Key Facts
- Atlético is in second place, Alavés in sixth; with a five-point gap, a draw would leave the standings unchanged.
- Alavés goalkeeper Antonio Sivera saved a penalty in the 0–0 draw against Athletic Bilbao, securing a point for Alavés following losses to Racing Santander and Valencia.
- Ville Koski and Facundo Garcés are out for Alavés; Nicolás Valentini is an option at center back following his appearances against Valencia and Athletic Bilbao.
- Atlético has scored ten goals in its last five games; this tally supports the prediction of a high-scoring match despite Alavés’ recent 0–0 draw.
- Alavés failed to score against Valencia and Athletic Bilbao; this supports the “Both Teams to Score: No” prediction despite Atlético’s recent offensive form.
- Atlético dominates the all-time head-to-head record but has failed to win in its most recent away matches against Alavés; this streak supports the risky prediction of a draw.
Match Preview
Quique Sánchez Flores wants Alavés to be a tough team to beat when Atlético visits for Saturday’s La Liga clash at Estadio de Mendizorroza. Diego Simeone’s team is coming off three straight league wins and is considered the clear favorite. However, Tuesday’s Champions League match could affect Simeone’s lineup. Atlético sits in second place, five points ahead of sixth-place Alavés.
Atlético narrowly won the last recorded competitive match between the two sides, 1-0, in January 2026. A similarly close game would play right into Alavés’ plan to keep the visitors in check. The key factor for betting odds is whether the hosts can turn that resistance into another draw.
- Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and time: October 10, 2026, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 8)
However, Alavés’ scoreless matches against Valencia CF and Athletic Bilbao suggest “Both Teams to Score: No.” Since two of the three most recent head-to-head matches between the two teams ended in draws, a draw after regulation time is a possibility despite Atlético’s three consecutive league wins. In each of the last three listed head-to-head matches, fewer than 2.5 goals were scored. A bet on over 2.5 goals is therefore risky, even though Atlético has surpassed that mark in all five of the listed matches. The bets stand on their own merits. Whether the goal bet pays off depends primarily on how often Atlético scores.
Alavés Form & Record Check
Antonio Sivera saved a penalty in Alavés’ 0-0 draw against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga, securing a point for his team following losses to Racing Santander and Valencia CF. In those three league matches, Alavés scored only once. This low goal tally supports the “Both Teams to Score: No” bet. On counterattacks, however, Lucas Boyé can pose a threat to Atlético with his runs.
Ville Koski and Facundo Garcés are out. This makes Nicolás Valentini an option for center back, after he played the full 90 minutes against Valencia CF and Athletic Bilbao. Abde Rebbach is also unavailable. Sánchez Flores must decide whether to stick with his standard defensive formation or switch to a back four. That will determine how well Alavés can thwart Atlético’s attacks.
Atlético Form & Record Check
With their 2-1 La Liga victory over Real Madrid, Atlético underscored their offensive strength, even though Real played most of the second half with ten men. Prior to that, Atlético won 4-0 against Osasuna and 3-0 at Real Sociedad. These three consecutive league wins are the strongest indicator of form for Over 2.5 goals.
Away from home, their results across all competitions have been less convincing: Atlético lost in the league at Athletic Bilbao and in the Champions League group stage at Liverpool before securing the win at Real Sociedad. Morten Hjulmand’s heavy workload due to international matches and Tuesday’s game against Manchester United give Simeone reason to consider making changes. Jonathan David’s goal-scoring rate makes him an option for the attack if Simeone alters the lineup.
Alavés – Atlético Head-to-Head & Statistics
Atlético has won 11 of the 18 recorded competitive matches. The historical record thus clearly favors the favorite. However, in the four most recent listed away games at Alavés, Atlético has failed to win, making a draw a plausible outcome. Alavés won 2-0 in 2024 and drew both of the recorded home matches in 2025. In the six most recent head-to-head matches listed, fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in each game. Therefore, betting on over 3.5 goals is the bolder pick.
