Important Facts
- Everton goes into the game in eighth place (40 points), just three points behind Brentford and level on points with Fulham – a win will keep them on course for European qualification.
- Burnley travel in 19th place (19 points), six points behind West Ham, and will have to improvise with many absences, including Tuanzebe, Roberts, Beyer, Broja and Amdouni.
- The 3-2 win at Newcastle showcased Everton’s attacking quality with assists from Garner and Dewsbury Hall and the decisive goal from Barry; at the same time, Moyes’ team conceded at least one goal again.
- Everton have been vulnerable at the Hill Dickinson Stadium recently (0-1 against Man United, 1-2 against Bournemouth); without Alcaraz and the long-term injured Grealish, McNeil, Ndiaye, and Dewsbury Hall carry the creative load.
- Clear trends favor “both teams to score”: Everton has conceded goals in five consecutive league games, Burnley has scored four times in a row but has conceded at least one goal in 12 consecutive games.
- Everton are clear favorites with an implied win probability of around 62%; recent head-to-head results and a strong home record (37 wins in 63 home games against Burnley) even support handicap bets.
For Everton, this Tuesday evening at Hill Dickinson Stadium is one of those games in which the scent of Europe suddenly feels very real, while Burnley arrives with its back against the wall. On matchday 29 of the Premier League, David Moyes’ Everton welcomes Scott Parker’s Burnley. Everton are eighth with 40 points, three behind Brentford and level on points with Fulham – so the chase for Europe is still very much on. Burnley are 19th with 19 points, six behind West Ham, and are more in need of points than in contention for any beauty prizes. The first leg ended 0-0 in December 2025. Interestingly, however, the appeal of this game lies in the combination: Everton wins because of the difference in personnel, both teams score: Yes, because both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in recent games, and as a bonus option, Everton wins by two goals if Burnley’s makeshift defense collapses.
- Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
- Date and time: March 3, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 29)
Everton’s winning scenario starts with the squad context: Burnley has a long injury list, which takes away Parker’s defensive options such as Tuanzebe, Roberts, and Beyer, and Broja and Amdouni are missing up front, which is important for depth.
Nevertheless, the safer bet is not for a clean sheet, as Everton have conceded at least once in each of their last five league games and Burnley have scored four times in a row – with Flemming and Bruun Larsen posing enough of a threat to find the net here too.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton comes into this game on the back of a lively 3-2 win at Newcastle, a game that showed both their strengths and the concerns that continue to plague them. Branthwaite set the tone early on after good work from Garner, Beto brought the necessary composure to the game, and when Newcastle equalized late on, the response was immediate: Dewsbury Hall set up Barry, who finished it off. It was fitting for the moment, but it also extended their streak of conceding at least one goal in each of their last five league games.
At least there is a common thread in attack that Parker can rely on, as the team has scored in four consecutive games, including a 3-2 win at Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw at Chelsea. The problem is that the negative trend in defense continues unabated. Burnley have conceded at least one goal in 12 consecutive games, and away from home they have been beaten in 14 league games in a row, with only one away win in their last nine. With Tuanzebe, Roberts, and Beyer all missing, any plan here is likely to quickly become one of damage control, unless they can consistently turn Ward Prowse’s set pieces to their advantage.
Burnley Form & Record Check
In the bigger picture, Moyes has had to balance decent league results with a home run that doesn’t quite match the ambitions of eighth place. Recent defeats at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, including 0-1 against Manchester United and 1-2 against Bournemouth, show how close it has been lately, especially when Everton loses control after the break. With Alcaraz missing and Grealish out long-term, the creative burden clearly falls on McNeil, Ndiaye, and Dewsbury Hall, who also have to score goals under pressure.
The last five encounters tend to favor Everton, even if the most recent one ended in a draw. Burnley and Everton played out a 0-0 draw in December 2025, before which Everton won the previous league encounter at home in 2024 by 1-0. In 2023, Everton won 2-0 away in the league and also beat Burnley 3-0 in the League Cup. Burnley’s only win in this series came in 2022, a 3-2 home victory.
Everton – Burnley Head-to-Head & Statistics
Burnley’s 4-3 defeat to Brentford pretty much summed up their season: chaotic, courageous, and ultimately damaging. They were three goals down early on and could easily have fallen apart, but instead they got back into the game, with Anthony and Flemming scoring and a late scramble in the box almost earning them a point. Barnes even thought he had equalized deep into stoppage time, but the goal was disallowed, and once again that familiar feeling of “almost” remained.
