Two worlds collide at the Stadio Olimpico on Monday evening, with fifth-placed AS Roma chasing Champions League qualification, while 17th-placed Genoa are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone. Gian Piero Gasperini’s team is one point behind Napoli and knows that a win on matchday 17 would cement its Champions League ambitions, while Daniele De Rossi returns to his homeland and desperately needs points to keep Genoa a few steps away from the danger zone. Roma are coming off a 2-1 defeat at Juventus and are in an inconsistent phase in Serie A with three defeats in their last five games, which hardly fits with El Shaarawy’s public statements about a top-four finish. Adding to that, Gasperini will be without key players such as Ndicka and El Aynaoui, who are away at the Africa Cup of Nations, as well as injured captain Pellegrini, while Genoa’s momentum was noticeably slowed by their late defeat to Atalanta after Leali’s early red card.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: December 29, 2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 17)
With bookmakers clearly favoring AS Roma at home at around 1.6, our tips look for value beyond the pure result and bet on Gasperini’s intense, organized team to beat Genoa, keep them from scoring, and score the first goal themselves. Genoa are reeling from their stoppage-time defeat to Atalanta and look much less creative in attack without Onana, while AS Roma’s push for the top four, El Shaarawy’s leadership and a recently sharper defense support another AS Roma victory.
AS Roma Form & Record Check
Roma come into this game against Genoa at an unfavorable moment in the league. The team is in fifth place with 30 points, just one point behind Napoli and three ahead of Como, but three defeats in their last four Serie A games have significantly slowed the early momentum El Shaarawy spoke of. The narrow defeats to Napoli and Juventus, both by just one goal, show how costly small mistakes have been recently. In all competitions, the last five games paint a fragile picture; in Europe, they looked sharp in their 3-0 win at Celtic, aggressive and clinical, while in the league they narrowly beat Como 1-0 at the Olimpico but looked lackluster in 1-0 defeats at home to Napoli and away to Cagliari, before a late goal from Baldanzi was not enough to turn things around in a 2-1 defeat to Juventus. Overall, Roma have won two and lost three of their last five games in all competitions, without a single draw, and the statistics show a striking series of low-scoring encounters, with under 1.5 goals in most first halves and also in most second halves. It seems as if Gasperini’s team is compact enough, but lacks the ruthless punch to consistently finish off periods of pressure. Personnel problems reinforce this impression, with Ndicka and El Aynaoui away on international duty and Bove and Pellegrini out injured, leaving Cristante and Koné with enormous responsibility in midfield. Wesley’s rise as a wingback, which has already attracted interest from Real Madrid, has provided a boost, but Gasperini’s public doubts about Ferguson, Bailey, and Tsimikas suggest that the attacking hierarchy is far from settled. With qualification for the Champions League the declared goal, this position in the table seems more solid than truly secure. Roma may have made a good start, as El Shaarawy put it, but their slump in direct matches against Napoli and Juventus raises questions about their control on the big national nights. With Genoa as their next opponent and Europa League action underway, the coming weeks could very quickly tip the mood at the Olimpico in either direction.
Interestingly, AS Roma under Gasperini are likely to stick with their familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, with Svilar in goal behind a back three of Mancini, Ziolkowski, and Hermoso. Çelik and Angeliño are expected to provide width and pressure as high wingbacks, in line with the coach’s demand for more aggression, while Cristante and Koné secure the center. In front of them, Soulé and El Shaarawy could operate freely between the lines around Dybala, with Ferguson and Dovbyk available as alternatives on the bench. AS Roma will once again have to do without Ndicka and El Aynaoui, who are away on international duty, as well as Bove and Pellegrini, who are both still sidelined. Nevertheless, the basic structure of this predicted starting eleven is likely to remain unchanged, with Mancini coordinating the back three and Cristante alongside Koné in midfield, while Wesley, Bailey, and Baldanzi appear to be options to change the game from the bench.
Genoa Form & Record Check
Genoa travels to the Olimpico in a precarious position. Seventeenth in Serie A with 14 points and a negative goal difference, the team is two points behind Lecce and only two ahead of Verona, so every round already feels like a direct battle with its immediate neighbors because the team has yet to find a consistent balance. Their league form is somewhat more stable than their position in the table suggests, with Genoa picking up two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five Serie A games, including important victories against Verona and away at Udinese. In the Coppa Italia, however, they suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat in Bergamo, followed by a 2-1 home defeat to Inter and a painful 1-0 defeat to Atalanta after a corner in injury time. Statistically, there is a clear pattern over the last five games in all competitions: none of these games ended in a draw, Genoa conceded goals in every game, and most games featured more than two goals. This suggests that the team is playing with an offensive mindset but is struggling to control games, a risky combination for a team that is two points behind and two points ahead of its neighbors in both directions. De Rossi’s task is further complicated by turmoil in the squad, with Leali’s red card against Atalanta leading to an early change and now resulting in a suspension, while Siegrist and Cuenca are unavailable and Onana is away on international duty. Off the pitch, Roma’s interest in Frendrup and Carbonis’ premature return to Inter, with Pisa pushing for a signing, could bring some uncertainty to Genoa’s mid-term plans. All of this frames an unusual homecoming for De Rossi at the Olimpico. He has openly stated that he has always wanted Roma to win, but this week he will have to work against that instinct, and given Genoa’s fragile form, how he channels those emotions could be crucial.
Based on recent decisions and despite the stoppage-time defeat to Atalanta, Genoa are expected to stick with their tried-and-tested 3-5-2 under De Rossi. In our predicted line-up, Leali is in goal, in front of him a back three of Vásquez, Otoa and Marcandalli, with Norton-Cuffy and Martín providing width as full-backs. Frendrup, Malinovskyi, and Ellertsson are likely to operate in midfield, behind a physical strike duo of Vitinha and Ekuban. Our prediction takes into account the absences of Siegrist, Onana, and Cuenca, meaning that options for changes in goal and in the more physical midfield positions are limited. Frendrup, who has been linked with AS Roma in recent days, is expected to start again, while Carboni, whose loan spell at Genoa is reportedly coming to an end early, is likely to remain in the background in this prediction, with Stanciu, Cornet, or Messias providing impetus from the bench.
AS Roma vs. Genoa Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five meetings between AS Roma and Genoa, AS Roma has the slightly better record with three wins, while Genoa has one win and one draw. The total goal difference during this period is seven to six in favor of AS Roma. Importantly, AS Roma go into this match on a three-game unbeaten run, with two wins and one draw. In January 2025, AS Roma won 3-1 at home, confirming their 1-0 home win in 2024 and following a 1-1 away draw in the same year. Genoa’s only win in this period dates back to 2023 with a clear 4-1 home win, with the series having started with AS Roma’s 1-0 win in the 2023 Coppa Italia. AS Roma scored in each of these five games, Genoa conceded in all five, and in four of the encounters AS Roma scored exactly one goal, underlining how often the differences were small. The exception is the game in January 2025, in which AS Roma scored three goals. It is also striking that the second halves never ended in a draw and never produced more than two goals. Home advantage clearly played a role, with AS Roma enjoying a perfect home record during this period with three wins, two in the league and one in the cup, and only one goal conceded, while away from home they only picked up a point in the 2024 draw and suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat in 2023, which somewhat distorts the goal difference. Overall, there are many indications that AS Roma usually finds a way to score against Genoa, but the games tend to remain relatively close, and interestingly, the psychological weight of three positive results in a row could influence how Genoa approaches this next encounter, possibly with a more cautious plan to finally keep a clean sheet in this duel.
