In the battle for European places, this duel at San Mamés could be much more important than the matchday suggests. Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Bilbao are seventh with 23 points, two points behind the places that lead to Europe. Espanyol, coached by Manolo González, has moved up to fifth place with 30 points, four behind Atlético Madrid and five ahead of Betis, so this match on matchday 17 could significantly shift the constellation in the race for continental spots before the turn of the year. Athletic comes into the game with mixed results in the league, a clear victory against Atlético followed by a weak defeat in Vigo and an exhausting extra-time win in the Copa del Rey match at Ourense. Qualification for the Champions League is still up in the air, January brings a busy schedule, and the defense is already depleted by the long-term absences of Laporte, Yuri, Egiluz, and Yeray. On top of that, the team has a negative goal difference, which is why the bookmakers’ clear favoritism seems a little optimistic despite the home advantage.
- Venue: Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao
- Date and time: December 22, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 17)
At the same time, the visitors appear to be interesting underdogs, buoyed by their winning streak, their threat from set pieces, and their decent performance in Bilbao last time out. With Unai Simón and Dmitrovic in front of organized defensive lines and Puado absent, both teams to score: No seems a good bet for a close, hard-fought result.
Bilbao form & record check
Athletic go into this game with a league profile that mixes ambition and fragility. In seventh place with 23 points, they are two points behind Betis and only one ahead of Celta, and their goal difference is negative. Their last three league games tell the story: a heavy 3-0 home defeat to Madrid, a tight 1-0 win over Atlético, and then a flat 2-0 defeat in Vigo. Across all competitions, their last five games show a team that thrives on close matches, with two wins, one draw, and two defeats, and in four of those games, the total number of goals was less than three. In this series, they did not score in the first half in any game, with 80% of those opening periods ending in a draw, often leaving Athletic chasing the game after a static start. The victory in the Copa in Ourense, a 1-0 win after extra time thanks to a goal from Jauregizar, fits the picture of a team that struggles to establish dominance early on. The fact that extra time was necessary against a third-division team indicates problems in creating chances, even if they avoided embarrassment in the end. In Europe, the 0-0 draw against PSG kept them on five points and in 28th place in the Champions League table. In this overall picture, defensive stability is difficult to build. Laporte is still out with a thigh problem, Yuri and Egiluz are injured, and Yeray is suspended by FIFA, while Vivian will also be missing in the match against Espanyol. Laporte himself acknowledged that this reduces the depth of the defense, naming Adama Boiro, Lekue, and even Vesga as players who can fill the gaps, but constant reshuffling costs rhythm. In attack, the feeling is similar: the talent is there, but the output is uneven. Nico Williams has three goals and three assists in 17 appearances, solid numbers that nevertheless leave room for sharper finishing and passing. Sancet believes the team can regain its rhythm if it sticks to its ideas, even if the current league record of seven wins, two draws, and eight defeats shows how little room for maneuver there is.
In our predicted starting lineup, Athletic sticks with its now familiar 4-2-3-1 formation. Simón starts in goal, with Gorosabel, Vivian, Paredes, and Lekue forming the back four. Vesga and Galarreta make up the double pivot, Sancet operates between the lines, the Williams brothers work the wings, and Guruzeta acts as the nominal number nine. This is a prediction, not a confirmed lineup. This assessment assumes that the personnel shortages in defense will continue, as Laporte, Yeray, and Egiluz are out long term and Berchiche is not expected to return until early January. Laporte himself has mentioned Adama, Lekue, or even Vesga as cover in the center, so those are the obvious alternatives if Valverde changes the back four, while Prados is unavailable in Europe and Navarro and Sannadi are still in rehabilitation training.
Espanyol Form & Record Check
Espanyol travels to San Mamés in what is arguably its best form in years. In fifth place in La Liga with 30 points, they are four points behind Atlético Madrid and five ahead of Betis. For a club that has bounced between leagues several times in the past ten years, this first half of the season already significantly exceeds the original goal of stability and brings them back into the discussion for Europe. Espanyol’s league record is almost flawless, with four wins in a row, 2-1 against Sevilla, 1-0 at Celta, 1-0 against Rayo Vallecano, and 1-0 at Getafe, painting a picture of a team that manages close games with growing maturity. The only setback remains their exit from the Copa del Rey against Atlético Baleares, a 1-0 defeat that revealed how quickly the level drops when intensity and clarity on the ball are lacking. Manolo González has formed a compact, recognizable structure that clearly bears his signature. Dmitrovic has kept seven clean sheets in sixteen league games, including three in a row, in front of a defense featuring Calero, Cabrera, Omar El Hilali, and Carlos Romero. League games are mostly tight and difficult to open up, with first halves often ending in draws, very few goals scored in recent encounters, and draws over 90 minutes almost completely disappearing. Interestingly, the most significant offensive threat now comes from set pieces. The winning goal in Getafe, a corner from Expósito that Cabrera headed in after a lay-off from Urko González de Zárate, is emblematic of this strength. Roberto and Kike have answered the questions in attack, while the absences of Pickel, Terrats, and Puado limit the options between the lines, so efficiency in front of goal is likely to remain more important than sheer quantity of chances.
Espanyol are expected to stick with their usual 4-4-2, so the predicted starting eleven reflects the structure that has underpinned their recent league form. Dmitrovic should start in goal, protected by El Hilali, Calero, Cabrera, and Romero. In midfield, Carreras and Milla are expected to start on the flanks, with González de Zárate alongside Expósito in the center behind the strike duo of Fernández and García, while Cabrera and Calero remain dangerous from set pieces in the box. Three notable absences feature in this possible starting lineup, with Pickel away on international duty and both Terrats and Puado recovering from injury. Against this backdrop, González de Zárate remains set to partner Expósito in central defense, while Lozano is available to provide cover from the bench. Carreras and Milla would move into the starting lineup on the wings, with Dolan and Koleosho considered likely substitutes with additional impact.
Bilbao – Espanyol Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao leads the record with three wins, one draw, and one defeat. Espanyol’s only victory came in 2022, when they won 1-0 in Bilbao, after which Athletic Bilbao went on a three-game winning streak in the league and cup. This was only stopped in February 2025 by a 1-1 away draw for Espanyol. Overall, the results have mostly been close. Three of the five games were decided by just one goal, and in four of the five encounters, there were fewer than 3.5 goals in total. The exception is Athletic Bilbao’s 4-1 home win in 2024, which was the clearest sign of their offensive superiority in this recent series. The rhythm of the game also shows a clear pattern, with four of these games seeing fewer than 1.5 goals at halftime, meaning that the early stages tend to be cautious. The second halves are often evenly matched, with a high rate of draws, and neither team has built up a clear winning streak in the second 45 minutes, suggesting that the final results often depend on small details late in the game. Context also plays a role. The 1-0 win in the round of 16 of the 2023 Copa del Rey was a knockout match, so this victory for Athletic Bilbao carried extra weight, ending Espanyol’s cup run. Since that evening, the results have tended to favor them, and Espanyol will likely need another controlled, low-scoring performance like in 2022 to shift the balance of power again.
