Key Facts
- Leipzig is the clear favorite but is under pressure following a 1-4 loss in Leverkusen, despite having won four straight games prior to that.
- St. Pauli is in a crisis after eight league games without a win and travels with a depleted defense (Mets, Saliakas, and Sands are out).
- David Raum’s return strengthens Leipzig’s attack on the left; Werner sees progress against deep-lying opponents.
- Head-to-Head: Four of the last five meetings saw under 2.5 goals; second halves were evenly matched.
- Despite the H2H record, the numbers point to goals: Leipzig’s last five games have averaged 3.4 goals, and St. Pauli has conceded at least one goal in each of their last matches.
- St. Pauli’s weak second halves could prove a decisive disadvantage against Leipzig’s superior squad depth, as seen against Heidenheim, Cologne, and Bayern.
Leipzig heads into Saturday’s Bundesliga clash with what Ole Werner described as another “match point” for Champions League qualification, while St. Pauli sits level on points with Wolfsburg after eight consecutive league games without a win. At the Red Bull Arena, the 1-1 draw from January 2026 in St. Pauli serves as a reminder that this matchup can remain uncomfortable for longer than expected.
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Date and time: May 9, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 33)
The bookmakers see Leipzig as clear favorites, but the safer bet might be a comfortable home win, as St. Pauli travels without Karol Mets and Manolis Saliakas, while David Raum returns. Over 2.5 goals also has its appeal: Leipzig has scored in every recent league match, while St. Pauli has conceded in all of theirs.
Leipzig Form & Record Check
Leipzig comes into this match following a sobering 1-4 loss in Leverkusen, a result that abruptly ended their best run of form this spring and revealed just how quickly their structure crumbles against superior counter-attacking play. Werner said the team lacked conviction in crucial moments, which felt understandable. Nevertheless, this defeat comes on the heels of a significantly stronger recent run of form than the result alone would suggest.
Prior to this setback, Leipzig had beaten Union Berlin, Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Mönchengladbach, and Werder Bremen, scored in each of their last five league games, and found the net with remarkable consistency after halftime. This trend is relevant here because Werner believes his team has improved against deep-lying opponents. David Raum’s return also restores an attacking option that St. Pauli is likely to struggle with.
Leipzig is expected to line up in a 4-3-3, with Maarten Vandevoordt – 26 replacing the injured Leopold Zingerle in goal. Willi Orbán – 4 and Castello Lukeba – 23 are expected to form the central defensive duo, Xaver Schlager – 24 could anchor the midfield, and David Raum – 22 is expected to start on the left wing again. With Ezechiel Banzuzi and Ayodele Thomas sidelined, Antonio Nusa – 7 is considered the most likely option up front.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
St. Pauli’s recent 1-2 home loss to Mainz had a familiar yet unsettling feel to it. Alexander Blessin spoke of avoidable mistakes that are breaking his team’s spirit, and that exact theme ran through the game once again: an unnecessary early deficit, the second goal conceded before halftime, then a late response from Abdoulie Ceesay that came too late. The overall picture is bleak: eight league games without a win, confidence clearly shaken.
The real problem is that the crisis is compounded by a spate of injuries. Karol Mets and Manolis Saliakas are both out, James Sands remains unavailable, and Blessin may have to deploy Eric Smith in defense once again. The recent results against Heidenheim, Cologne, and Bayern show that the team can keep up at times. But the second halves in particular have become a problem lately, which could be especially dangerous against Leipzig.
A 3-4-2-1 formation is expected, with Nikola Vasilj – 22 in goal. With Karol Mets and Manolis Saliakas out, Eric Smith – 8 could drop back into the back three alongside Hauke Wahl – 5, while Arkadiusz Pyrka – 11 is likely to take over the right side. James Sands remains sidelined, so Jackson Irvine – 7 should anchor the midfield. Andréas Hountondji – 27 is considered the most likely starter up front.
Leipzig – St. Pauli Head-to-Head & Stats
Recent head-to-head matches tell a clear story: This matchup is usually closer than the standings suggest. Since 2024, Leipzig has won twice, St. Pauli once, with two draws. Four of these five matches had fewer than 2.5 goals. The league match in January 2026 ended 1-1, Leipzig won the game at the Red Bull Arena in 2025 2-0, and in all five meetings, the second half was evenly matched.
