A top-of-the-table clash with unequal conditions awaits at the Estadio de la Cerámica when Marcelino’s Villarreal, currently third in the table, host Hansi Flick’s league leaders FC Barcelona on Sunday. Barça travel with 43 points and a four-point lead over Real Madrid, which is broadly in line with what is expected of them, while Villarreal’s 35 points and third place in the table already feel like a performance above expectations, which a win here could confirm. Both teams are in top form in the league with five consecutive wins, but their head-to-head matches rarely follow a set script. Interestingly, there have been no draws in the last five encounters. The last meeting in May at Camp Nou ended 3-2 in favor of Villarreal, who also won 5-3 there in early 2024, while Barcelona’s visits to La Cerámica have produced results such as the 5-1 away win in 2024. Context is important. Villarreal come into this game on the back of a Champions League exit and a Copa del Rey elimination against Racing, and they do so with a number of injuries and the AFCON call-ups of Akhomach and Pape Gueye, leaving Marcelino short in several positions. Barcelona, despite important absences and a Pedri who is not quite 100% fit, are benefiting from the form of Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, and the betting market is clearly leaning towards them.
- Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal
- Date and time: 12/21/2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 17)
Tips such as Barcelona to win, Barcelona to win the second half, and Over 1.5 goals in the first half paint essentially the same picture. The betting market favors Barça with odds of 1.8, while the draw is priced significantly higher, and their strong league run, Raphina’s brace against Osasuna and Lamine’s brilliance at La Cerámica, as well as a Villarreal side weakened by elimination from Europe and the Copa competition and missing key defenders, underline the visitors’ control, their late superiority, and the realistic chance of an early goal.
Villarreal Form & Record Check
Villarreal go into this Barça game with a curious contrast. In La Liga, they are in good shape, third with 35 points from 11 wins, two draws, and two defeats, just four points behind Real Madrid and one ahead of Atlético. For a young team still in the process of building, this consistency in the league probably exceeds initial expectations, and it may well be that Marcelino now sees the national championship as the clearest route to a title. In all competitions, however, form has dipped recently. The 3-2 home defeat to Copenhagen in the Champions League group stage, part of a campaign that has already ended in elimination, and the 2-1 defeat at Racing in the Copa revealed recurring defensive gaps and problems in dealing with emotional moments. Even the 0-0 draw and subsequent penalty shootout victory at Antoniano suggested that they are struggling to impose their rhythm against theoretically inferior opponents. In La Liga, however, they appear more stable. The 3-2 win at Real Sociedad and the 2-0 win against Getafe showed a team that can take a beating and finish games with maturity. Arnau Tenas said this week that they can beat anyone if they are focused, and the data supports him: Villarreal have scored in 80% of their last five games and scored at least two goals in 80% of them. However, this resilience comes with a caveat, as the squad is severely depleted. Marcelino is without Logan Costa, Willy Kambwala, Juan Foyth, Sergi Cardona, and Santiago Mouriño at the back, as well as Thomas Partey, Pape Gueye, and Ilias Akhomach. Without Gerard Moreno at full strength, the responsibility in the final third falls to Ayoze, Mikautadze, Pépé, or Buchanan, and Parejo’s possible return could stabilize a team that often starts cautiously but finishes games with greater intensity.
Villarreal are likely to stick with their usual 4-2-3-1 formation. In our predicted starting eleven, Tenas is in goal, in front of him a back four of Altimira, Marín, Veiga and Pedraza, and a double six with Comesaña and Parejo, if Marcelino’s captain is given the nod. In front of them, Pepe, Moleiro and Pérez would support Mikautadze as strikers and swap positions among themselves. Due to the recent rotation in goal, Luiz Júnior could start instead. Defensive absences such as Logan Costa, Foyth, Kambwala, Cardona, and Mouriño practically force this back four, while in midfield, Partey’s injury and Gueye’s absence at the AFCON reduce the more physical options. With Ilias and possibly Gerard still missing, Pepe and Ayoze gain importance in the rotation, and Oluwaseyi appears to be a natural alternative if Marcelino changes his offensive lineup. This remains a predicted lineup.
