The 0-3 defeat at Chelsea still weighs heavily on FC Barcelona, which is why the home league game against Deportivo Alavés at Camp Nou is a kind of character test to immediately regain confidence. A win would not only stabilize their form in La Liga, with Real Madrid just one point ahead of Barça in the table, but also send out a strong sporting message following their return to the renovated stadium. It is only their second competitive game in front of their home crowd since the reopening, with a clear 4-0 win over Athletic Club a week ago. The mood was relaxed, but the injury list continues to grow, with Fermín López out for around two weeks with a muscle injury, while Pedri, Gavi, and Marc-André ter Stegen are still unavailable. Alavés travel with significantly less pressure, as the Basques are safely mid-table with 15 points, but they lost 1-0 at home to Celta Vigo last time out. Coach Eduardo Coudet knows how high the hurdle is at Camp Nou, with Barcelona winning each of the last five direct encounters, most recently 1-0 in February. For Alavés, the main priority is to maintain their distance from the bottom of the table and not get crushed. For Barcelona, the game is a must-win to quickly make up for the disappointment of the Champions League and keep up with the leaders, while Alavés will probably play defensively and try to get out of Camp Nou with as little damage as possible.
- Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona
- Date and time: 11/29/2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 14)
Recommendation 1, Over 3.5 goals. Barcelona has scored at least four goals or had a total of over 3.5 goals in 80% of its recent matches, with two of its last three home games ending with at least four Barça goals. Alavés has conceded goals in four of its last five away games, and the home advantage at Camp Nou and the recent 4-0 home win against Athletic further support the expectation of a high-scoring game. Recommendation 2: Both teams to score. Despite its offensive strength, Barcelona has conceded at least one goal in 80% of its last matches. The absence of Marc-André ter Stegen and the use of Joan García in goal increase defensive uncertainty, and the 3-0 defeat at Chelsea, including Araújo’s red card, exposed weaknesses in set pieces and open play. Hansi Flick’s aggressive pressing can also open up space for counterattacks, which Alavés could exploit. Recommendation 3: Barcelona leads at halftime. Barça has scored in the first half in 80% of its last games and has also shown clear dominance in several second halves. The team will be looking to make amends after their performance at Stamford Bridge, and individual form curves such as Marcus Rashford’s strong performance at Camp Nou and Lamine Yamal’s current form suggest an intense opening phase and an early lead. The betting market rates Barcelona as clear favorites with odds of around 1.2, so a simple bet on Barcelona to win offers little value. In conclusion, combinations such as Barcelona to win at half-time and full-time plus over 3.5 goals, or single bets on over 3.5 goals and both teams to score, can offer tactical value compared to the standard bet on Barcelona to win, but come with increased risk. Shifting odds and live variations can be used to optimize stakes and timing.
Barcelona form & record check
Barcelona continues to perform very consistently in La Liga, trailing Real Madrid by just one point and winning three of its last four league games. At the same time, the Catalans revealed significant weaknesses in the Champions League with a 3-0 defeat at Chelsea. There is a lot of quality in the offense, with Robert Lewandowski, Fermín López, Ferran Torres, and the young players around Lamine Yamal regularly providing goals and assists. In the league, the attacking play appears fluid and variable for long stretches. The defense is more problematic, both in terms of organization and physicality, as symbolized by the red card and own goal in the match against Chelsea. In addition, there are many absences with Pedri, Gavi, Marc-André ter Stegen, and now Fermín López, which limits the depth of the squad. Hansi Flick relies on high pressing, offensive fullbacks, and a lot of possession, which often works against weaker opponents but seems more vulnerable against physically strong and well-structured teams. It will be interesting to see whether he makes short-term changes to the basic formation or focuses primarily on intensity and reducing mistakes. One positive side effect is the long-term contract extension for Eric Garcia, while individual stress and health issues, such as those affecting Szczęsny, must continue to be closely monitored. The return to the partially reopened Camp Nou has symbolic significance and provides energy, but it is not enough on its own to completely turn the mood around. Overall, Barcelona is on solid footing in the league, but for international ambitions, it needs a more stable and flexible defense as well as the gradual return of injured key players.
