Important Facts
- Atalanta is seventh (32 points) and under pressure between Como and Bologna; a home win would close the gap at the top and stabilize the gap at the bottom.
- Their recent league form has been controlled: three consecutive clean sheet wins (Roma, Bologna, Torino) before the 1-1 draw in Pisa, when chances were harder to come by at a slower pace.
- Despite four games without defeat, Parma have the lowest scoring offense; four of the last five games have had fewer than 2.5 goals and there has been no victory at half-time.
- The absences hit Parma particularly hard: goalkeeper Suzuki (broken hand) and striker Frigan are missing alongside Ndiaye and Almqvist, while Atalanta are without Bakker and Bellanova.
- In recent head-to-head matches, goals have been scored regularly: in five games, both teams scored and all went over 1.5; at the same time, Atalanta did not lose a single first half.
- The market sees Atalanta as the clear favorite with odds of 1.4; supported by five games without conceding a goal before the break and Parma’s weakest attack, “win to nil/under 2.5” seems plausible.
Parma comes to Bergamo on the back of a run of four league games without defeat, but still remains the league’s most harmless offense – and that is precisely what makes this match so appealing. On Sunday, January 25, Raffaele Palladino’s Atalanta Bergamo welcomes Carlos Cuesta’s Parma to the New Balance Arena for the 22nd matchday of Serie A. Atalanta is in 7th place in the table with 32 points, five points behind Como and only two points ahead of Bologna, so the pressure to keep the momentum going is palpable. The last league meeting in August ended 1-1 in Parma, and the previous visit here was also a tough one, with Parma winning 3-2 away. Atalanta’s league record looks solid overall, but recent uncertainties, most recently the 2-3 defeat in the Champions League against Athletic, have dampened expectations somewhat.
- Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Date and time: January 25, 2026, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 22)
The betting market makes Atalanta the clear home favorite, rating them at 1.4 – the trend is therefore clear. The more exciting question is which game plan will suit them: Palladino’s team should control the center through De Roon and Éderson, not least because the recent setbacks, including against Athletic, are still having an impact. Parma are coming off four games without defeat, but they still have the weakest attack in the league and are further weakened by the absences of Suzuki and Frigan.
Atalanta form & record check
Interestingly, Atalanta’s recent run in Serie A reads well: 1-0 against Roma, then 2-0 away in Bologna and 2-0 against Torino, before drawing 1-1 in Pisa. The victories looked mature, with clean sheets and controlled rhythm, but the draw in Pisa exposed a familiar problem: when the tempo slows down, creating chances can sometimes seem a little forced. The midweek defeat in the Champions League, 3-2 at home to Athletic Club, was a reminder that Palladino’s team is still learning the finer points of European football. Scamacca scored early and Krstović gave them hope late on, but the period after the break was messy, with three goals conceded between the 58th and 74th minutes. This can be interpreted as fatigue or simply poor defensive positioning. This fits in with a pattern that has been noticeable recently: the last five games have all had fewer than 1.5 goals before the break, Atalanta have not conceded a goal in the first half and have scored in every game. They are seventh in the league. Bakker is still out, Bellanova is reported as unavailable, and Raspadori is back for the league. De Roon is one yellow card away from suspension.
Palladino is likely to stick with his usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Carnesecchi behind a back three of Scalvini, Hien, and Kolasinac. Zappacosta and Bernasconi should provide width, while De Roon and Éderson set the pace and secure the transitions.
In attack, De Ketelaere and Raspadori are the most likely pairing under Scamacca, linking up play and getting between the lines. In terms of personnel decisions, this is still only a projection, but Bakker is out and Bellanova is also listed as unavailable, so the left side could rely heavily on Zappacosta, with Zalewski as the obvious alternative if adjustments are needed. There are no suspensions, but De Roon is one yellow card away from a suspension. Lookman could be the most important option off the bench if more pace is needed.
Parma Form & Record Check
Parma travels to Bergamo with a calmer demeanor, even if the points have come in small chunks. In Serie A, they played out a goalless draw against Genoa and another goalless draw in Naples, with a valuable 2-1 win at Lecce in between. Their recent run also includes a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo and a 2-0 home defeat to Inter, the only game in which they were clearly outplayed. It is striking how often their games remain tight, and the statistics confirm this. Four of their last five games have ended with under 2.5 goals, and Parma continue to have the lowest-scoring attack in the league. The first half is routinely cautious, with no wins at the break during this period. Cuesta’s defense, often anchored by Circati and Valenti, is organized, but too much creativity is demanded of Bernabé. They sit 13th in the table with 23 points, level on points with Cremonese above and Torino below, meaning every draw is both a safety net and a missed opportunity. Corvi’s saves have helped compensate for the injured Suzuki, and Ndiaye’s absence reduces the depth of the defense. With Almqvist and Frigan also missing, Pellegrino and Oristanio need cleaner passes, possibly from Valeri and Delprato.
Parma are likely to stick with the 5-3-2 that has given them a stable foundation lately, although nothing has been confirmed yet. Corvi should continue in goal as Suzuki is out with a broken hand. Britschgi, Delprato, Circati, Valenti, and Valeri are expected to start in defense, with Britschgi and Valeri providing most of the width as wingbacks. Up front, the prediction suggests that Oristanio will play alongside Pellegrino, a duo that emphasizes link-up play and second balls rather than pure speed. Bernabé should be the main playmaker in midfield, supported by Estévez and Keita in winning the ball and providing cover. With Ndiaye unavailable and Almqvist and Frigan also out, Cuesta may have fewer options in defense and attack than he would like.
Atalanta – Parma Head-to-head & Statistics
The record over the last five meetings is evenly balanced: two wins for Atalanta, two for Parma, and one draw. The most recent meeting in August 2025 ended 1-1, after Parma had narrowly won 3-2 away in May 2025. Atalanta’s last victory dates back to 2024, when they won 3-1. Parma also won a friendly 4-1 in 2024, while Atalanta won 5-2 in 2021. Goals have been consistent. All five games exceeded 1.5 goals in total, and four of them exceeded 2.5 and 3.5. Both teams scored every time, which translates into a five-game scoring streak for both teams in this matchup. Atalanta has also conceded goals in five consecutive games against Parma, so there have been no clean sheets in the recent past. The pace has often shifted after halftime. Atalanta has not lost the first half in these five games and has even put together three consecutive halftime leads, suggesting sharper starts. Parma, on the other hand, has developed a habit of responding after the break, scoring in the second half in four consecutive encounters. Interestingly, Atalanta has also conceded goals after halftime in four consecutive games, keeping comebacks possible.