Barcelona Form & Record Check
Barcelona travels to Villarreal in impressive La Liga form. Hansi Flick’s side leads the table with 43 points and a goal difference of 29, four points ahead of Real Madrid, having taken maximum points from its last five league games. Given the injury problems and bumpy opening weeks mentioned by the club, this lead at the top of the table probably exceeds most early season expectations. In all competitions, the last five games have brought victories against Atlético Madrid, Real Betis, Eintracht Frankfurt, Osasuna, and Guadalajara. The 3-5 defeat at Betis highlighted significant defensive weaknesses, despite constant attacking threat, while the 3-1 win against Atlético felt like a statement against a direct rival. The 2-1 win against Eintracht, the 2-0 win against Osasuna, and the 2-0 win in Guadalajara showed that Barcelona can also control tighter games. The figures from this period show a clear pattern. Barcelona has scored in each of its last five games and in every second half, winning all five. Around 80% of these games also resulted in a win in the second half. All five ended with more than one and a half goals, yet the team did not concede a goal after the break, indicating physical superiority and effective adjustments in the game. This profile fits a team that sometimes starts vulnerably but then grows stronger and stronger into the game, supported by depth in attack. Lamine Yamal seems transformed after his treatment, having played 717 of the last 720 minutes and leading La Liga with seven assists and 69 successful dribbles. Raphinha comes in with a brace against Osasuna, Rashford has a total of seven goals and nine assists, and Lewandowski remains at the center of the attack, heavily dependent on Pedri’s fitness. Defensively, the form is good but not flawless. The three goals conceded at Betis and the continued absence of Araujo, along with the injuries to Gavi and Dani Olmo, explain why the club is already scouting the market for a left-footed center back. Interestingly, ter Stegen’s return in the cup win brings additional internal competition for Joan García at just the right time.
Barcelona are expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation at Villarreal, in line with our predicted line-up. This is a possible starting XI and not a confirmed line-up. Joan García would continue in goal, protected by Kounde, Eric Garcia, Christensen, and Balde. In midfield, Casado and De Jong provide balance, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal operate wide, and Fermin operates between the lines. Lewandowski remains the reference point and attacks Villarreal’s high defensive line. Significant absences continue to characterize this predicted starting eleven. Araujo remains unavailable after his recent mental health break, so Eric Garcia is expected to partner Christensen. Gavi and Dani Olmo are out with long-term injuries, creating space for Fermin and Casado. Pedri is suffering from soleus strain and is doubtful, so in this scenario he will start on the bench alongside options such as Rashford and Ferran.
Villarreal – Barcelona Head-to-head & Statistics
In the last five head-to-head matches, Barcelona has narrowly won three times to Villarreal’s two, with no draws. It is noteworthy that the away team has won each time. In 2024, the visitors scored five goals in both matches, with Barcelona winning 5-1 and Villarreal responding with a 5-3 victory in Barcelona. These matches were open, with 27 goals in total, an average of 5.4 per game. The most recent encounter in May 2025 ended 3-2 for Villarreal in Barcelona. Four of the five games ended with at least four goals. Barcelona scored in all five games, Villarreal in four, meaning that in four of the last five encounters, both teams scored. The pattern within the games is also relevant. In four of the five encounters, at least two goals were scored in the second half, so the games often open up after the break. In the last three encounters, both the first and second halves saw at least three goals scored, suggesting a high tempo throughout the game and not just in the late stages. Only Barcelona’s 1-0 win in 2023 broke this pattern and remained comparatively controlled. Villarreal conceded goals in each of these five games, while Barcelona’s attack was never completely silenced, which is why Marcelino’s team struggled to contain it. At the same time, Barcelona also conceded goals in four of the five games, which could tempt Hansi Flick to rely on finishers such as Lewandowski or Yamal while being careful not to leave space for counterattacks.
