The biggest contrast of the season so far awaits us at San Siro when second-placed AC Milan host Genoa, who are 17th in the table, in a duel that could shape both the title race and the relegation battle. Serie A reaches its halfway point on Thursday, with Allegri’s team just one point behind Inter, while De Rossi’s Genoa are just above the relegation zone, largely confirming the rather modest expectations before the start of the season on the one hand, but clearly exceeding them with every point they earn on the other.
Milan go into this home game full of confidence after Leão’s winning goal in Cagliari, which extended their run of sixteen league games without defeat, even though Nkunku and Gimenez are still out and Loftus-Cheek is not fully fit. Modrić has started every Serie A game so far and Füllkrug provides additional depth, while Genoa travels to San Siro with ongoing injury concerns and AFCON-related absences after an intense 1-1 draw with Pisa. In head-to-head comparisons, AC Milan has dominated the last five encounters, with three wins and two draws, including a 2-1 away win in May, although Genoa has managed to score points in its last two appearances at San Siro, with a 3-3 draw and a 0-0 draw. The bookmakers see a clear home favorite, but this recent history suggests that the early stages in particular are likely to be competitive and fairly close.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: January 8, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 19)
Bookmakers are listing an AC Milan home win at odds of around 1.4, so the better value is likely to be found in markets such as Milan to win to nil, Milan to be leading at halftime, and over 1.5 goals in the second half. This assessment is based on Allegri’s league-leading defense anchored by Maignan, Leão’s crucial return in Cagliari, Genoa’s injury-plagued attacking line without Ekuban, Messias, and Cornet, and De Rossi’s team conceding goals in five consecutive games despite Colombo’s flashes of brilliance.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
AC Milan are heading into the Serie A midseason break in good form, riding a streak of sixteen league games without defeat. The Rossoneri are in second place with 38 points, just one point behind Inter and one ahead of Napoli, meaning that any result could immediately shift the balance in the title race. Across all competitions, they have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat in their last five games, a rhythm that is certainly befitting of a serious contender.
In the league, this recent phase has been more solid than spectacular. A 3-2 away win at Torino was followed by a 2-2 draw at San Siro against Sassuolo, which felt like points dropped. They then swept Verona aside 3-0 at home before holding on for a hard-fought 1-0 win at Cagliari. The only slip-up in this period was the 2-0 defeat to Napoli in the Super Cup semi-final.
The statistics from the last five competitive games paint a picture of a team that is reliable in the final third. Milan have scored in almost all of these games, most of which ended with more than one goal, and the team regularly finds an extra gear after the break. This is consistent with recent analyses, which show a scoring rate of around 80% in the second half.
The individual form curve is also encouraging. Leão’s decisive goal in Cagliari was his sixth in 11 league appearances and highlighted how much Milan missed him during his adductor problems. Modrić played every Serie A game until the winter break, providing Allegri with continuity in midfield. With Nkunku and Gimenez out, Pulisic and loan signing Füllkrug are taking on additional responsibility in attack.
In defense, Maignan remains a key figure as captain and the subject of a contract extension offer, further underlining his importance. Defensively, Milan has stabilized in its last two league games, but the defeat in the Super Cup showed that this group can still falter under high pressure. Allegri’s search for another defender in January reflects precisely this awareness.
As things stand, AC Milan are likely to stick with the 3-4-2-1 formation that has become Allegri’s preferred setup. Accordingly, our predicted lineup sees Maignan in goal behind a back three of Tomori, De Winter, and Pavlović. Saelemaekers and Estupiñán are expected to provide width on the wings, with Fofana and Rabiot forming the central midfield. In front of them, Modrić and Pulisic will operate between the lines behind Leão, who is expected to start centrally.
This formation is a projection and not a confirmed report, so Allegri may still adjust his personnel decisions. Nkunku and Gimenez are both out with ankle problems, so they are missing from this predicted starting eleven, limiting the options in attack. Füllkrug is likely to be held back as the main alternative up front, while Loftus-Cheek offers a more physical option if Modrić is rested.
