Important Facts
- Milan is second (43 points), three behind Inter and three ahead of Napoli; Lecce is 17th with 17 points, just above the relegation zone—every point is precious for both teams.
- Milan is unbeaten in five Serie A games and has scored in every second half; four of the last five first halves have had fewer than 1.5 goals.
- Maignan is Milan’s safety net with 17 goals conceded and ten clean sheets; at the same time, Pavlović, Gimenez and probably Füllkrug are missing, while Lecce is missing Camarda (shoulder injury).
- Lecce travels with only one point from five league games; especially after the break, as they have lost every second half and failed to score.
- Head-to-head matches clearly favor Milan: five wins in a row, 14:2 goals and four clean sheets; as a tip, we suggest “Milan wins the second half” (80% vs. 100%).
Between the title race and the pressure of relegation, there is little room for compromise in this match, as the second-placed team hosts the 17th-placed team in the table. On Sunday, January 18, Massimiliano Allegri’s AC Milan will face Eusebio Di Francesco’s US Lecce at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on matchday 21. Milan are three points behind Inter and three ahead of Napoli with 43 points, while Lecce are 17th with 17 points, three ahead of Fiorentina. Milan seem more stable again after a few draws, winning two of their last three league games and showing their strength again after the break in Thursday’s 3-1 comeback at Como. Nkunku equalized from the penalty spot and Rabiot sealed the win, while Pulisic, who has not been involved in a goal in four games, was left out in Como and is likely to return. Gimenez remains sidelined, as does Pavlović, and Füllkrug is reportedly recovering from a toe injury. Lecce arrive in poor league form, which has not met Di Francesco’s expectations in the relegation battle so far, even if the 1-0 defeat at Inter showed that they can remain organized. Center back Gabriel has even attracted interest from Newcastle, but Di Francesco will have to do without Camarda up front.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: January 18, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 21)
With the betting market clearly favoring Milan at 1.3, the real value lies in how they win. Allegri’s team often picks up the pace after the break, and with Pulisic back from a breather and Rabiot and Nkunku providing late punch, “Milan wins the second half” fits well with Lecce’s collapse after the break.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
AC Milan are riding high in the league, unbeaten in five Serie A games, and the 3-1 comeback win in Como was the clearest statement of intent. They were pinned back early on but still found a way through, with Nkunku’s penalty calming the nerves before Rabiot took command after the break. In second place with 43 points, they are three behind Inter and three ahead of Napoli, so every draw now feels costly. The two 1-1 draws, in Florence against Fiorentina and at home against Genoa, showed both resilience and a certain bluntness up front. Nkuku’s finish in the 90th minute in Florence saved a point, but the performance was lackluster for a long time until they picked up the pace late on. Against Genoa, Milan had enough chances, but lacked precision, symbolized by Fofana’s big miss. Pulisic, who was rested against Como, has been waiting for a goal involvement for four games and needs to be more decisive in the final third. It is striking how Allegri’s team grows into games. Four of their last five first halves have seen fewer than 1.5 goals, but they have scored in all five after the break, remaining undefeated in that run. Maignan remains the bedrock, with 17 goals conceded in 21 league games and 10 clean sheets speaking for themselves. Pavlović’s head injury and Gimenez’s long absence are limiting the options, and Füllkrug’s toe problem could further thin out the presence in the penalty area.
Allegri is likely to opt for a back three at Milan, with Maignan behind Tomori, Gabbia, and De Winter. Saelemaekers and Estupiñán are expected to provide width as wing-backs, while Fofana, Ricci, and Rabiot form the center. Up front, Pulisic is expected to play close to Nkunku, with the clear plan of getting into the penalty area early. Two absences continue to set the tone. Pavlović is out with a head injury, so the back three will likely remain as described above, and Gimenez remains a long-term absentee after ankle surgery. Füllkrug is expected to miss this game with a broken toe, which could open up minutes for Leão off the bench. Tactically, Allegri’s team should remain compact, press when necessary, and rely on Rabiot’s runs and Maignan’s reliability.
Lecce Form & Record Check
Lecce comes to San Siro on the back of a league run that has flattened out at the worst possible time. They are 17th in the table with 17 points, just two behind Cagliari above them and three ahead of Fiorentina below them, so every narrow defeat now feels really costly. In their last five Serie A games, they have had one draw and four defeats, with their confidence crumbling, especially late in games. The 1-0 defeat at Inter was actually a step forward in terms of organization. Di Francesco kept them compact, Falcone kept them in the game with several strong saves, and Veiga benefited from a VAR check that resulted in a penalty being retaken. The problem was up front, with Lecce struggling to maintain pressure, and when the decisive rebound fell at their feet in the 78th minute, their legs seemed heavy. The results speak for themselves: Parma won 2-1 at Via del Mare, Roma won 2-0, and Como punished them 3-0. The only point came in a 1-1 draw at Juventus, but that didn’t spark any momentum. A pattern is hard to miss: decent first halves, then trouble after the break. Lecce has lost every second half in its last five league games and hasn’t scored a single goal in that phase. Interestingly, the season has not been without individual bright spots. Gabriel has been dominant in the air and in duels, and scouting connections underscore his rise, but Lecce’s approach of limited possession can lead to the defensive line having to defend wave after wave. January signings Gandelman, Ngom, and Fofana bring more depth, but with Camarda out with a shoulder injury, Di Francesco needs more punch from Banda, Sottil, and Stulic.
Di Francesco is likely to stick with Lecce’s basic formation of four defenders, two defensive midfielders, three attacking midfielders, and one striker, with Falcone behind a back four of Veiga, Siebert, Gabriel, and Gallo. In midfield, Coulibaly and Maleh are the obvious choices to shield the ball and initiate transitions, while Pierotti, Gandelman, and Sottil would support Stulic up front in this game. Camarda remains sidelined with a shoulder injury, so the number 9 role is likely to go to Stulic, with Banda or Morente the more likely attacking alternatives from the bench. Interestingly, Gabriel is already attracting interest from Premier League scouts, and his dominance in the air could once again be key in an approach that relies on compact defending, quick passes to Sottil, and set pieces.
AC Milan vs. Lecce Head-to-Head & Statistics
AC Milan have won five of their last five encounters with US Lecce, without a draw. The most recent game was in September 2025 in the Coppa Italia, a 3-0 win, after a 2-0 away win in the league in August 2025. In Serie A, the score was 3-2 in March 2025, and both games in 2024 ended 3-0. This series seems like a clear sign of control. Milan has scored 14 goals and conceded only 2, with four clean sheets. Lecce has failed to score in four of five games, and each match has had a total of over 1.5 goals. Four out of five also went over 2.5, including a three-game streak of 3-0, 3-0, 3-2 from 2024 to March 2025. Interestingly, the one afternoon Lecce really kept up with an open game was in March 2025, scoring two goals but still losing 3-2 in the end. Otherwise, Milan has consistently stepped up after the break and won the second half in four of these five matches. It’s quite possible that Lecce has the best chance of still being on level terms at halftime, because whoever has had to chase the game in this fixture has usually seen Milan add further goals. For the next chapter, the availability list counts more than nostalgia, with Pavlović and Gimenez currently missing for Milan and Camarda for Lecce. Nevertheless, the direct picture is pretty clear: Milan has won five games in a row against Lecce, scoring in all five, and Lecce has not even managed a draw in this sample.
