Key Facts
- Genoa, in 14th place with 23 points, is level on points with Cremonese and under pressure, while Napoli, in third place (46), is chasing Milan and keeping Juventus at bay.
- Under De Rossi, Genoa has picked up two wins and two draws from five league games; Malinovskyi and Vitinha are delivering up front, but after low-scoring first halves, games often tip in the second half.
- Napoli responded to their 3-0 defeat at Juventus with narrow wins over Sassuolo and Fiorentina, with Vergara and Gutiérrez scoring, but remain vulnerable after the break.
- Conte has to improvise heavily due to absences such as Di Lorenzo, Anguissa, De Bruyne, Neres, and Politano; this will make Lobotka more central as the playmaker and the right side will likely be rebuilt again.
- Genoa is winless in five direct duels (2 losses, 3 draws) and has scored every time; four games have had over 2.5 goals, which supports the tips on Napoli (odds ~1.9) and Over.
For Genoa, every point counts at the Luigi Ferraris, as they are in 14th place in the table with 23 points and Cremonese are hot on their heels with the same number of points. On Saturday, however, Conte’s Napoli, who have very different goals, will be the opponents in the 24th matchday: third place with 46 points, four behind AC Milan and only one ahead of Juventus. In October 2025, Napoli won the direct duel 2-1, which only adds to the pressure on the hosts. This is precisely the context that explains the betting market, which clearly favors the visitors but considers a draw a realistic option. De Rossi spoke of a renewed squad and of the Ferraris being a “fortress,” but Conte’s team continues to have the sharper blade.
- Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
- Date and time: February 7, 2026, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 24)
A draw or away win as a double chance takes the market’s clear tendency toward a draw seriously, as Genoa has become difficult to beat at the Ferraris under De Rossi. Over 2.5 goals also looks appealing – Genoa’s 3-2 games against Bologna and Lazio point to open second halves.
Genoa form & record check
Genoa’s last five league games under De Rossi show a team that can turn momentum around. They drew 1-1 at AC Milan, beat Cagliari 3-0 and Bologna 3-2 at home, and drew 0-0 with Parma before losing 3-2 at Lazio. The wins were important for the points tally, but in Rome we also saw how quickly they can lose control. Interestingly, their games are often rather subdued at the start, with five first halves in a row remaining below 1.5 goals, and then suddenly things really get going after the break. Malinovskyi and Vitinha provide the firepower up front, but at the back, the defense has repeatedly paid for hasty actions, in Rome for example with three penalties, two of them for handball. De Rossi expects Amorim to add calmness to the midfield, which could help Napoli cope better with pressing.
De Rossi is likely to stick with Genoa’s usual 3-5-2 formation, with Bijlow the most likely choice between the posts. Marcandalli, Østigård, and Vásquez would be the obvious choices for the back three, flanked by full-backs Norton Cuffy on the right and Martín on the left. In midfield, Amorim could provide cover alongside Frendrup, giving Malinovskyi the freedom to pop up between the lines. Up front, Vitinha and Colombo are currently the most likely starting combination, especially as De Rossi favors deep runs and quick combinations in the penalty area. Set pieces will once again rely heavily on Malinovskyi’s crosses. Siegrist is still out with a broken finger and is expected to return on February 7, 2026, so any rotation in goal would be more likely to involve Leali than a change in system.
Napoli form & record check
Napoli’s league form has been less straightforward than their position in the table suggests. They responded to their 3-0 win at Juventus with a narrow 1-0 win over Sassuolo and then a 2-1 win over Fiorentina, with goals from Vergara and Gutiérrez.
In the Champions League, they drew 1-1 in Copenhagen and lost 3-2 to Chelsea, a defeat that ended the league phase on a sour note. Conte has had to juggle things around recently, with Di Lorenzo out long term and the options even more limited due to the absences of De Bruyne, Neres and Politano. Nevertheless, the pattern is clear: strong first halves, followed by a shaky defense, with goals conceded after the break becoming almost typical. Vergara said that working with Conte is like school, and it is precisely this sharpness that counts at Marassi, where a single lapse can quickly turn a lead into a tough battle.
Conte is likely to stick with his 3-4-2-1 formation, with Meret behind a back three of Beukema, Buongiorno, and Rrahmani. In this prediction, the wingback positions go to Gutiérrez on the left and Spinazzola on the right, while Lobotka and McTominay secure the midfield. Up front, Vergara and Elmas would operate between the lines behind Højlund. Napoli’s options remain limited: Di Lorenzo and Mazzocchi are out, so the right side could once again be occupied by Spinazzola instead of a trained specialist. Anguissa, Gilmour, and De Bruyne are missing in midfield, making Lobotka’s role as playmaker even more important. With Neres and Politano also missing, the attack could come more from tighter combinations, with Lukaku as the likely wild card.
Genoa – Napoli Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Genoa have failed to win any of their last five encounters with Napoli, with two defeats and three draws, and both sides have scored in each of those games. Napoli won 2-1 in October 2025, while the game ended 2-2 in May 2025. Going further back, Napoli’s 2-1 win in 2024 at the Ferraris came between 1-1 and 2-2 draws in 2024 and 2023. All five games broke the 1.5 goal mark, with four of them even exceeding 2.5, so the focus in this match is always on goals. Interestingly, the real push usually came after the break, with at least two goals scored in the second half in four of the five games. Even when Napoli had control at times, Genoa still found an answer and scored in every game in this series.
