Key Facts
- Stuttgart and Leverkusen are tied for fourth and fifth place with 58 points each; this head-to-head matchup could be decisive for their last realistic chance at a Champions League spot.
- Stuttgart is missing its key leader in midfield: Captain Atakan Karazor is suspended; additionally, Finn Jeltsch and Ameen Al-Dakhil are out in defense, further weakening an already vulnerable backline.
- Leverkusen heads to Stuttgart with momentum: Patrik Schick scored a hat trick in the 4-1 win over RB Leipzig and demonstrated a cohesive team under coach Hjulmand.
- Stuttgart’s form is shaky: While the team has scored in each of its last five competitive matches, it has conceded goals in four of those games and earned only two points from its last two Bundesliga matches.
- The recent head-to-head history is high-scoring: Four of the last five meetings saw over 3.5 goals, and in four of those, both teams scored—a tactically defensive game is unlikely.
- From a betting perspective, Leverkusen with a positive handicap or as a non-loser are interesting options, as Stuttgart’s defensive absences could structurally weaken the hosts. The goal odds also clearly favor Over 3.5 goals.
Now that Germany is likely to miss out on the additional Champions League spot, Saturday’s Bundesliga clash at the MHP Arena takes on even greater significance: Leverkusen is in fourth place, Stuttgart in fifth, both with 58 points (Hoffenheim is also in a similar range), so it increasingly looks like a direct head-to-head battle for Sebastian Hoeneß and Kasper Hjulmand for what may be the last realistic path into the competition. The most recent league clash in January 2026 ended 4-1 in Stuttgart’s favor in Leverkusen, but the current mood is less clear-cut: Stuttgart fought to a curious 3-3 draw at Hoffenheim and will be without the suspended Atakan Karazor, while Leverkusen arrives on the back of a convincing 4-1 victory over RB Leipzig—this contrast gives the match real momentum. On the betting market, Stuttgart is considered the slight favorite, but the real value lies elsewhere: Leverkusen’s recently much more consistent league form, capped off by Patrik Schick’s hat trick against Leipzig, faces a Stuttgart team without Karazor that continues to concede too much space early on.
- Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart
- Date and time: May 9, 2026, 3:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 33)
The betting market sees Stuttgart with a slight home advantage, but the real value lies elsewhere. Leverkusen’s recently much more consistent league form faces a Stuttgart team without Atakan Karazor, which also continues to concede too much space early on. This makes Leverkusen an interesting option with a positive handicap or simply as a non-loser.
The expected flow of the game also suggests it won’t be a tight contest. Stuttgart’s defensive problems and Leverkusen’s recent offensive surge clearly point to more than 3.5 goals.
Stuttgart Form & Record Check
Stuttgart secured a point after a bizarre 3-3 draw at Hoffenheim—a result that coach Sebastian Hoeneß described as a wake-up call. The team showed great spirit: they were often the underdogs, fell behind multiple times, equalized through Ermedin Demirović and Tiago Tomás, and even held on to the point after Atakan Karazor was sent off. However, they had little control of the game.
In the league, Stuttgart has been waiting for a win for three games and is repeatedly under pressure to come from behind. In their last five competitive matches, the team has scored in every game and shown late energy, but conceded goals in four of those five matches. Absences such as Finn Jeltsch and Ameen Al-Dakhil exacerbate this defensive imbalance.
For the prediction, the key factor is that Stuttgart almost always finds solutions offensively but continues to show little stability defensively.
Stuttgart could line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Alexander Nübel is expected to start in goal, with Luca Jaquez and Jeff Chabot slotted in central defense in front of him.
In midfield, Chema Andrés is likely to replace suspended captain Atakan Karazor alongside Angelo Stiller; Finn Jeltsch and Ameen Al-Dakhil remain sidelined. Up front, Deniz Undav is the obvious choice as the central striker, while the remaining positions are expected to be filled by the established rotation.
Leverkusen Form & Record Check
Leverkusen could hardly have chosen a better time for its strongest offensive performance to date. In the 4-1 win over RB Leipzig, it was Patrik Schick who dominated the match with his hat trick, while Nathan Tella, Ibrahim Maza, and Alejandro Grimaldo supported a front line that finally looked like it meant business. After weeks of mixed signals, this performance gave Kasper Hjulmand exactly what he needed: a cohesive performance that justifies the confidence placed in him.
The question is whether this form will hold up on the road. Leverkusen has won three of its last four Bundesliga matches, including away games in Dortmund and Cologne, but recent reports surrounding the club rightly emphasize how vulnerable the team has remained on the road. This squad still fluctuates between control and vulnerability, which is why the momentum, while palpable, isn’t really reliable.
This boosts Leverkusen’s attacking potential but also leaves room for an open game with chances on both sides.
Leverkusen is likely to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Mark Flekken is slated to start in goal, with Jarell Quansah, Loïc Badé, and Edmond Tapsoba available for the back three.
In the center, the signs point to Aleix García and Exequiel Palacios, while Patrik Schick is likely to lead the attack. With Lucas Vázquez unavailable, Arthur is the most likely alternative; and Martin Terrier’s absence also boosts Nathan Tella’s chances of starting, while the remaining roles are likely to be filled by the usual rotation.
Stuttgart – Leverkusen Head-to-Head & Stats
For a long time, draws characterized these encounters, but recently the pattern has shifted. From April 2024 to November 2024, three consecutive matches ended in draws, including a Super Cup final that Leverkusen won on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Since then, the picture has changed significantly.
In January 2026, Stuttgart won 4-1 in Leverkusen, and as early as 2025, Leverkusen had secured a 4-3 victory in Stuttgart. Four of the last five matches saw more than 3.5 goals scored, and in four of those, both teams found the net. Recent history therefore clearly points against a defensive match, even though the pressure in the standings is enormous for both sides.