Genoa Form & Record Check
For Genoa, the trip to Milan is clearly about the fight against relegation. The team is in 17th place in Serie A with 15 points and a goal difference of minus ten, just two points behind Lecce but also only three ahead of Verona, which sums up their fragile situation. One win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five league games have inevitably dented their confidence.
The results during this period speak for themselves. A 2-1 away win at Udinese was followed by three defeats in a row, 2-1 against Inter, 1-0 against Atalanta, and 3-1 against Roma. The subsequent 1-1 home draw against Pisa, considered an important match in the relegation battle, brought only limited relief, as Colombo’s strong opening goal was canceled out by a confusing equalizer after Leali’s mistake under pressure.
Statistically, Genoa’s recent league games show a fairly clear pattern. In 80% of their last five games, more than 1.5 goals were scored by the final whistle, and in 80% of those games, Genoa scored themselves, but the team conceded goals in all five games. The second halves are comparatively quiet, with 80% of them ending with under 1.5 goals, meaning that the games tend to flatten out after the break rather than gaining momentum.
De Rossi’s job is made even more difficult by numerous absences. Against Pisa, Messias, Grønbæk, and Cornet were missing due to injury, and Onana was away on international duty, which clearly limited the options around Vitinha and Colombo. Looking ahead to the game in Milan, Cornet, Messias, Ekuban, Onana, and goalkeeper Siegrist remain on the injury list, so Genoa are likely to once again rely more on working hard against the ball than on pure creativity.
We expect Genoa to stick with De Rossi’s 3-5-2 formation, with Leali in goal, a back three of Otoa, Østigård and Vásquez, Norton-Cuffy and Martín as wing-backs, and Frendrup and Thorsby covering for Malinovskyi in a central midfield triangle.
Up front, we expect Colombo and Vitinha to partner again after their lively performances against Pisa, with Colombo taking on the more linking role.
In our predicted lineup, Leali is represented by Lysionok and Sommariva, while Marcandalli and Sabelli cover the defensive flanks. With Siegrist out and Onana away on international duty, De Rossi is missing a classic defensive midfielder in front of the back line, which means Frendrup’s running and tackling will be even more important. Cornet, Messias, and Ekuban are expected to remain sidelined, so Malinovskyi and the wing-backs will be responsible for providing width and creativity.
It could well be that De Rossi makes some adjustments here, for example by bringing in Grønbæk or Stanciu for additional playmaking qualities or moving Carboni closer to the strikers, but our predicted line-up sees them more as substitutes from the bench than as regular starters.
AC Milan – Genoa Head-to-head & statistics
In the last five Serie A encounters, AC Milan have had the upper hand over Genoa, with three wins and two draws, remaining unbeaten in this series. Genoa failed to win any of these games, picking up just two points. It is striking that Milan have been particularly efficient away from home, winning both of their visits to Genoa.
In terms of goal difference, AC Milan have scored eight and conceded four in these five games, while Genoa have scored four goals. Three matches ended with a maximum of two goals, and in four of the five games, the total number of goals was less than 3.5. Only the 3-3 draw in 2024 stands out as an exception and somewhat distorts Milan’s otherwise fairly controlled defensive record.
Another pattern is the rather cautious start. According to the data, four of the last five first halves ended in a draw, with most offering no more than one goal. AC Milan never trailed at halftime in this sample, which is why Genoa often had to chase the game instead of defending a lead.
Chronologically, AC Milan first won 2-0 in 2022, then 1-0 away in 2023. In 2024, the teams drew 3-3 and then 0-0 in Milan, before AC Milan won again in Genoa by a narrow 2-1 margin in May 2025. Ahead of the match in January 2026, defensive discipline is likely to be Genoa’s top priority, as open games have tended to favor Milan.
