Key Facts
- Villarreal is third (41 points), level on points with Atlético, while Real is second (48), just one point behind Barça – a win would shift the momentum in the title race.
- After the end of their eight-game winning streak against Betis and their elimination by Ajax, Villarreal is lacking bite with Comesaña’s suspension; while Costa and Kambwala weaken the central defense.
- Real is riding high after a 6-1 win over Monaco and a 2-0 win over Levante, but will have to improvise without Tchouaméni, Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold.
- Real have won four and drawn one of the last five head-to-head matches; all games have had at least two goals, and Villarreal have lost the first half four times in a row.
- The away win is at 2.0; with Villarreal conceding in five games and Madrid scoring in each of their last five, “both teams to score” and over 2.5 goals are statistically likely.
More exciting than any fixture this time is a look at the table: Marcelino’s Villarreal, in third place, welcomes Álvaro Arbeloa’s Real Madrid, in second place, just one point behind Barcelona, to the Estadio de la Ceramica. The gaps are clear, with Madrid seven points ahead and Villarreal level on points with Atlético behind them, and a win could put the Yellow Submarine back in the title race – especially with the rescheduled trip to Levante still to come. Real are in strong form in the league and brimming with confidence after their 6-1 Champions League win over Monaco, but they will be without the suspended Tchouaméni, while Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold are still out. Villarreal, meanwhile, saw their eight-game winning streak in the league come to an end against Betis, then lost 2-1 to Ajax and were knocked out of Europe. Real won the last encounter 3-1 in October. Historically, Villarreal rarely goes into the break with a lead against Real, and the last five encounters have all produced at least two goals – often with an early strike from Real. Nevertheless, La Ceramica has not always been a comfortable place for the big teams, as the 4-4 draw here in 2024 is a fitting reminder.
- Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal
- Date and time: January 24, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 21)
In line with the starting position, the market is clearly betting on Madrid, with the away win at 2.0. Nevertheless, the value still lies with the visitors, because their surge in intensity under Arbeloa and Mbappé’s goal streak can cover up a makeshift defense and Tchouaméni’s suspension. Villarreal are reeling after their defeat to Betis and their exit from the Champions League, compounded by injuries in central defense. This smells like a narrow Madrid victory, with both teams scoring: Yes, and a game in which the goals are more likely to accumulate over the minutes than decide everything early on.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
Villarreal’s last two weeks have been a mix of solid league work and the familiar European sting. They beat Elche 3-1 and Alaves 3-1 with real power in the penalty area, but then stumbled in a 2-0 league defeat at Betis, where the rhythm and tackles clearly went to the opponents. In the Champions League, the 2-1 defeat to Ajax, decided in the 90th minute, fitted into the picture of a campaign that never really got going. It is striking how rarely Marcelino’s team slips into neutral. There have been no draws in the last five games, and every game has seen over 1.5 goals in total, even if the first halves are often tough. The timing of conceded goals is a cause for concern, as they come far too often late in the game. Against Ajax, a set piece and a move in stoppage time punished Villarreal’s carelessness after they had taken the lead. In La Liga, they are in third place with 41 points, level with Atlético Madrid and seven points behind Real Madrid, so the margin for error is suddenly slim again. A postponed trip to Levante continues to hang over the table and could reshuffle the chase. Comesaña’s red card at Betis takes away their bite in midfield this weekend, while Costa and Kambwala remain sidelined, putting additional pressure on Tenas and the decision-making of the back line.
Marcelino is likely to stick with his usual 4-4-2, with Tenas the likely starter in goal. In the predicted back four, Foyth and Cardona are expected to start at full-back, with Marín and Veiga forming the center-back pairing. In midfield, Pépé and Moleiro could start on the wings, while Partey and Parejo are expected to provide a mix of ball recovery and control. Up front, Moreno and Mikautadze look likely to form the attacking duo.
Real Form & Record Check
Real are progressing through the competitions with an uneven but clearly upward curve. The 6-1 win over Monaco in the Champions League was their most complete performance in weeks, with high tempo, aggressive pressing, and clinical finishing. Before that, there was a controlled 2-0 win in La Liga against Levante, but the scars are still deep after the 3-2 defeat to Barcelona in the Super Cup final and the 3-2 loss at Albacete, which meant elimination from the Copa del Rey. In La Liga, Arbeloa’s team is in second place with 48 points, just one point behind Barcelona and with a seven-point cushion over Villarreal. That’s a decent cushion for the top four, but in a title race where every away game counts, it’s not enough to take their foot off the gas. The trend is also clear: they don’t slip into draws, they either win or they get punished. Interestingly, the numbers point to games that open up after the break: over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of the last five games, and the second halves in particular have been eventful. They have also scored in each of these games, but in most of them they have also conceded goals, which fits with the impression. With Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold missing, the offense is currently carrying more responsibility than they would like.
Arbeloa is likely to stick with a 4-3-3 formation, with Courtois behind a newly formed back four. The forecast sees Carreras and Carvajal as full-backs, with Alaba alongside Huijsen in the center. The absence of Militão and Rüdiger makes this duo even more likely. In midfield, Valverde and Bellingham are expected to play to the left and right of Tchouaméni, supporting a front three of Vinicius, Mbappé, and Rodrygo, even though Tchouaméni is suspended according to the starting lineup. Given the recent emphasis on collective pressing, this expected starting eleven would once again require Mbappé and Vinicius to immediately chase the ball after turnovers, while Valverde covers the right half-space when Carvajal pushes far forward. With Mendy and Alexander Arnold missing, Fran García is the obvious alternative at left-back, while Asencio could be next in line as a center-back in the hierarchy if rotation is necessary. Nothing has been confirmed yet, but this structure seems the most plausible.
Villarreal – Real Head-to-Head & Statistics
Real Madrid has clearly dominated this fixture recently, with four wins and one draw from the last five games. The most recent meeting in October 2025 ended 3-1 in Madrid’s favor, and Real also narrowly defeated Villarreal 2-1 in March 2025. Previously, Madrid won 2-0 in 2024, while Villarreal’s only escape was a chaotic 4-4 draw in 2024. Goals have been a constant: all five games have seen over 1.5 goals, and four out of five have seen over 2.5. Madrid has scored in every game, Villarreal in four, which suggests a pattern: Madrid’s offense works well away from home, but clean sheets are by no means guaranteed. The outliers are also striking, the 4-4 in 2024 and the 4-1 in 2023. The most obvious series is evident before the break: Villarreal has lost the first half in four consecutive head-to-head matches, and in the same period, Madrid has scored before the break in four consecutive games. This explains why Villarreal has not recorded a single win at halftime in this five-game sample, and on top of that, they have conceded goals in all five final results. Villarreal is missing Costa and Cabanes, and Kambwala is also out, which could put the defense against Mbappé, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo to the test. However, Madrid are also missing options, with Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander Arnold all out. Interestingly, Villarreal’s best option could therefore be to keep the game open for as long as possible so that Parejo, Moreno, and Ayoze Pérez can find space later on.
