A team that won in Parma with nine men thanks to a late goal from Noslin faces a promoted side that shocked Milan on the first matchday and most recently beat Bologna 3-1. That is the setting for the clash between Lazio Rome and Cremonese on matchday 16 of Serie A at the Stadio Olimpico. Both teams are stuck in mid-table, with Sarri’s side in 8th place with 22 points, two points behind Como, while Nicola’s team is just two points behind 11th place. History clearly favors Lazio Rome, who have won all three previous encounters, including a 3-2 victory here in May 2023, although Cremonese could climb further up the table with a win in Rome. Despite their emotional win in Parma, where Lazio Rome was the weaker team for long stretches, they are struggling with injuries, with Basic and Zaccagni suspended and Dele Bashiru and Dia missing due to commitments at the Africa Cup of Nations. The promoted team is coming in with confidence, but also has to cope with absences and was recently frustrated after a narrow defeat in Turin with an unchecked handball scene.
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Date and time: December 20, 2025, 6:00 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 16)
While the Africa Cup absences of Dele Bashiru and Dia, as well as Cremonese’s recent goalless performances despite Vardy’s form, are significant factors, bets on under 2.5 goals and both teams not scoring are particularly noteworthy.
Lazio Rome form & record check
Lazio Rome go into this game with three wins, one draw, and one defeat from their last five competitive games, including league wins against Lecce 2-0 and Parma 1-0, as well as a 1-0 victory against Milan in the Coppa Italia. The most painful blemish on this run was the 1-0 league defeat at San Siro, while the 1-1 home draw against Bologna underlined the team’s continued inconsistency under Sarri. The performance in Parma was paradoxical, with Lazio Rome being inferior for long stretches but then winning late through Noslin after Zaccagni and Basic were shown red cards, a result that revealed both resilience and a certain claim to control, as well as a growing discipline problem. The draw against Bologna at the Olimpico seemed structurally more stable, even if Sarri’s team once again lacked punch in the opposition’s half. In terms of patterns, Lazio Rome’s last five games have all ended with under 2.5 goals, they have scored in 80% of those games, and the first halves in particular are strikingly cautious, with around 80% of half-time scores without a change in the lead and frequent halves with under 1.5 goals, while every second half in this series has also remained under 1.5. They are eighth in the league with 22 points, just two points behind Como and one ahead of Sassuolo, a position that is respectable given the transfer embargo and regular absences of players such as Gigot, Rovella, and Isaksen, but does not yet look like genuine top-four ambitions. Perhaps the signals from the transfer market say the most. Lazio Rome continue to search for an attacking midfielder such as Brescianini or Loftus Cheek, listen to offers for Guendouzi, and Provedel, who despite interest in Mandas is holding his place in goal and secured the win in Parma with a save, is representative of a competitive team that is still looking for a more fluid attacking rhythm.
We expect Sarri to stick with his usual 4-3-3, so our predicted back line should look familiar, with Provedel in goal ahead of Mandas and Marusic and Pellegrini as attacking fullbacks in front of the center-back duo of Patric and Romagnoli. With Gigot still out, there is little reason to break up this pairing, even though Gila remains a serious alternative. In midfield, we expect Guendouzi, Cataldi, and Basic to feature in a structure similar to Sarri’s usual setup, while Rovella remains unavailable and Dele Bashiru is on international duty, making Vecino and Belahyane the main rotation options. Up front, we expect Cancellieri and Noslin to play on the wings alongside Castellanos in the center, with Pedro providing cover, while Isaksen and Dia are unavailable.
Cremonese Form & Record Check
As a promoted team, Cremonese are in 11th place in Serie A with 20 points and a balanced goal difference, just one point behind surprise teams Udinese and Sassuolo and just ahead of Atalanta, a position that probably already exceeds pre-season expectations, even if their recent run looks more like consolidation than a short-term push for European places. Their form has been mixed in their last five league games, with consecutive defeats to Pisa and Roma followed by an impressive 3-1 away win against Coppa Italia winners Bologna and a 2-0 home win against Lecce, which finally gave them a clean sheet, before a 1-0 defeat in Turin halted that momentum and showed how tight the margins are for this team, especially away from home. However, the defeat in Turin needs to be put into context: Cremonese failed to score and lost 1-0, but were left frustrated by a late handball by Giovanni Simeone, which, as former referee Andrea De Marco later argued, should have resulted in a penalty, a sense of injustice that could either unleash additional determination or obscure the fact that they once again failed to pick up any points away from home. The latest figures paint a picture of a team that rarely does things by halves: in their last five Serie A games, there has not been a single draw and in four of them they conceded goals, while the first halves are usually cautious, with less than two goals scored before the break in four of those games, before the game opened up afterwards, suggesting difficulties in maintaining a consistent tempo over the full 90 minutes. Offensively, the headline is Vardy. His move to Cremonese and his surge in November, which earned him the Serie A Player of the Month award, have significantly improved the quality of Nicolas’ attack and shone in big results such as the win in Bologna or the surprise on the first matchday against Milan, even if the last two performances have again revealed a lack of consistency. For the immediate future, the personnel situation will be crucial. Payero is suspended due to too many yellow cards, Grassi, Collocolo, and Sarmiento are out, which makes the balance in midfield delicate, and in defense, Faye is recovering from an ankle problem and is also expected to play for Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations, so a defense that has only kept a clean sheet in this recent phase could quickly become overstretched.
On paper, Cremonese are likely to stick with a familiar 3-5-2, with Audero in goal behind a back three built around Baschirotto and Ceccherini, supported by Terracciano and Pezzella as wing-backs. With Faye, Bianchetti, and Folino all missing, and Grassi, Collocolo, and Sarmiento also unavailable in midfield and attack, Bondo and Valoti are expected to start, while Payero serves his one-match Serie A suspension. Up front, we expect to see the duo of Vardy and Bonazzoli. Vardy’s form as player of the month makes him the most important reference point in transition play and pressing, with Vandeputte providing the creative spark behind him. Nicola could call on Zerbin, Johnsen, or Okereke from the bench, although this is only a predicted starting eleven and the final decisions are still subject to change.
Lazio Rome – Cremonese Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last three meetings, Lazio Rome has achieved the maximum haul of three wins with a total score of 11:2. The series includes two Serie A games from 2023 and 2022 and a Coppa Italia game from 2020. There were no draws during this period, so the balance of power has historically been clearly one-sided. In 2020, the cup match ended 4-0 in favor of Lazio Rome, and the Serie A visit to Cremonese in 2022 also brought a clear result with another 4-0 win. It was not until 2023 that Cremonese scored their first goal in this duel in a much closer 3-2 defeat, which suggests tactical adjustments, although the final result was again in Lazio Rome’s favor. Statistically, the pattern is clear: Lazio Rome won both the first half and the game in all three matches, scoring in both halves, and all encounters recorded more than 3.5 goals in total, with plenty of early action, as each first half saw at least two goals. For Cremonese, this meant constant defensive pressure and not a single game without conceding a goal in this small sample. One might think that Lazio Rome would take a clear psychological advantage from this mini-series, with three wins in a row and consistent goal scoring in all periods of the game. At the same time, the 2023 encounter showed that Cremonese can certainly cause problems on the scoreboard, so history suggests an open, high-scoring duel, even if the tactical environment of both teams has changed noticeably in the meantime.
