Key Facts
- St. Pauli is under immense pressure, trailing a non-relegation spot by just two points; Coach Blessin describes the remaining seven games as decisive “final matches.”
- St. Pauli’s defense is severely weakened: Eric Smith, Tomoya Ando, Lars Ritzka, and Manolis Saliakas are out, which significantly reduces defensive stability.
- Union has won four of the last five head-to-head matches against St. Pauli (no draws) and also won this season’s first leg 1-0 – clear dominance in this matchup.
- In four of the last five meetings, fewer than 3.5 goals were scored; furthermore, all five of St. Pauli’s most recent games saw fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half – both teams tend toward a controlled, unspectacular style of play.
- Union has recently put in strong performances (wins against Freiburg and Leverkusen), but was thrown off track by the 0-4 loss in Munich; with Augsburg level on points, additional pressure looms, which is why stability takes precedence over risk.
- Goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj returns with the momentum of a penalty shootout victory—a rare psychological boost for St. Pauli ahead of this crucial match.
Alexander Blessin calls his team’s remaining matches “seven finals,” and St. Pauli has its back against the wall, without even being able to call on Eric Smith. For Union Berlin, on the other hand, the home game at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei offers the chance to take a big step toward securing their place in the league. This gives Steffen Baumgart’s team a clear direction following the painful 0-4 defeat in Munich.
- Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
- Date and time: April 5, 2026, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 28)
The betting market sees Union as a clear, but not overwhelming, favorite, which fits a matchup that has usually been close in the past. In the first leg in Hamburg, Union won 1-0, and St. Pauli’s recent matches have often started slowly. The most interesting betting options therefore remain a home win, the under line, and a more ambitious Union handicap, should the visitors’ defensive absences ultimately prove decisive.
Union Berlin Form & Record Check
The market leans toward a home win but still shows genuine respect for the draw, which fits well for a tense relegation match. The value lies with Union, as St. Pauli is missing Eric Smith and several defensive players—a serious problem in a match that Union has controlled so far. Under 2.5 goals also aligns with both teams’ recent scoring rates, while the bolder Union handicap only becomes interesting if these absences allow Berlin to convert their control into clear scoring chances.
There hasn’t been a single draw in the last five head-to-head matches, and Union has won four of them. The current streak of three consecutive wins includes the 1-0 away victory in November 2025 and the 1-0 home win in 2024. The only break in this pattern was St. Pauli’s 3-0 win in January 2025.
The scoring trend has generally been modest. Four of the five matches saw fewer than 3.5 goals, Union scored in four of them, and the most recent encounters suggest controlled second halves rather than open, back-and-forth affairs. Interestingly, the older clashes from 2022 also followed a similar script, as Union won both the friendly and the cup match by a one-goal margin.
St. Pauli Form & Record Check
Union’s final performance before the break was sobering: a 0-4 debacle at Bayern, after which they never really found their way back into the game in the second half. That hurt all the more because it interrupted a thoroughly convincing run. Steffen Baumgart’s team had previously beaten Freiburg away and Leverkusen at home, displaying a compact defense and true discipline in both matches.
The fundamental problem remains consistency. When they sit deep and use Tom Rothe or Derrick Köhn to relieve pressure up front, they look significantly more solid. But if the structure opens up, as it did recently against Werder Bremen, the necessary cover is missing. In the last five league games, there hasn’t been a single draw, and with Augsburg right on their heels with the same number of points, stability is needed, not a willingness to take risks.
Union is likely to stick with their usual 3-5-2 formation under Steffen Baumgart, even if this is still just a prediction. Frederik Rönnow 1 is likely to be positioned between Danilho Doekhi (5), Leopold Querfeld (14), and Diogo Leite (4), while Josip Juranovic (18) and Derrick Köhn (39) are expected to provide width and early crosses.
In the center, Janik Haberer (19), Aljoscha Kemlein (6), and Rani Khedira (8) could feature, a combination that would give Union stability and strength in one-on-one situations. Up front, Tim Skarke (21) is likely to lead the attack alongside Andrej Ilic (23).
Since Matheo Raab, Robert Skov, and Livan Burcu remain sidelined, no major tactical changes are expected.
Union Berlin – St. Pauli Head-to-Head & Statistics
St. Pauli arrives in Berlin with the bitter aftertaste of a 1-2 home loss to Freiburg. The Kiezkickers took the lead through Danel Sinani but lost their way after the break, which is particularly painful because the team had played with discipline for long stretches. Alexander Blessin has openly addressed the tension in the final phase of the season, and the numbers prove him right: two points separate his team from a non-relegation spot, and three points lie between St. Pauli and Wolfsburg.
The form curve over the last few weeks isn’t entirely bleak, however. Before the Freiburg match, St. Pauli had picked up seven points from three games, including a 1-0 win at Hoffenheim and a draw against Frankfurt. Another notable point: In all five of their last matches, the first half saw fewer than 1.5 goals. The real problem lies elsewhere—in the squad. Eric Smith, Tomoya Ando, Lars Ritzka, and Manolis Saliakas are all out, which robs the defense of both experience and structural stability.
One small ray of hope is Nikola Vasilj, who returns on a high note: Bosnia defeated Italy in a penalty shootout, and Blessin hopes that this confidence will carry over to Berlin. St. Pauli will need it, as their pattern of cautious openings leaves little room for early mistakes.
