Key Facts
- AS Roma enters the derby as the clear favorite with 67 points (5th place); a win would secure their lead over Como (−2) and solidify their Europa League spot.
- Lazio has conceded goals in five consecutive competitive matches and failed to score before halftime during this stretch—indicating a structural offensive problem, particularly in the first half.
- Lazio is missing goalkeeper Ivan Provedel (shoulder injury) and center back Alessio Romagnoli (suspended), which makes the defense appear even weaker and more vulnerable.
- In the last five derbies, fewer than 2.5 goals were scored in each match, and Lazio failed to score before halftime in any of those encounters—a statistically supporting argument for the “Under 2.5 goals” bet.
- AS Roma’s offense is hampered by absences (Dovbyk, Ferguson), but Donyell Malen has recently shown goal-scoring threat (a brace against Parma) with assists from Paulo Dybala, which remains an offensive option despite personnel issues.
- Stephan El Shaarawy is playing his final home game in an AS Roma jersey against Lazio, which adds extra emotional significance to the derby; the match is also taking place under heightened security measures following disputes over the Coppa Italia final scheduling issue.
Stephan El Shaarawy plays his final home game in an AS Roma jersey against Lazio, of all teams. The derby itself had to be rescheduled following an unpleasant scheduling dispute surrounding the Internazionali final: Sunday, May 17 at the Stadio Olimpico, Matchday 37 of Serie A, with heightened security measures and logistical compromises affecting the entire city.
From a sporting perspective, the outlook for Gian Piero Gasperini’s team is clear. AS Roma sits in fifth place with 67 points, level with AC Milan and just two points ahead of Como, while Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio sits in ninth place with 51 points.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: May 17, 2026, 12:00 PM
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 37)
Over 2.5 goals is supported by AS Roma’s recently prolific offense and Lazio’s weakened defense, as Ivan Provedel is out with an injury and Alessio Romagnoli is suspended. Nevertheless, “Both Teams to Score: No” still holds appeal, as Lazio failed to score against Inter and often starts slowly, making AS Roma -1.5 the bolder bet.
AS Roma Form & Record Check
AS Roma are coming off a chaotic but valuable 3-2 league win at Parma, where Donyell Malen scored twice, Devyne Rensch added the other goal, and Paulo Dybala provided the first assist. It wasn’t as clean as Gian Piero Gasperini would have liked, especially after conceding two goals. But it underscored the team’s ability to close out games even when the pressure is still on.
Prior to that, the 4-0 win over Fiorentina and the 2-0 victory at Bologna had shown a more convincing version of the team: direct, aggressive, and hard to contain. The absences of Evan Ferguson and Artem Dovbyk in the center of the attack further limit options in the middle, and Bryan Zaragoza is also out. Lorenzo Pellegrini’s gradual return to team training is therefore significant, even if a starting spot does not yet seem certain.
AS Roma could line up in a projected 3-4-2-1 formation, with Mile Svilar – 99 in goal behind Gianluca Mancini – 23, Evan Ndicka – 5, and Mario Hermoso – 22. Bryan Cristante – 4 and Manu Koné – 17 form the backbone of the central midfield, while Matías Soulé – 18 and Paulo Dybala – 21 support Donyell Malen – 14 up front.
The absences are significant: Bryan Zaragoza is out with knee inflammation, while Evan Ferguson and Artem Dovbyk are unavailable due to ankle and thigh issues, respectively. This suggests that Donyell Malen – 14 will step into the breach as the central striker, while Matías Soulé – 18 and Paulo Dybala – 21 will have to take on more creative responsibility.
Lazio Rome Form & Record Check
Lazio Rome has had a difficult week. The 0-2 loss in the Coppa Italia final against Inter came just four days after a 0-3 defeat in Serie A against the same opponent and revealed a clear pattern: Once the team falls behind, it struggles to change the momentum. While their run in the cup was impressive, the final offered little cause for optimism regarding the offense.
Their league form is more mixed: a 2-1 win at Cremonese and a 3-3 draw against Udinese preceded the setbacks against Inter. Nevertheless, Lazio has conceded goals in each of its last five competitive matches and has not scored a single goal before halftime during that stretch. The absence of Ivan Provedel and the suspension of Alessio Romagnoli continue to leave the defense looking unsettled, and even the availability of Mattia Zaccagni does little to change that.
Lazio Rome is expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation. Ivan Provedel is out with a shoulder injury, so Edoardo Motta – 40 is expected between the posts. With Alessio Romagnoli suspended in Serie A, Patric – 4 is likely to partner Mario Gila – 34 in defense. Nicolò Rovella – 6 will take on the role of defensive midfielder, while Mattia Zaccagni – 10 poses the greatest threat on the wing.
AS Roma – Lazio Head-to-Head & Stats
The September 2025 match ended with a 1-0 win for AS Roma at Lazio, which tends to confirm rather than break the recent pattern. In the last five derbies, AS Roma won three times, Lazio Rome once, and the two teams drew once. Particularly relevant to this assessment: All five matches had fewer than 2.5 goals, and all five also had fewer than 3.5.
The older results underscore the same controlled pattern: a 1-1 draw in 2025, a 2-0 win for AS Roma in 2025, a 1-0 win for AS Roma in 2024, and a 1-0 win for Lazio in the 2024 Coppa Italia final. Lazio Rome did not score before halftime in any of these five matches, whereas AS Rome did so in four.
