Ten home wins in a row, third place in the Premier League, and yet the feeling that Aston Villa’s run is on thin ice. It is in this very situation that Unai Emery’s team welcomes Nottingham Forest to Villa Park, with third playing against seventeenth. During the week, they suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat at Arsenal, but Birmingham remain firmly in the title race, just two points behind Manchester City and six ahead of Liverpool. For Forest, this trip comes in the midst of a form crisis under Sean Dyche, with just one win in five league games and only one goal in the last three. They are in seventeenth place with 18 points, just four points ahead of West Ham, and expectations following heavy spending in the summer and their push into the Europa League have so far been significantly missed, although the possible return of Ola Aina at full-back could help in a performance focused on staying up. Nevertheless, recent head-to-head encounters promise more excitement than the table suggests, with the last five league games always producing a winner and at least two goals, Villa narrowly ahead of Forest with three wins to two. The most recent meeting at Villa Park ended 2-1 to Emery’s side in April, suggesting that Forest may be able to keep the game closer than the odds suggest.
- Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
- Date and time: January 3, 2026, 1:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 20)
The market therefore favors a clear home win and even a clean sheet, but Villa’s recent defensive weaknesses and Forest’s individual threat from Anderson and Hudson-Odoi suggest goals at both ends and a lively second half if Dyche opens up his team as the game progresses.
Aston Villa Form & Record Check
Aston Villa go into the game against Forest with one of the most interesting form curves in the league. They are in third place with 39 points, just two behind Manchester City and already six ahead of Liverpool, meaning they are no longer just contenders for the top four, but a real factor in the title race. The 4-1 defeat at Arsenal may have slowed their momentum, but they have consistently exceeded expectations throughout the fall. They have won four of their last five games in all competitions, and each of those games has been high-scoring. The run includes a 2-1 comeback win at Chelsea in the league, narrow 3-2 league wins at West Ham and 2-1 at home against Manchester United, and a 2-1 win away at Basel in the Europa League. Only the game at Arsenal was an outlier, as their defensive organization fell apart after the break. The patterns behind this are clear: Villa have scored in each of these five games, but have also conceded goals, mostly early on, and they almost never win the first half, but dominate after the break. They have won four of their last five second halves and usually finish games stronger than their opponents, which speaks to both their fitness and Unai Emery’s ability to influence games from the bench. In terms of personnel, much fits into this picture, with Watkins once again the key man, his brace at Chelsea and late response at Arsenal underlining his status as the most important target man in attack, supported by Rogers and Malen. Behind them, Martinez, Konsa, and Lindelöf shoulder an enormous amount of work without keeping many clean sheets, while Mings’ injury and Guessand’s absence at the AFCON leave Emery a little short on defensive depth and alternative striker options.
Aston Villa are expected to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation in our prediction, with Martínez in goal behind a back four of Cash, Konsa, Lindelöf, and Digne. Onana and Tielemans form the double six, while Sancho, Buendía, and Rogers operate behind Watkins and support him in attack. This formation combines ball control with vertical penetration, although the definitive starting eleven is still subject to change. In this prediction, Konsa and a resurgent Lindelöf remain in central defense, with Mings still out with thigh problems. Guessand is away on international duty, which reduces the width on the wings somewhat. In this scenario, Rogers and Sancho start around Buendía, while McGinn or Malen could easily move into the starting lineup if Emery wants more energy or more direct running on the wings, leaving room for adjustments.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Nottingham Forest travel to Villa Park in an uncomfortable position in the league. They are 17th in the table with 18 points from 19 games, just three points behind Leeds but four ahead of West Ham, so the relegation picture is tightening up again. Three consecutive Premier League defeats, capped by a 2-0 home loss to Everton, stand in stark contrast to the optimism generated by Sean Dyche’s appointment, last season’s seventh-place finish, and heavy investment in the squad. Across competitions, the picture is mixed, with Forest beating Tottenham 3-0 in an aggressive, forward-thinking performance and winning 2-1 at Utrecht in the Europa League, but this high point was followed by narrow league defeats to Fulham and Manchester City, as well as a heavy 2-0 defeat to Everton, a run of three games in which Forest scored just one goal and created few clear-cut chances. The latest figures underscore this inconsistency, with two wins and three defeats in their last five games in all competitions and none of those games ending in a draw, meaning Forest are fluctuating between flourishing and slumping. Every first half in this series has seen fewer than 1.5 goals scored, while four of these five games have seen more than 1.5 goals scored in full time, with Forest conceding goals at a similar rate. Interestingly, the broader metrics continue to be rather positive, with Forest collecting 23 points from 13 games in all competitions over the past two months, plus a positive adjusted goal difference that has earned them 18th place in a ranking of Europe’s most in-form teams. Dyche’s first nine league games brought 13 points and progression in the Europa League, although the current domestic slump shows that this foundation is still fragile. Personnel problems exacerbate this volatility, with Woods’ knee surgery taking a goal-hungry striker out of contention and Kalimuendo struggling with rhythm problems and already being linked with a return to Ligue 1. Add to that Ndoye’s calf problem, Yates’ thigh injury, and Sangaré and Boly’s international commitments, which limits Dyche’s options and puts additional pressure on Anderson, whose form has attracted interest from Manchester City, as well as Hudson-Odoi and Gibbs-White, who are expected to provide attacking spark. Tactically, Dyche continues to search for the right balance. The defeat to Everton was marked by 70.1% possession and 52 crosses, but yielded little in the way of penetration, prompting him to call for a better mix of short passing and more direct play. The expected return of Aina, who can switch flanks, along with Williams and Zinchenko, could be crucial in making Forest’s defensive structure tighter and more compact.
At Nottingham Forest, Dyche is expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation, and our prediction reflects that, with Victor in goal behind a back four of Williams, Milenkovic, Murillo, and Zinchenko. Anderson and Douglas Luiz are expected to anchor the central midfield, with Anderson driving the pressing and switching play, Gibbs-White taking on the number 10 role, flanked by Ndoye and Hudson-Odoi, with Jesus in the center of the attack. Dyche could make a few changes to the lineup, but the basic formation is likely to remain similar. Injuries and absences have shaped this predicted lineup, with Ndoye doubtful due to a calf problem, so Bakwa or Hutchinson could be used on the wings. Aina is an option and offers an additional alternative at full-back, although Williams retains his place in our prediction. Boly and Sangaré are on international duty, Yates is unavailable, and Woods’ knee surgery leaves Jesus, Awoniyi, and Kalimuendo as options up front.
Aston Villa – Nottingham Head-to-Head & Statistics
Over the last five meetings, dating back to 2023, Aston Villa has a narrow lead with three wins to Nottingham Forest’s two, with no draws; this rivalry has recently been characterized by clear-cut results. Home advantage has been a recurring theme, with Villa hosting Forest three times during this period and winning each time, most recently with a 2-1 victory in April 2025 after earlier wins in 2024 and 2023. Forest responded with two home wins at their own stadium, 2-1 in 2024 and 2-0 in 2023, meaning that neither away team was able to prevail. In terms of goals, the encounters remained consistently open without descending into chaos, with all five games ending with at least two goals, four of them remaining under four, and both teams scoring in three of the five duels. A recurring detail concerns the period after the break: in four of these five games, Forest scored in the second half and Villa conceded just as often during this period. Combined with the absence of draws, this sends a clear message to Unai Emery and Sean Dyche that concentration is required until the final whistle in this duel, rather than managing a point early on.
