Key Facts
- After a 0-0 draw in the first leg, Paderborn is just one strong home performance away from securing its third promotion to the Bundesliga.
- Wolfsburg only managed to climb to 16th place with a 3-1 win at St. Pauli, but overall fell short of expectations.
- Paderborn’s defense is weakened: Jonah Sticker is suspended, while Hoffmeier and Obermair are already out.
- The absences of Arnold, Wimmer, and Seelt rob Wolfsburg of their ability to build play and control the ball, and they are also missing several defensive options.
- Wolfsburg has remained unbeaten in the last five head-to-head matches, but four of those featured more than 1.5 goals.
- The bet on a halftime draw fits with Wolfsburg’s tight opening phases and the scoreless first half in the first leg.
The situation around Wolfsburg seems more tense than stable: Dieter Hecking has criticized the club’s sporting direction, and the 0-0 draw in the first leg against Paderborn has done little to quell questions about clarity in possession. Now the second leg of the Bundesliga relegation playoff on Monday heads to the Home Deluxe Arena, where Ralf Kettemann’s team is just one strong performance away from securing promotion to the Bundesliga. Paderborn arrives with momentum and good timing, following a 2-0 win over SV Darmstadt 98 last weekend in the 2. Bundesliga, a result that allowed them to overtake Hannover 96. Wolfsburg salvaged 16th place in the standings with a 3-1 win at FC St. Pauli and continues to show Bundesliga-caliber play, but the season has fallen short of expectations.
- Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
- Date and time: May 25, 2026, 8:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Final)
The bookmakers see Wolfsburg as slight favorites on the road, but the better value might lie in 1X—that is, Paderborn avoiding a loss. Hecking has already spoken of technical sloppiness, and the injuries to Maximilian Arnold, Patrick Wimmer, and Jenson Seelt are sapping some of Wolfsburg’s strength in the key areas.
Paderborn Form & Record Check
Kettemann’s team came out of the first leg without conceding a goal and with the useful feeling that Wolfsburg can be beaten. The cost was disciplinary: Due to Jonah Sticker’s red card in stoppage time of that same Bundesliga match, Paderborn will have to do without him in the return leg. With Marcel Hoffmeier and Raphael Obermair already sidelined, defensive coordination around Felix Götze and Calvin Brackelmann becomes even more crucial. In the league, Paderborn’s final stretch was inconsistent but resilient.
Paderborn played out their 2-0 win at SV Darmstadt 98 cleanly under pressure, especially after the 5-1 victory at SV Elversberg and the 2-3 home loss to FC Schalke 04 had exposed weaknesses. The 2-2 draw against Karlsruher SC also showed why goals are likely here, as this team finds creative ways to finish.
Paderborn’s likely starting lineup looks like a 3-4-2-1, with Dennis Seimen (41) in goal behind Mattes Hansen (22), Tjark Scheller (25), and Calvin Brackelmann (4). Marcel Hoffmeier is out with a torn ACL, Raphael Obermair with a torn Achilles tendon. That’s why Mattes Hansen (22) and Jonah Sticker (3) seem like the obvious replacements, while up front, Stefano Marino (30) is likely to lead the line.
Wolfsburg Form & Record Check
Wolfsburg’s frustration from the first leg underscored Hecking’s familiar complaint: too many promising opportunities were squandered due to sloppiness. Nevertheless, the 0-0 draw provided a foundation and continued a streak of tight opening phases. In their last five competitive matches, Wolfsburg has mostly gone into halftime with the score tied, suggesting a team that wants to regain control before taking risks. The late league rescue at FC St. Pauli, a 3-1 away win, restored some offensive confidence following the 0-1 loss to Bayern Munich and the draws against SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach. But the injury list is a concern: Maximilian Arnold, Patrick Wimmer, Jenson Seelt, Rogério, Kilian Fischer, Cleiton, and Bence Dárdai are all listed as out, which limits both the structure and the flexibility of the bench.
Wolfsburg is likely to stick with Dieter Hecking’s expected 3-1-4-2 formation, with Kamil Grabara in goal behind Jeanuël Belocian (6), Denis Vavro (3), and Konstantinos Koulierakis (4). With Maximilian Arnold out due to groin issues, Mattias Svanberg (32) and Christian Eriksen (24) are set to anchor the midfield. Patrick Wimmer and Bence Dárdai are also out, so Mohamed Amoura (9) and Dzenan Pejcinovic (17) could start up front. Defensively, Jenson Seelt, Rogério, Kilian Fischer, and Cleiton are unavailable, suggesting that Saël Kumbedi (26) and Joakim Maehle (21) will provide width on the wings.
Paderborn – Wolfsburg Head-to-Head & Stats
The last five matchups clearly favor Wolfsburg, with three wins and two draws, while Paderborn is still waiting for its first victory in this series. The first leg in May 2026 was an outlier: a 0-0 draw, after earlier meetings had been more open. In 2022, Wolfsburg won a friendly 5-4, and the Bundesliga matches in 2020 and 2015 also went to Wolfsburg. This broader pattern is helpful but not decisive. Four of the last five matches have produced more than 1.5 goals, and in the four games prior to the most recent draw, both teams scored. The 2019 Bundesliga draw in Wolfsburg serves as a warning for the favorites, as Paderborn has often been competitive at times, even though Wolfsburg has repeatedly found ways to avoid defeat.
