A league leader that has just failed in a penalty shootout faces an underdog that is suddenly closing in on Europe again under a new coach: Inter Milan travels to the New Balance Arena on Sunday as the Serie A leader, yet this duel seems bigger than the 17th matchday would suggest. Atalanta Bergamo are ninth with 22 points, just one point behind Lazio and the European places, while Inter are one point ahead of Milan. Recent head-to-head matches have been brutally one-sided, capped by a 2-0 win for the visitors here in March, although this visit feels noticeably different.
Raffaele Palladino has reignited Atalanta Bergamo, with six wins from seven games in all competitions and a late victory in Genoa representing a team on the up, despite setbacks against Chelsea and Eintracht Frankfurt. While Thuram and Lautaro Martínez continue to make the difference for Inter, Atalanta Bergamo will have to do without Lookman and will rely more on Scamacca and De Ketelaere in attack.
- Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo
- Date and time: December 28, 2025, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 17)
Inter Milan are clear favorites with odds of around 2.0, while Atalanta Bergamo are listed at around 3.8 and the draw is at 3.5. However, this assessment seems generous, as Atalanta Bergamo will have to do without Lookman, who is away on Africa Cup of Nations duty, and Kossounou and Bellanova are also missing. Interestingly, Palladino’s fast-paced team continues to score freely, and given Inter Milan’s defense, which is additionally strained by the Supercoppa, bets on both teams scoring seem likely.
Atalanta Form & Record Check
Atalanta enters the match against Inter in impressive form. Under Raffaele Palladino, they have won six and lost only one of their seven games in all competitions, and they have completely avoided draws recently. Nevertheless, with 22 points, they are only ninth in Serie A, in an extremely tight zone of the table where Lazio are one point ahead of them and Sassuolo are lurking just one point behind.
Their recent performances underscore this upswing, but also the fluctuations in detail. In the league, they have won three of their last five games, while in the Coppa Italia they swept Genoa aside 4-0 before a 3-1 defeat in Verona exposed defensive problems. The response was strong, with a 2-1 win in the Champions League against Chelsea and league victories against Cagliari (2-1) and Genoa (1-0), where Hien’s header in stoppage time against ten men also called into question their finishing. In their last five games, the Bergamaschi have always scored, each time after the break, and have not lost a second half during that period. Four of these encounters ended with at least three goals, while the first 45 minutes often remained remarkably quiet, which could also be attributed to Palladino’s adjustments and fitness work.
This development is also reflected in the personnel. Hien’s winning goal in Genoa represents growing authority in defense, and the emergence of Honest Ahanor, who is already attracting significant transfer interest, points to depth in the center despite Djimsiti’s injury and Kossounou’s absence. Further forward, with Lookman at the Africa Cup of Nations and Bellanova and Bakker missing, Musah has been involved more again, and even more responsibility now lies with Scamacca, De Ketelaere, and Sulemana.
Atalanta are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 under Raffaele Palladino, with Carnesecchi in goal behind a back three of Hien, Scalvini, and Kolasinac. Zappacosta and Bernasconi are expected to provide width on the wings, while Musah, fresh from his first Serie A start since the end of August, and Éderson form a central duo that can both press aggressively and carry the game forward. De Ketelaere and Maldini are expected to operate between the lines behind Scamacca.
Defensively, this prediction takes into account the absences of Kossounou and Djimsiti, which is why Hien and Kolasinac may have to push out more aggressively, while Scalvini provides the anchor in the center. With Bellanova and Bakker also out, the wing depth is thin and Zappacosta becomes even more important. Lookman is away with his national team at the Africa Cup of Nations, so Scamacca carries most of the goal threat, with Sulemana remaining an impact option from the bench, and the starting lineup could still change before kickoff.
