Important Facts
- Bologna is eighth with 30 points in a tight field; a win could bring them closer to Atalanta, while Lazio is pressing hard, two points behind.
- The 3-2 win in Verona ended a 50-day drought; Orsolini scored there and leads Bologna’s resurgence as the top Italian scorer with seven goals.
- Florence travels in 18th place with 14 points, picking up points in four of their last five games, but often fading after the break.
- In terms of personnel, Lucumi’s thigh injury and Bernardeschi’s absence weigh heavily on Bologna, while Florence loses Lamptey (cruciate ligament) and coach Vanoli to suspension.
- In a direct comparison, all five first halves remained under 1.5 goals and Florence never scored before the break; Bologna’s run of conceding goals and both teams’ recent 80% scoring rates suggest “both teams to score.”
- The bookmakers give Bologna clear preference at home with odds of 2.2, but the draw at 3.3 seems a real possibility given the recent 2-2 game.
Between European dreams and relegation worries, a lot will be at stake on Sunday, January 18, at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara when Vincenzo Italiano’s Bologna host Paolo Vanoli’s AC Florence in the 21st round of Serie A. Bologna are eighth with 30 points, just two behind Atalanta and two ahead of Lazio – so it’s all about positions in the race for Europe. Florence is in eighteenth place with 14 points, three behind Lecce and level on points with Pisa, so every point counts. Bologna arrives with a much-needed boost from its 3-2 win in Verona, its first league victory in more than 50 days, started by Orsolini’s opening goal and supported by strong contributions from Odgaard and Castro. Cambiaghi’s return provides an additional option on the wing, Skorupski is back in the squad, but Lucumí and Bernardeschi remain sidelined; winter signing Helland arrives at just the right time to provide cover in defense. Florence’s position in the table looks bleak, but their league form has stabilized, with points in four of their last five games, including a 1-1 draw with Milan, in which Comuzzo scored from Gudmundsson’s assist. Vanoli is serving a suspension on the sidelines, while Lamptey remains sidelined. The last meeting ended 2-2 in October, suggesting this derby could be a close affair – even if the betting market clearly favors Bologna and a draw is considered a real possibility.
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Date and time: January 18, 2026, 3:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 21)
The bookmakers see FC Bologna as clear favorites at home (odds of 2.2), while a draw is quite tempting at 3.3. Nevertheless, I am more inclined to go with “Bologna to win” because the Rossoblù are riding the momentum from their 3-2 win in Verona and Orsolini is simply scoring goals at the moment. Without Lucumí in defense and with Kean as a permanent target, “Both teams to score: Yes” seems logical; moreover, Cambiaghi’s return supports the idea of over 1.5 goals in the second half.
FC Bologna Form & Record Check
Bologna are eighth with 30 points, and it’s tight around them in the table, just two points behind Atalanta above them and two points ahead of Lazio below them. The 3-2 win in Verona, their first league win in more than 50 days, has stabilized the mood, but at the same time shown how narrow the margin is if they want to stay in the race for Europe. In Verona, they were wide awake before the break, with Orsolini, Odgaard, and Castro turning an early scare into a 3-1 halftime lead, but things got tough and nervous at the back after Freuler’s own goal. The 1-1 draw in Como and the 1-1 draw against Sassuolo felt like points dropped, while the 3-1 defeat to Inter and the 2-0 defeat to Atalanta exposed gaps in their defensive control. The statistics point to a recurring pattern:
Bologna have conceded in each of their last five league games, always after the break, and they have not won a second half in that period. Four of those games were under 1.5 goals at halftime, but then opened up, with all games ending up over 1.5. Italiano has Skorupski back, Lucumí and Bernardeschi are still out, while Cambiaghi returns and Helland adds extra depth.
Italiano is likely to stick with his usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Skorupski in goal behind Holm, Vitík, Heggem, and Miranda. With Lucumí still out with a thigh injury, Vitík and Heggem look like the most likely center-back pairing. Casale is the obvious alternative if there is a late change shortly before kick-off. In midfield, Freuler and Pobega are expected to play as a double six, allowing FC Bologna to stay compact and Odgaard to bring the ball between the lines. Orsolini should start on the right wing as the most important driving force with the ball at his feet, with Domínguez on the left and Castro up front as striker. Bernardeschi is still out, but Cambiaghi is back in contention after serving his shortened suspension.
Florence Form & Record Check
AC Florence travels to Bologna in 18th place with 14 points, and the air is thin in the relegation battle. Lecce are three points ahead, Pisa are level on points behind them. Their recent league form looks more stable, with two wins and two draws from their last five games, and a Conference League play-off against Jagiellonia already on the horizon. However, their goal difference of minus 10 shows how often decent spells come to nothing before they really take control. Last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Milan felt like a missed opportunity: Comuzzo scored after Gudmundsson’s assist, then Florence switched off late and paid for it. The 2-2 draw at Lazio was chaotic, with the referee debate drowning out the football, but the fact that they couldn’t control the moment was again down to them. In between, there was a solid 1-0 win against Cremonese, a meager 0-1 loss in Parma, and, as an exclamation point, a 5-1 win against Udinese. A pattern is emerging: Florence’s games start tightly, often ending in a draw at halftime. In this five-game phase, they have not conceded a goal in the first half, but in most games they have conceded after the break, which smacks of flagging energy and problems in the gaps late in the game. Vanoli is serving a suspension on the sidelines in Bologna after his red card against Milan, and without Lamptey, the width depends mainly on Gosens and Dodô.
Vanoli is likely to stick with his usual 4-3-3, with de Gea in goal behind a back four of Dodô, Comuzzo, Pongracic, and Gosens. The midfield trio of Mandragora, Fagioli, and Ndour would give Florence a clear organizer plus two runners, while Solomon and Gudmundsson are expected to apply pressure on the wings around Kean as the central playmaker. The one clear absence is Lamptey, who remains sidelined after cruciate ligament surgery, making Dodô the obvious choice at right back once again. If Florence needs more control late in the game, Ranieri could move into defense, and Parisi is a one-to-one alternative on the left. It’s also worth noting that Vanoli is suspended for one game, so this remains more of an educated guess than a confirmed starting eleven.
FC Bologna – Florence Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five encounters, Bologna has had the upper hand in terms of results after 90 minutes, with two wins to AC Florence’s one, plus two games ending in a draw after 90 minutes. The most recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw in October 2025, while in May 2025 AC Florence stole a 3-2 win from Bologna, the Florentines’ only league victory in this series. Bologna’s two wins both came at home in 2024, a 2-0 and a 1-0, and in both games they did not concede a goal. Interestingly, AC Florence has not scored in the first half in any of these five encounters. So if Bologna takes the lead, the pattern suggests that they are more likely to manage the game rather than having to chase it. The clearest trend is how tight these games have been: all five have had under 1.5 goals in the first half, and the last three have had under 2.5 goals in total, as well as under 3.5. Nevertheless, Bologna has found a way to score in four of the five games, often after the break, while AC Florence has conceded goals in the second half in four games. In terms of personnel, Bologna will be without Lucumí at the back and Bernardeschi up front, which could place more responsibility on Casale, Vitík, Orsolini, and Immobile in terms of balance and punch. AC Florence will be without Lamptey, which means the away team’s options on the right side are thinner. If you take the rhythm of these direct duels, it could again depend more on moments in the second half than on early sustained pressure.
