Tennis Today – Matches on September 23, 2026
While I spread my focus a bit across the Far East yesterday, today’s tennis tips are specifically focused on the tournament in Chengdu, China, where I’ll be covering all six first-round matches of the day overnight.
With a new customer sports betting bonus, you can use your free betting funds not only for this tournament and to place tennis bets, but also for events in Hangzhou, Singapore, or Seoul.
Today’s Tennis Picks – September 23, 2026: The action continues in the Far East!
Although the season is slowly coming to an end, there are still some interesting tournaments in the Far East ahead of the ATP Finals, which are the focus of my tennis tips today.
While my main focus is on all six first-round matches in Chengdu, with good sportsbook providers you can also place your tennis bets on matches from the other tournaments.
Chengdu Picks Tonight, September 23: Borges – Ugo Cabarelli (4:00 a.m.)
Ugo Cabarelli is a classic clay-court specialist who is noticeably out of his element on fast hard courts. As soon as the pace picks up, the Argentine loses ground in baseline rallies, which plays right into the hands of Borges’ aggressive groundstrokes.
Borges, on the other hand, brings an extremely solid foundation to hard courts and excels above all thanks to the high reliability of his own serve. In the current hard-court season, the Portuguese player is winning a strong 74% of points on his first serve and allows his opponents very few break points on fast surfaces.
Since Ugo Carabelli is vulnerable on his second serve and regularly drops below the 45% mark in service points won on hard courts, Borges will dictate the rallies from the start and may even close out the match without dropping a set.
My pick: Quite a one-sided affair!
Chengdu betting tonight: JM Cerundolo – Zhou (4:00 a.m.)
While the Argentine’s strengths lie primarily on clay, the 21-year-old Chinese player benefits massively from home-court advantage and the fast conditions on his home hard court, where he has already posted solid Challenger results this season.
JM Cerundolo often struggles with defensive depth issues on fast surfaces and has a noticeably weaker record on hard courts than his opponent, who can rely on an average of over six aces per three-set match when serving.
If Zhou pushes the Argentine behind the baseline with flat groundstrokes and speeds up the rallies from the forehand side, Cerundolo will lack the decisive power on this surface.
My pick: Zhou has a real chance!
Chengdu tonight: Duckworth – Sonego (4:00 a.m.)
Historically, Lorenzo Sonego has always had the upper hand in head-to-head matchups. The Italian has won all of his previous matches against James Duckworth—including most recently the hard-fought match in Winston-Salem, which he took 7–5, 6–3.
Especially in the decisive moments, Sonego proves to be the far more mentally resilient player and regularly takes the wind out of the Australian’s sails with his extremely reliable tiebreak record.
While Duckworth becomes prone to errors on his backhand side as the match progresses, Sonego impresses with consistent returns on his opponent’s second serve.
If the Italian carries the momentum from their previous matches into this one, he’ll once again win the decisive rallies thanks to his greater precision from the baseline and defeat the Australian in straight sets.
My pick: Sonego is slightly better!
Chengdu Prediction Tonight: Griekspoor – Shapovalov (4:00 a.m.)
After Griekspoor came back from a set down to win in Geneva in 2024, the Canadian returned the favor in three sets at the Munich tournament in April 2026. Both players are extremely strong on their own serve, but when they play too aggressively from the baseline under heavy pressure from their opponent, they are equally prone to inconsistent stretches.
An analysis of the return data from their most recent hard-court matches reveals Shapovalov’s critical weakness.
The Canadian consistently commits a huge number of double faults when taking risks on his second serve—as was most recently the case in his US Open exit, where he had 11 double faults—and wins fewer than 35% of points as a returner on hard courts.
If Griekspoor lands over 80% of his first serves in the court and variably shifts the rallies toward Shapovalov’s error-prone backhand, the balance will tip in the Dutchman’s favor.
My pick: Could easily go to a third set!
Chengdu betting tonight, September 23: Shevchenko – Hurkacz (4:00 a.m.)
All of their head-to-head matches at the ATP level have gone to the Pole, who boasts a flawless record in their direct encounters and simply doesn’t give the Kazakh any breathing room.
Shevchenko repeatedly finds himself in deep trouble against absolute serving giants because he struggles to generate depth on his returns against fast opponent serves, causing him to get stuck on the defensive early on.
Since Shevchenko generates too few free points on his own serve and has shown significant weaknesses on his second serve in recent hardcourt matches, Hurkacz immediately applies tremendous pressure on break-point rallies with his whipping forehand.
So if Hurkacz hits his first serve consistently as usual, he’ll once again take the wind out of the Kazakh’s sails and wrap up the match without dropping a set.
My pick: Hurkacz advances thanks to his power!
Chengdu picks tonight: Shang – Mannarino (4:00 a.m.)
Although Adrian Mannarino technically leads 1–0 in their head-to-head record thanks to his three-set victory at the 2023 Miami Masters, the situation has changed significantly ahead of their clash in Chengdu.
The veteran Frenchman is in the midst of a prolonged slump and has endured an alarmingly weak stretch in which he has lost 13 of his last 18 matches against lower-ranked opponents.
His flat, extremely low-spin game is visibly losing its effectiveness on the hotter hard courts when opponents can actively match his pace. This is precisely where Juncheng Shang’s game comes into play; with his versatile left-handed style, he makes very few unforced errors and builds rallies intelligently.
The 21-year-old Chinese player, with around 62% of points won on his second serve, shows significantly higher efficiency in his own service games than Mannarino, whose usual defensive fortress has recently revealed considerable weaknesses.
My prediction: Shang has stepped up his game in recent months!
