Key Facts
- Leipzig enters the match as the clear third-place team, three points ahead of Stuttgart; a home win is crucial both on the field and financially for their Champions League ambitions.
- Leipzig is in good form (four wins in their last five Bundesliga matches), despite personnel issues and a defense that has been partly improvised.
- The absence of center back Willi Orbán and the questionable status of Castello Lukeba weaken Leipzig’s defense and remain their biggest vulnerability against an opponent that is dangerous on the road.
- In all five previous matches between the two teams, the first half remained scoreless; an early goal is likely to significantly influence the game.
- Union Berlin, under coach Eta, recently lost to Wolfsburg and trailed at halftime in four of their last five matches—this is tactically dangerous against Leipzig’s fast attack (Diomande, Nusa).
- Yan Diomande is in strong form; Leipzig’s wing play increases the chances of goals, making over 2.5 goals a realistic prospect (Leipzig’s last five games: average of 3.0 goals per match).
With an improvised defense, possibly again without Willi Orbán and Castello Lukeba, Leipzig will host Union Berlin at the Red Bull Arena on Friday evening. There’s a reason why Ole Werner’s team is still considered the clear favorite: they’ve won four of their last five Bundesliga matches, and as the third-place team, they’re three points ahead of Stuttgart in the race for a Champions League spot, which would also be significant for the club financially.
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Date and time: April 24, 2026, 8:30 PM
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 31)
The betting market already sees Leipzig as the clear favorite, which is why the real value lies more in the course of the game itself than in a mere home win. Union Berlin has recently started matches poorly, losing the first half in four of their last five games.
Leipzig Form & Record Check
The 3-1 win in Frankfurt was one of Leipzig’s more mature away performances recently, especially since the defensive line was patched together on the fly. Lukas Klostermann seized his opportunity, El Chadaille Bitshiabu also held his own, and the attack provided enough variety for Yan Diomande, Antonio Nusa, and Conrad Harder to decide the game after the break. This was all the more significant given the ongoing uncertainties surrounding Willi Orbán and Castello Lukeba. In their last five Bundesliga matches, Leipzig has won four, and the pattern is quite clear:
The Saxons pose a greater threat after halftime and look sharper on the wings than they did at the start of the spring season. The downside remains that they have continued to concede goals in recent matches, and third place in the table, with a three-point lead over Stuttgart, is still no reason to completely relax.
This is just a prediction, but Leipzig is likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Maarten Vandevoordt – 26 in goal behind the back four. The real problem lies in central defense: Willi Orbán is out, and Castello Lukeba remains doubtful, so Lukas Klostermann – 16 and El Chadaille Bitshiabu – 5 could continue. Ridle Baku – 17 and David Raum – 22 would provide width on the wings. In the projected system, Nicolas Seiwald – 13 and Xaver Schlager – 24 would form the double-six partnership, with Christoph Baumgartner – 14 behind them as the link to Rômulo – 40. On the wings, Johan Bakayoko – 9 and Yan Diomande – 49 are considered the biggest threats, especially since Diomande has recently impressed in the league. Ezechiel Banzuzi remains unavailable, which somewhat limits the depth in midfield.
Union Berlin Form & Record Check
The 2-1 loss to Wolfsburg was a frustrating debut for Union Berlin under Marie-Louise Eta, as the performance wasn’t hopeless, but the familiar problems resurfaced early on. They fell behind quickly, conceded a second goal shortly after the break, and didn’t find the net until late in the game through Oliver Burke. Still, Christopher Trimmel’s creative display and the surge of pressure in the closing stages suggested there is still something to be had from this team. Their league form, however, is hard to sugarcoat: In their last five games, Union Berlin have managed just one win and one draw, and they’ve been particularly vulnerable before halftime—which could prove dangerous against an opponent like Leipzig that gets off to a quick start. They are just two points behind Mainz and one ahead of Cologne, so the urgency is guaranteed, and Eta seems to have at least brought some intensity to the team.
Union Berlin is likely to line up in a 3-4-3 formation, maintaining their usual back three. In the expected starting lineup, Frederik Rönnow is in goal behind Danilho Doekhi – 5, Leopold Querfeld – 14, and Diogo Leite – 4, while Christopher Trimmel – 28 and Tom Rothe – 15 provide width. Rani Khedira – 8 and Aljoscha Kemlein – 6 are expected to anchor the midfield.
Leipzig – Union Berlin Head-to-Head & Statistics
This matchup has often started at a cautious pace. In all five previous meetings, the first half saw fewer than 1.5 goals, and Union Berlin failed to score before halftime in any of those matches. This trend is certainly relevant, as it suggests a game that may appear tight for 30 or 40 minutes before opening up. The results themselves have changed recently, however: Union Berlin won the first leg in December 2025 by a score of 3-1, after both teams had previously gone scoreless in two consecutive matches in September 2024 and February 2025. Prior to that, Leipzig had won 2-0 in 2024 and 3-0 in 2023. Although four of the last five matchups have had fewer than 3.5 goals, the most recent one has shown that this pairing doesn’t necessarily result in a low-scoring game.
