A Madrid derby in which both teams are struggling to stay afloat rather than dreaming of Europe: At the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas, Iñigo Pérez’s Rayo Vallecano welcomes José Bordalás’ Getafe on matchday 18 of La Liga. Rayo goes into this duel in 15th place in the table with 18 points, just above the danger zone, while Getafe is in 11th place with 20 points. Both teams are carrying heavy baggage: Rayo had a strong 2025, finishing eighth last season and reaching the round of 16 in the Conference League, but is now stumbling into this derby with seven league games without a win and only one goal, just three points above the relegation zone. Getafe are hardly doing any better. After three consecutive league defeats without scoring and a cup exit in Burgos, their own press is already talking about a free fall. At least Rayo has not lost in its last five league games against Getafe, all with under 2.5 goals, including a 1-0 win here in May. However, the hosts will be without De Frutos, Alemão, Nteka, and Pathé Ciss, while Getafe will be missing Abqar, Davinchi, and Mayoral, who is out after knee surgery.
- Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
- Date and time: January 2, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 18)
The tips follow a clear pattern: Rayo to win, both teams to score: no, and a draw at half-time. The betting market rates the hosts as favorites with odds of 2.1, which seems almost generous given that Getafe are without Mayoral and have suffered a series of defeats without scoring.
Rayo form & record check
Rayo starts 2026 with a stark contrast between its recent past and current reality. The club is coming off an exceptional 2025, finishing eighth in La Liga and reaching the round of 16 in the Conference League, but currently sits in fifteenth place with eighteen points, three points above the relegation zone, level on points with Alavés and just one point ahead of Real Sociedad. Against this backdrop, the current league position is noticeably below what the dressing room and fans had expected after last season. In La Liga, the team is in a clear slump, with seven games without a win, four draws and three defeats, and only one goal scored in that entire stretch. The recent run sums it up well: a narrow 1-0 defeat at Espanyol, an uninspired 0-0 draw at home to Betis, and then a 4-0 collapse in Elche, when the defensive structure and concentration simply failed. Across all competitions, the picture is slightly less bleak. In the last five games, there have been two wins, one draw, and two losses, largely thanks to Europe. The 2-1 away win at Jagiellonia and the 3-0 home win against Drita showed a confident Rayo, helping to secure fifth place in the Conference League phase and a place in the round of 16, while the team is also still in the Copa del Rey. Statistically, recent games point to a cautious team. The first halves of 80% of their last five games in all competitions have ended with fewer than 1.5 goals, fitting for a team that prioritizes order and waits for moments rather than opening up early. Interestingly, this structure often breaks down when Rayo has to chase a deficit, as in Elche, and the results can then be very clear-cut. Personnel problems are noticeably weighing on this slump. De Frutos, La Liga’s top scorer with four goals and two more in Europe, is out, and Alemao continues to be plagued by pubic bone problems, while Nteka and Pathé Ciss are at the Africa Cup of Nations. Rayo has only two natural wingers in its squad, Álvaro García and Fran Pérez, which may have cost the attack depth, even if the overall structure remains clearly aligned with Iñigo Pérez’s ideas.
Rayo are expected to stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation in this predicted line-up, with Batalla in goal, Balliu, Lejeune, Mendy, and Chavarría in the back four, and Valentín alongside López as a double six. Ahead of them, Palazón and García are likely to occupy the wings, while Díaz will act as the central link behind Camello, who plays a key role in a team that has struggled for goals in recent La Liga weeks. With Ciss and Nteka away on international duty and De Frutos, Rayo’s top scorer in the league and a Spanish international, and Alemão out injured, López is available again after serving his suspension, so Valentín and López are likely to stabilize the midfield. Trejo and Fran are natural alternatives in the attacking trio, while Espino and Ratiu Pérez offer options for more depth or pace at full-back.
Getafe Form & Record Check
Getafe travels to Vallecas in the midst of a significant slump in La Liga form. The team is in eleventh place with twenty points, level on points with Sevilla and just ahead of Osasuna, and their cushion above the relegation zone has shrunk to five points. Internally, the assessment is sober; although they still feel relatively secure in the table, the team is clearly in free fall in terms of momentum. The results underscore this feeling. In the league, there have been three consecutive defeats without scoring a goal, a 2-0 loss in Villarreal, a 1-0 home defeat to Espanyol, and then a clear 4-0 defeat at Betis, in which Getafe was inferior in every respect. Their only recent success came in the cup against Navalcarnero in extra time, before they were knocked out in Burgos with a 3-1 defeat. Looking at their last five games in all competitions, a clear pattern emerges. Getafe have conceded goals in each of these games, almost always in both halves, have never led at half-time, and have lost the second half in four of these games. For a team historically built on intensity and spatial control by Bordalás, this vulnerability after the break is particularly alarming. In attack, the loss of Mayoral, who underwent knee surgery after scoring six goals this season, leaves a noticeable gap. His absence has made an already struggling offensive line even more blunt and predictable. In defense, Abqar and Davinchi are also missing, which limits the options for stabilizing a defense that currently needs significantly more cover.
Under Bordalás, Getafe is expected to line up in its usual 5-3-2 formation, with Soria in goal, a back five of Femenía, Djené, Duarte, Nyom, and Rico, Milla, Arambarri, and Martín in midfield, and Liso alongside Juanmi up front. It’s a compact, narrow structure that aims to protect the central channel and play quickly and directly forward after winning the ball. This starting lineup is a prediction, so there may still be changes, although the basic structure is likely to remain similar. Getafe goes into this game on a scoreless streak in the league, which is why the offensive phase will be under particular scrutiny. With Abqar and Davinchi out injured, Djené and Duarte are likely to stabilize the defense. The big loss is Mayoral, who is out after knee surgery, so Juanmi and Liso are the likely reference points in attack.
Rayo – Getafe Head-to-head & Statistics
Rayo has the clear upper hand in the last five league encounters, with two wins and three draws, while Getafe has not managed a single victory. Interestingly, the most recent encounter in May 2025 ended 1-0 to Rayo in Vallecas. Prior to that, Getafe had gone three games without a win, regardless of whether they were playing away or at home. In those five games, Rayo scored four goals and conceded just one, underlining the very one-sided nature of the games in both penalty areas. Each of these games ended with fewer than three goals, all five remaining below the 2.5 line, which is why this pairing has consistently delivered close results rather than open exchanges. The pattern becomes even clearer when the games are divided into halves. All first halves and all second halves ended with fewer than two goals, in each case over a series of five encounters. Getafe failed to score before the break once in this sequence, while Rayo never conceded a goal in the first half. Both at home and away, the picture remains virtually unchanged. Rayo kept clean sheets in the two most recent home games, winning 1-0 in May 2025 and drawing 0-0 in 2024, and also won 2-0 in Getafe in 2024. Getafe has found the net only once in these five games, in a 1-1 draw in 2023. Overall, this head-to-head series points to a cautious, grueling duel in which Rayo enters with a little more confidence and Getafe appears more inhibited. Both sides could once again prioritize defensive security, as Rayo has shown that it can narrowly win such close games, while Getafe has so far been unable to find a way to turn this duel in its favor.
