Key Facts
- AC Milan is under pressure to qualify for the Champions League and heads into the match as the clear favorite.
- Luka Modrić is out with a broken cheekbone, which noticeably weakens Allegri’s midfield planning and Milan’s control of the game.
- Sassuolo is missing key options in midfield and on the bench with Boloca, Candé, and Bakola out, which reduces their stability.
- Four of the last five matchups ended with more than 2.5 goals, suggesting a potentially open, high-scoring game.
- AC Milan has scored after halftime in all five of its most recent matches; Sassuolo has also scored in four of those games, making late-game goals likely.
- Given Milan’s current goal-scoring drought and Sassuolo’s recently improved defensive organization, a game where only one team finds the net is also a realistic possibility.
AC Milan returns to the Mapei Stadium, but this time with very different feelings than when they won the title in 2022. It’s not about silverware, but about defending a Champions League spot. Massimiliano Allegri’s team arrives after a tough 0-0 draw against Juventus, and Luka Modrić is out. Fabio Grosso’s Sassuolo, on the other hand, comes into this match in a more relaxed state, having performed well in the league recently and coming off a disciplined scoreless draw at Fiorentina.
The last league clash in December 2025 ended 2-2, which aptly describes the open nature of this encounter. The betting market still sees AC Milan as the clear away favorites in Serie A, but the question is whether this assessment holds up, whether the match will surpass the 2.5-goal mark, and whether the visitors’ pragmatic approach could once again leave Sassuolo goalless.
- Venue: MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
- Date and Time: May 3, 2026, 3:00 PM
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 35)
Bookmakers see AC Milan as clear away favorites, mainly because the visitors are under real Champions League pressure, while Sassuolo can play with significantly less pressure. The interesting aspect lies in the expected course of the game: Sassuolo continues to concede goals and will be without Fali Candé and Daniel Boloca, which supports both an away win and Over 2.5 goals. At the same time, Milan’s reduced fluidity without Luka Modrić also makes an away win without conceding a goal a credible option.
Sassuolo Form & Record Check
Sassuolo’s 0-0 draw at Fiorentina wasn’t spectacular, but it was well-deserved. Grosso’s team accepted a tight contest, stayed organized, and took home a result befitting a side no longer fighting for survival. This draw also extended a solid five-game run in the league in which Sassuolo has lost just once, even if their performances often required patience before they got going.
Wins against Como and Cagliari, as well as a draw at Juventus, showed that they can stay in games and capitalize on openings after the break. That has kept Sassuolo in a lively section of the table, just two points behind Bologna and two ahead of Udinese. The squad is thinner for this match, however, as Daniel Boloca, Darryl Bakola, and Fali Candé are unavailable.
Sassuolo is likely to stick with a 4-3-3 formation again. In this possible lineup, Stefano Turati – 13 would start in goal, in front of a back four consisting of Sebastian Walukiewicz – 6, Jay Idzes – 21, Tarik Muharemović – 80, and Ulisses Garcia – 23. With Fali Candé out and Daniel Boloca unavailable following arthroscopic surgery, the midfield could feature Ismaël Koné – 90, Nemanja Matić – 18, and Kristian Thorstvedt – 42.
Further up front, the threat in this as-yet-unconfirmed lineup is likely to come from Domenico Berardi – 10 and Armand Laurienté – 45, who will operate around Andrea Pinamonti – 99. This largely corresponds to Sassuolo’s usual attacking structure, with width on the wings and a clear focal point in the center of the attack. Darryl Bakola also remains unavailable, which somewhat limits the options at the defensive midfield position should Grosso wish to make substitutions.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
AC Milan’s scoreless draw against Juventus was useful in terms of the standings, but at the same time confirmed the impression of a team still searching for its attacking rhythm. The harder blow was Luka Modrić’s facial injury, which ends his league season and forces Allegri to reorganize the midfield. Jashari is expected to take on more responsibility; he brings energy but not quite the same level of control.
The broader league picture is mixed, with little sign of a clear identity. AC Milan beat Hellas Verona and Torino but lost to Napoli and suffered a heavy defeat against Udinese. As a result, the Milanese find themselves in a tight spot, two points behind Napoli and three ahead of Juventus. Interestingly, the defensive line looked more stable against Juventus. Whether Leão or Pulisic can pick up the pace in this match is likely to play a decisive role.
Nothing has been confirmed yet, but AC Milan is expected to line up in Massimiliano Allegri’s usual 3-5-2 formation.
Mike Maignan – 16 is likely to be protected by Fikayo Tomori – 23, Matteo Gabbia – 46, and Strahinja Pavlović – 31, while Alexis Saelemaekers – 56 and Davide Bartesaghi – 33 are expected to provide width as wingbacks.
The key personnel change is the absence of Luka Modrić, who is unavailable due to a broken cheekbone. According to recent reports, Ardon Jashari – 30 is expected to fill this gap. Should this prediction prove accurate, Youssouf Fofana – 19 and Adrien Rabiot – 12 would provide balance behind the expected strike duo of Christian Pulisic – 11 and Rafael Leão – 10.
Sassuolo – AC Milan Head-to-Head & Statistics
The 2-2 league draw in December 2025 extended a remarkable streak. AC Milan has scored in each of the last five head-to-head matches and found the net after halftime in all five games. This is relevant because Sassuolo has also scored in four of those matches. Even if the balance shifts, this matchup rarely stays quiet for long.
That’s why betting on a scoreless result seems a bit risky. Four of the last five meetings produced more than 2.5 goals, and four even surpassed the 3.5-goal mark. And the series isn’t one-sided: Sassuolo won 5-2 in 2023, AC Milan dominated 6-1 in the 2024 Cup, and narrowly secured another league match 1-0 in 2023 before the most recent game ended in a draw.