Inter Form & Record Check
Inter Milan are top of Serie A with 33 points and a goal difference of 20, just one point ahead of Milan, while the top five are within four points of each other. They have capitalized on recent slip-ups by Milan and Roma, which makes their lead at the top of the table look a little more impressive than their somewhat inconsistent league performances would suggest. Current European metrics nevertheless rank them seventh in Europe in terms of adjusted goal difference across all competitions.
In their last five competitive games, Inter Milan have beaten Venezia 5-1 and Como 4-0 and won 2-1 at Genoa, but they stumbled just when it seemed most important. Liverpool’s 1-0 win at San Siro exposed a certain lack of sharpness against top opponents, and the Supercoppa semi-final defeat to Bologna on penalties after a 1-1 draw underlined the difficulties in consistently closing out tight knockout games.
The performance data from this series paints a nuanced picture. In these five games, Inter scored in four, with more than one goal scored in four of them, but they also conceded in four games, which is unusually high for a title contender. It is noteworthy that they have not lost a first half in this phase, but their concentration and control over the full 90 minutes seems to fluctuate at times.
Chivu’s personnel concerns provide part of the explanation. Both regular right wingbacks, Dumfries and Darmian, are out for the long term, leaving Luis Henrique as the only natural player on that side, but his form has been inconsistent. In central defense, Acerbi’s injury and de Vrij’s uncertain future are hampering rotation, putting a lot of pressure on Bastoni and Bisseck, while Bonny’s injury is reducing the depth of the attack. In attack, Inter continue to rely heavily on the duo of Thuram and Lautaro Martínez, which was evident again in Riyadh when Thuram converted Bastoni’s early cross against Bologna. When Inter dictate the tempo, as they did against Como and Venezia, they look almost like the complete package, but the concern after last season’s slump remains that they are not yet able to convert their strong underlying numbers into results in the big moments.
Inter are likely to stick with their usual 3-5-2 formation under Cristian Chivu, with Sommer in goal behind a back three of Bisseck, de Vrij, and Bastoni. In the predicted five-man midfield, Luis Henrique and Dimarco will take up the wing positions, with Barella and Mkhitaryan playing alongside deep-lying playmaker Çalhanoğlu, while Lautaro Martínez and Thuram will once again form the strike partnership, although this lineup is only a possible scenario for now.
Injuries have shaped this expected formation, with Di Gennaro, Palacios, Acerbi, Dumfries, and Darmian all out, while Bonny’s knee sprain takes away the most important offensive alternative to Thuram or Lautaro. With Dumfries and Darmian both missing on the right side, Luis Henrique is effectively set as wingback, so Chivu is more likely to rotate personnel than change the entire system.
Atalanta – Inter Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches from 2023 to March 2025, the balance of power was extremely one-sided, with Inter completely dominating Atalanta. The Nerazzurri won all five games, in the league and Super Cup, with a total score of 14:1. Atalanta did not earn a single point in this series, with their only goal coming in a 2:1 home defeat in 2023. Even the change of venue has made little difference so far: in March 2025, Atalanta lost 2-0 at home in Serie A, and in January 2025, the Super Cup semi-final also ended 2-0 in Inter’s favor. In Milan, Inter celebrated two consecutive 4-0 league wins in 2024, further underlining their dominance.
Inter usually took the lead early on. Atalanta did not win the first half in any of these games or even manage to hold on to a draw at the break, and currently has a streak of at least three consecutive first-half defeats. Inter scored before the break in all of these encounters and, perhaps even more telling, scored at least one goal in the second half in all five games. The games opened up especially after the break, with every second half of these five duels producing at least two goals, and every game ending with more than one goal, in three cases with a total of at least three goals.
Defensively, the gap is clearly widening. Inter conceded only one goal in these five matches, that single goal in 2023, while they themselves scored reliably. Atalanta, on the other hand, conceded goals in every game, always after the break, which regularly turned initially close scores into clear defeats. This pattern points to a matchup in which Inter’s structure has repeatedly frustrated Atalanta’s offensive plans.
