Eight years after the last Bundesliga clash at the Volksparkstadion, this fixture is finally back on the stage: on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at 7:30 p.m., when Merlin Polzin’s Hamburger SV welcomes Kasper Hjulmand’s Bayer 04 Leverkusen on matchday 17. HSV starts in 13th place in the table with 16 points and a goal difference of minus 10, sandwiched between Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg, both one point away. Vuskovic was one of the few real bright spots, freshly crowned with the goal of the month for December, but the 2-1 defeat in Freiburg – largely down to a man after Elfadli’s sending off – showed how quickly momentum can turn, especially with unrest off the pitch following Kuntz’s departure. Leverkusen travel in fourth place with 29 points and a goal difference of plus 10, level on points with Leipzig and Stuttgart – every slip-up counts. The sting of the 4-1 home defeat to Stuttgart should sharpen their focus, even if Hjulmand’s possession-based blueprint is not yet perfect in every detail. The last league match here ended 1-2 in 2018, and the bookmakers see the visitors as clear favorites.
- Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- Date and time: January 13, 2026, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (matchday 17)
Looking at the betting markets, the bookmakers clearly favor Leverkusen away, with odds of 2.0, and with Glatzel and Poulsen missing for HSV, Elfadli suspended after Freiburg, and the Kuntz echo still resonating, the visitors’ advantage seems entirely plausible. Nevertheless, the value that appeals to me most is in the goals: Hamburg’s patched-up defense and Leverkusen’s wobble after Stuttgart should push the game over 2.5 goals, and after the break, it should open up further for over 1.5 goals – 2nd half.
HSV Form & Record Check
HSV goes into the 17th matchday in 13th place in the table with 16 points, Bremen is one point ahead and Wolfsburg one point behind, so it could hardly be any closer at the bottom. Their league form has been inconsistent, with frequent slow starts, and they haven’t won a first half in their last five games. Across all competitions, they have scored in each of these games and also conceded a goal in each, with all games seeing over 1.5 goals. The 2-1 defeat in Freiburg pretty much summed up the problem: decent spells, but too much time spent in survival mode. Vuskovic gave them the lead early in the second half, then Elfadli’s second yellow card led to a penalty and turned the game on its head. Even taking into account Polzin’s anger at the unpunished elbow against Torunarigha before Matanovic’s goal, HSV were clearly the weaker team overall and once again looked surprisingly passive. Before that, the 1-1 draw against Frankfurt felt like a missed opportunity to really gain momentum, while the 1-4 defeat in Hoffenheim showed how quickly their organization falls apart when the pressing is outplayed. The bright spot remains the 3-2 derby win against Bremen, crowned by Vuskovic’s award-winning finish, but the cup exit against Kiel on penalties still stings. With Glatzel and Poulsen missing and Elfadli suspended, it will be crucial how quickly Downs steps up.
Polzin is likely to stick with a back three and build a basic formation of 3 at the back, 4 in midfield, and 3 up front. Heuer Fernandes should start behind Capaldo, Vuskovic, and Torunarigha, with Jatta and Muheim as aggressive wingbacks. Lokonga and Remberg seem most likely to start as double sixes, allowing Vieira to move inside in the half-spaces behind Downs and Dompé. Up front, it’s quite a prediction, marked by absences. Glatzel is still out with a torn muscle fiber and Poulsen remains sidelined with an ankle injury, making Downs the obvious candidate for the top spot, with Königsdörffer as an alternative from the bench. Defensively, Omari is unavailable and Soumahoro is questionable, while Elfadli is suspended after his red card in Freiburg.
Leverkusen Form & Record Check
Leverkusen is fourth with 29 points, and the battle for Champions League spots is as tight as it gets, with RB Leipzig ahead and Stuttgart behind, both on equal points. That alone describes the recent inconsistency: the potential for improvement remains high, but the margin for error is practically zero. In the league, the last few weeks have fluctuated between convincing control and sudden defensive lapses. The restart could hardly have gone worse, with a 1-4 home defeat to Stuttgart, basically decided at halftime, with too many cheap breakthroughs into the penalty area and little resistance after falling behind. Before the break, they impressed with a 3-1 win in Leipzig and a solid 2-0 win against Cologne, but the 2-0 defeat in Augsburg showed how blunt they can be when their rhythm and intensity drop. The 2-2 draw against Newcastle felt like points dropped. In their last five games in all competitions, there have been more than 1.5 goals in each game, and they have scored in four, often improving after the break, but they have also conceded in four. Hjulmand wants a patient, possession-oriented team, but the team can be pulled apart if the transitions are not properly secured, and discipline has wavered at key moments. Grimaldo’s quality from set pieces and Andrich’s cover remain pillars, while Ben Seghir’s absence somewhat curtails the variability in attack.
Hjulmand is likely to stick with his usual 3-4-2-1 formation, with Flekken behind a back three of Quansah, Tapsoba, and Belocian. Grimaldo and Vázquez will provide balance by spreading the play wide, while Andrich and García dictate the tempo in central midfield. Behind Schick, Tillman and Tella are the most likely duo between the lines. Poku and Maza are alternatives. The selection is affected by absences: Palacios, Hofmann, Terrier, and Sarco are currently not eligible to play in Champions League games, Ben Seghir is away with the national team, and Kofane is playing for Cameroon at the AFCON. This puts even more responsibility on Tillman to link the midfield with the attack and on Schick to finish off counterattacks. If Hjulmand wants more stability, Badé could come in, and Fernández is an alternative for midfield.
HSV – Leverkusen Head-to-head comparison & statistics
Bayer 04 Leverkusen has won four of the last five Bundesliga matches between the two sides, with HSV winning one and no draws. The goal tally also points in the same direction: 9 goals for Leverkusen, 3 for HSV. It is striking that HSV failed to score in three of these games. Even when HSV kept it close, Leverkusen usually found a way to pull it off in the end. The results tell a pretty clear story: in 2018, it ended 1-2 in Hamburg, with Leverkusen winning after a 3-0 home win for Leverkusen in 2017. HSV celebrated its only success in this sample in 2017 with a 1-0 win at home. In 2016, Leverkusen won 3-1 at home and also squeezed out a 1-0 win, also in Leverkusen. This means that three of the five games were decided by just one goal. Interestingly, the early stages were often tough. In three consecutive head-to-head matches spread across 2017 and 2018, the first half remained below 1.5 goals, and across all five games, HSV never scored before the break. The final scores also remained below 3.5 goals in four of the five games. However, as the last match was back in 2018, tactical familiarity is likely to be limited due to personnel changes.