The absences in midfield with Pedri, Gavi, and Fermín López are forcing Hansi Flick to field an unfamiliar midfield trio of Casadó, Frenkie de Jong, and Dani Olmo, which is a functional solution but provides less defensive stability and pressing intensity. Olmo is likely to take on the creative role, organizing the distribution of the ball and the link to the forwards. In defense, the back four of Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Pau Cubarsí, and Alejandro Balde looks well-rehearsed and should be fundamentally stable against Alavés’ comparatively weaker offense. Joan García is the logical alternative in goal while Marc-André ter Stegen is out, and his coordination with the defense will be crucial. In attack, the return of Marcus Rashford would be a clear plus in terms of dynamism and finishing quality, with a likely starting line-up of Rashford, Lamine Yamal, and Ferran Torres combining pace, dribbling, and goal-scoring threat. Robert Lewandowski remains a strong option as a super-sub, as a target man who can make his presence felt in the box and look for finishes in the second half. The greatest strength of this lineup lies in the well-rehearsed defense, the creativity of Olmo, and the pace of Rashford and Yamal, complemented by Lewandowski’s super-sub quality. The risk remains in the center, as the midfield could lack ball recovery and aggressiveness in pressing, and the offense is heavily dependent on Olmo as the playmaker. If they fall behind early, it could be difficult to regain control. Clear roles are therefore important for Flick. De Jong should drop deeper to provide cover when the ball is lost, and Casadó should consistently take on the more defensive role, while Olmo needs support from attacking wingers such as Balde and Ferran Torres. A timely switch to Lewandowski in the center can open up additional space for the wingers. If they manage to keep the defensive center compact and give Olmo enough support, a win against Alavés is very realistic.
Alaves Form & Record Check
In short, Deportivo Alavés is going through a weak phase in La Liga. Three defeats in the last four league games, 0-1 against Celta Vigo on a penalty kick, 0-1 at Girona and 0-1 at Rayo Vallecano, are offset by only one victory, 2-1 against Espanyol, which clearly illustrates the team’s lack of consistency. With 15 points, the team currently occupies 14th place in the table, just above the relegation zone. In four of their last five games, i.e. 80%, Alavés has conceded goals, and their defense appears vulnerable. At the same time, the second halves have been remarkably low-scoring, usually ending with under 1.5 goals, which points to a lack of punch after the break and rather tentative adjustments by coach Eduardo Coudet, especially since there has not been a single draw in the last five games. The home defeat against Celta also showed that, despite personnel options such as Rebbach, Vicente, and Mariano Díaz, the attack often lacks ideas, and even substitutions could not solve the offensive problem. Added to this are yellow cards for players such as Jonny and Pacheco, which indicate growing nervousness and discipline problems, making it difficult to implement tactical instructions. In the short term, Alavés needs to show more variety in attack, with dynamic runs in behind, targeted crosses and, if necessary, a system with two strikers for more presence in the penalty area. At the same time, better adjustments would be needed at half-time, for example in the form of bolder substitutions or higher pressing on the wings. Defensively, tighter organization on set pieces and in transition moments would be important, while clear assignments on counterattacks could reduce the number of goals conceded. Mentally, the team needs more stability, with a focus on discipline, simple processes, and the targeted building of self-confidence, for example through training focus and psychological support. If this mix of tactical and mental adjustments is not successful, there is a risk of further slipping down the table, especially as points are needed soon against direct rivals at the bottom of the table in order to maintain the gap to the relegation zone.
At Deportivo Alavés, there are many indications of a 4-4-2 system, with Sivera in goal, a back four of Jonny, Tenaglia, Pacheco and Enríquez, Vicente and Aleñá on the wings, Blanco and Denis in the center, and Toni Martínez and Boyé as the strike duo. The only downside in terms of personnel is the long-term absence of Garcés, but beyond that there are currently no major concerns, allowing Eduardo Coudet to field a well-rehearsed formation. This 4-4-2 formation offers a clear defensive structure and sufficient width, but offensively, creativity and pace depend heavily on the wingers, while Toni Martínez and Boyé thrive on precise crosses and quick support from midfield.
Barcelona – Alaves Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent head-to-head record is clear, with Barcelona winning all of their last five games against Deportivo Alavés. The Basques have been waiting for a point against the Catalans since January 2022. The results include a 1-0 win for Barcelona in February 2025 and a 3-0 away win in October 2024, with Alavés conceding at least one goal in all five encounters. In four of these games, the score was relatively even at half-time, with less than two goals scored before the break, after which Barça usually pulled away in the second half. Barcelona clearly dominated the second half in the last three encounters in particular, with Alavés’ offense struggling to get going against Barça’s defense, reflecting the clear differences in quality and tactics between the two teams. The bottom line is that Barcelona goes into this match as the clear favorite based on their head-to-head record, especially because of their strength after the break, while Alavés needs to find new solutions to stop their long losing streak at Camp Nou.
