: No or Clean Sheet options, but accept a higher risk in return.
AC Milan form & record check
AC Milan are currently top of Serie A and have dropped only one point in their last five competitive games. The 0-0 draw at Juventus about two and a half weeks ago was the only slip-up in an otherwise very strong run. In four of the five wins in this series, Milan scored at least three goals, underlining the team’s high offensive strength and finishing efficiency. It is particularly noteworthy that in the last five games, no goals were conceded in the first half, while many decisions were made in the closing stages of the games.
Last Sunday, Milan defeated Fiorentina 2-1 at San Siro. Rafael Leão was the match winner with a brace, including a converted penalty in the 86th minute. Pavlović set up the equalizer, and Gimenez replaced the injured Athekame at halftime. Under coach Massimiliano Allegri, the team is showing defensive stability and using the quiet periods in the early stages to build control of the game. The team is more solid than last season and combines offensive power with reliable defensive work.
With 16 points from seven league games, Milan is just ahead of city rivals Inter, who have collected 15 points. This tight table situation makes every point lost important, but Milan has put itself in a good position. However, there are still squad problems: Christian Pulisic is out with a thigh injury but is hoped to return before the derby on November 23, Christopher Nkunku is also injured, and Adrien Rabiot is not expected back until the end of November. In addition, Loftus-Cheek is suffering from muscle problems, while Estupiñán and Jashari are also unavailable. Despite these absences, the team has compensated for the gaps very well so far.
Milan is likely to line up in its usual three-man defense in a 3-5-2 system, despite personnel restrictions under coach Massimiliano Allegri. There are serious absences in midfield and attack: Christian Pulisic is out with a thigh injury, Christopher Nkunku has foot problems, and Rabiot and Loftus-Cheek are also out in central midfield.
In midfield, Modrić could play alongside Fofana and Ricci, while Saelemaekers and Bartesaghi are expected to occupy the wide positions. In defense, Tomori, Gabbia, and Pavlović are set to form the back three, with Maignan in goal. In attack, Rafael Leão will play a key role after his two goals against Fiorentina, with Gimenez likely to partner him up front.
The 3-5-2 formation is designed to bring stability, but the many injuries significantly limit Allegri’s rotation options. The final starting lineup will be decided shortly before kickoff.
Pisa Form & Record Check
Pisa is currently in last place with only three points. There is currently no gap to safety, as Genoa also has three points, which adds to the urgency of the situation. There have been no wins in the last five competitive games, with only two draws and three defeats. The lack of offensive threat is striking, especially in the first half.
In their last league game against Verona, Pisa failed to score and did not register a single shot on the opponent’s goal. In 80% of their last five games, the team failed to score in the first half, and this pattern often continues throughout the entire game. Before the Verona game, they suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat in Bologna, as well as a 2-3 loss to Napoli and a 0-1 cup defeat to Turin. Overall, the defense has been inconsistent, although it has been slightly more stable in the second half, with many games ending in a draw after the break.
Coach Alberto Gilardino is missing several players: Stengs is out until Christmas after groin surgery, Esteves is out with an adductor injury, and Lusuardi and Maucci are also unavailable. These absences make it difficult to make tactical adjustments at short notice. Ahead of the game at San Siro, Pisa urgently needs a noticeable reaction, both tactically and mentally, in order not to lose touch and further exacerbate the situation.
Coach Alberto Gilardino is likely to field his usual 3-5-2 system. However, injuries have left the squad in a tight spot: Calvin Stengs is out until the end of December after groin surgery, while Tomás Esteves is expected to be sidelined until the end of November with an adductor injury.
I expect Caracciolo, Albiol, and Canestrelli to form the back three. Cuadrado should start on the right and Angori on the left. The midfield could be occupied by Marin, Aebischer, and Akinsanmiro. The duo of Nzola and Tramoni are likely to start up front, with Semper between the posts.
This lineup is still subject to change, as the final decision will likely be made shortly before kickoff.
AC Milan – Pisa Head-to-head comparison & Statistics
There is no historical rivalry between AC Milan and Pisa, as the two clubs have never met in official competition. Milan has played at the highest level nationally and internationally for decades, while Pisa has often played in the lower leagues, resulting in a lack of encounters and established patterns.
With no reference games to draw on, the match is uncharted territory for both sides. Coaches and teams must rely solely on current form, scouting, and tactical preparation, which could add an extra element of unpredictability and excitement to the game.
