Between Champions League ambitions and relegation fears, Saturday at the Estadio Metropolitano could be a real test of morale when Atlético Madrid host Valencia CF on matchday 16 of La Liga. Diego Simeone’s team is in 4th place in the table with 31 points, four behind Villarreal above them and four ahead of Espanyol behind them. A home win would further consolidate their grip on the top four. Carlos Corberán’s team travels in 16th place with 15 points and a goal difference of minus 9, just one point ahead of Mallorca, so the pressure is clearly on. The recent record clearly favors Atlético, who have won four of the last five meetings and secured a 3-0 victory at Mestalla in February. They come into the game on the back of a 3-2 comeback win in Europe at PSV and three league wins, largely fulfilling expectations, but will be without Giménez, Llorente, and Cardoso.
- Venue: Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
- Date and time: December 13, 2025, 2:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 16)
Atlético’s high tempo, Álvarez and Sørloth’s strong performances in Europe, defensive absences such as Giménez and Llorente, Valencia’s unbeaten run and their habit of scoring in the second half all point to over 2.5 goals, a fairly quiet first half and both teams scoring.
Atlético form & record check
Atlético go into this game in mixed but energetic form. In Europe, they are coming off a 3-2 comeback win at PSV and had previously defeated Inter 2-1 at the Metropolitano, results that lifted them to seventh place in the Champions League with 12 points. This run, built on offensive strength and tactical successes, has them among the top twelve teams in the competition. In La Liga, however, the situation looks more problematic. Atlético are in fourth place with 31 points and a goal difference of 13, four behind Villarreal and four ahead of Espanyol, but their two league games brought a 3-1 defeat in Barcelona, where Hansi Flick’s team improved significantly, and a 1-0 defeat against Athletic Club. The 2-0 home win against Oviedo was a reminder that they can also control games in Madrid. Current figures describe a team that plays with more risk. There have been no draws in recent games, and in 80% of them Atlético have both scored and conceded, usually scoring in the first half and encountering more problems after the break. Eindhoven was the clearest example, as they turned a 0-1 deficit into a 3-1 lead, but then let PSV come back to 3-2. Simeone may be accepting additional chaos in order to give his attacking players more freedom. This Champions League victory also summed up the individual form. Álvarez scored again, Sørloth produced a goal and an assist, Hancko and Molina combined for another goal, and Barrios delivered from midfield. With Giménez, Llorente, and Johnny Cardoso injured, this core group of performers may have to shoulder even more responsibility. Add to that Raspadoris’ lack of minutes and Premier League interest in Gallagher, which raise slight medium-term question marks.
Atlético are expected to stick with their preferred 4-4-2, with Oblak in goal behind a back four of Molina, Le Normand, Hancko, and Ruggeri. In midfield, Barrios and Nico González are likely to occupy the flanks again, with Koke and Gallagher operating in the center and Álvarez supporting Sørloth up front. Given the recent influence of Álvarez and Sørloth in the Champions League, this conservative, unchanged system seems the most likely. Giménez remains sidelined with a thigh problem, so Le Normand and Hancko are expected to form the center-back pairing, with Molina and Ruggeri providing balance on the wings. Llorente and Cardoso are also out, which could push Gallagher into a box-to-box role alongside Koke. From the bench, Griezmann and Baena appear to be the main candidates to change the offensive lineup.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia come to Madrid in slightly improved form, even if the table continues to look uncomfortable. They are 16th in the table with 15 points and a clearly negative goal difference, level on points with Osasuna and only one point ahead of Mallorca. A run of five games without defeat in all competitions has provided some stability, but it has not yet provided any real breathing space. In La Liga, the pattern is clear. Three of their last four league games have ended 1-1, against Real Betis, Rayo Vallecano, and Sevilla, with a single 1-0 home win against Levante in between. Their performances have been more compact than expansive, and there is a sense that Corberán’s team is still hesitant to take risks in evenly matched games. The recent draw against Sevilla showed both resilience and limitations. Valencia fell behind after an own goal by César Tárrega, then needed a goal from Hugo Duro, set up by Ugrinic, in stoppage time to salvage a point at Mestalla. Earlier in the week, they needed extra time to beat Cartagena 2-1 in the Copa del Rey, before drawing away to Sporting Gijón in the next round. Statistically, their recent games have followed a striking pattern. Every first half of the last five has ended with fewer than two goals and Valencia have not led at the break once, yet they have scored in the second half in all five games. That suggests improved fitness and attitude, while the slow starts could also be part of Corberán’s cautious approach. Defensively, they have conceded goals in most of these games, and only one of the last five has produced more than two goals, so the margins are always tight. Pepelu anchors the midfield, while Almeida and Ugrinic try to feed Danjuma, Luis Rioja, and Hugo Duro. The flu that is sidelining Javi Guerra takes away one of Corberán’s more dynamic options between the lines.
Valencia are expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that Corberán has favored, so our predicted starting eleven largely mirrors the structure used against Sevilla. Agirrezabala is in goal, in front of a back four of Correia, Tárrega, Copete, and Gayà, with Pepelu acting as a defensive midfielder alongside Santamaria. In front of them, Rioja, Almeida, and Danjuma are likely to support Hugo Duro as the lone striker, a system that maintains width and protects the central areas. The main question in this predicted lineup concerns the midfield, as Guerra is out with the flu. Santamaria seems the natural replacement alongside Pepelu, which would make the double six center more position-oriented and slightly less vertical. From the bench, options such as Ugrinic, Ramazani, or Diego López could change the game between the lines. It should be emphasized that this is an expected starting eleven and not a confirmed lineup.
Atletico – Valencia Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five La Liga encounters, Atlético Madrid have won four and Valencia only one, with no draws. The total goals are 11-3 in favor of Atlético, a clear shift in power during this period. Valencia’s only success came in 2023 with a 3-0 win at home, but before and after that result, Atlético have largely dominated the fixture. At home, Atlético have been flawless in this series, winning three out of three in 2023 and 2024, all without conceding a goal and with at least two goals scored in each game. At Valencia’s ground, the story is somewhat different. Valencia’s 3-0 win in 2023 was emphatic, but in February 2025, Atlético returned there and made a statement of their own with a 3-0 win in round 25 of the regular season. The goal pattern is remarkably consistent. Every game in this series has ended with at least two goals and fewer than four, so always either 2-0 or 3-0. Neither team has ever scored in the same game. This series of five games with over 1.5 goals but under 3.5 underscores a rivalry in which one side usually prevails without turning it into a complete demolition. In terms of the course of the game, Atlético were ahead at halftime and at the end of the game in 80% of these duels, suggesting that Simeone’s side tends to assert itself early on and manage the lead. Valencia, on the other hand, trailed in most of the first and second halves and conceded goals in each of the five games in this sample. In summary, this head-to-head phase gives Atlético the psychological advantage, and Corberán may approach the next encounter with a more cautious plan, especially in the early stages. The numbers suggest a match in which it will be crucial for Valencia to prevent the first goal, because once Atlético takes the lead, recent history suggests that they very rarely relinquish it.
