Five competitive defeats in a row against the same opponent and yet level on points in the table – this is exactly the situation Borussia Dortmund find themselves in as they welcome VfB Stuttgart to Signal Iduna Park. Both teams are on 21 points, separated only by goal difference, and the game is particularly charged for Dortmund because Niko Kovač made his debut against Stuttgart, of all teams, in a 2-1 defeat in February. Since then, he has raised BVB’s points average to 2.02, and the team seems to be developing steadily, but the situation remains delicate.
Despite the overall positive record under Kovač, Dortmund has struggled offensively recently. In the last five league games, they have only scored one goal in regular time, with the 1-1 draw against HSV being symbolic of this: lots of possession and a stable defense, but too little punch in the final third. Stuttgart, on the other hand, travels with three wins from its last four league games and a lot of confidence, even if the additional strain of the Europa League could take its toll. The recent head-to-head record is particularly striking, with VfB winning the last five competitive games against Dortmund, including a resounding 5-1 victory in September 2024, making them something of a bogey team for BVB.
Dortmund will be without Niklas Süle and Ramy Bensebaini due to injury. At VfB, there are question marks over Luca Jaquez, who had to cut short his international break due to adductor problems, and Atakan Karazor, who may be tired after his international appearance and is therefore likely to start on the bench. It also remains to be seen whether Ermedin Demirović will return to the starting lineup immediately after serving his suspension. All this sets the scene for a match in which Dortmund will be looking to confirm their progress under Kovač and break their losing streak against Stuttgart, while VfB will be looking to defend their good form and dominance in direct encounters, with tactics, personnel decisions, and conversion of chances likely to be the deciding factors.
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
- Date and time: November 22, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 11)
Your betting tips deliberately go against the market trend, based on concrete form data and tactical question marks at BVB. In summary, you recommend Over 2.5 goals, Both teams to score: Yes (BTTS) and Stuttgart with Double Chance or directly as an underdog win at odds of around 4.3.
The visitors’ offensive statistics are the main argument in favor of over 2.5 goals. Stuttgart has scored at least twice in each of its last five games and has scored more than 1.5 goals in all five games. On the other hand, Dortmund’s defense looks more vulnerable without Süle and Bensebaini, as exemplified by the four goals conceded against Manchester City. Both factors together point to more open games and thus more goals.
The scenario Both teams to score: Yes is supported by two series. Stuttgart has scored at least one goal in each of its last five games, often in the second half, and Dortmund has also scored in five consecutive competitive games. This combination increases the likelihood that both teams will score at least once.
When betting on Stuttgart double chance or away win, the current form is particularly important. Four wins from five games and a run of five competitive wins against Dortmund give VfB a psychological advantage. The away odds of around 4.3 on Stuttgart are therefore considered value because they appear high in relation to this starting position.
However, there are clear risks involved. The betting markets see Dortmund as favorites with odds of around 1.8, which is justified by the quality of their squad and their overall form. Statistics such as 80% of BVB games having under 2.5 goals should not be ignored, as form can change quickly and individual outliers, such as a weaker defensive performance against a top opponent, are not always representative of everyday league play. In addition, combination bets, such as over 2.5 goals plus both teams to score: yes, increase the risk because several events must occur simultaneously.
In practical terms, this means that a staggered betting strategy is advisable if you see value in the odds mentioned and want to make a conscious contrarian bet. A small to moderate stake on an away win or double chance covers the higher risk with a corresponding return, while a moderate stake on both teams to score: Yes and/or over 2.5 goals addresses the higher probability of these scenarios occurring.
In conclusion, your argument for goals and both teams to score: Yes is well supported by the current form data, while the tip on Stuttgart as a value option is riskier but understandable if you give greater weight to psychological factors and the recent head-to-head record. Disciplined risk management and, if necessary, hedging via the double chance instead of a pure away win are crucial.
Dortmund form & record check
Borussia Dortmund are in third place with 21 points after ten matchdays, level on points with their upcoming opponents VfB Stuttgart, with Leipzig just one point ahead of BVB. Under Niko Kovač, the team has stabilized noticeably since he took office and now has an average of 2.02 points per game.
However, Dortmund has only scored one goal in regular time in each of its last five competitive games. Four of these five games had a maximum of one goal at half-time, and most of them remained below 2.5 goals over 90 minutes. The offensive statistics, with a lot of possession and a good pass rate, look decent, but there is a lack of finishes, dribbling, and clear chances, especially against deep-lying opponents, where the final breakthrough is often missing.
Defensively, Dortmund are much more stable than last season. They concede fewer goals and games often remain open for a long time, even though they are not very successful offensively. The number of intense runs has risen sharply, with only Hoffenheim higher in the league, which is an indication of improved fitness and work rate under Kovač.
In terms of personnel, the absence of Süle, Bensebaini, and Özcan in midfield weighs heavily, especially as it limits the options in the center. On a positive note, Dortmund has still scored in all five of its most recent games, so the goal threat has not completely dried up.
Historically, Stuttgart has been a difficult opponent for Dortmund, with the last five competitive games against VfB all ending in defeat. Whether the current phase should be seen as consolidation with a more stable defense and better physical condition or as a warning sign with offensive stagnation and a lack of creativity will likely become clear in the final stretch of the year. The focus will be on the quality and number of chances, the pace against deep-lying defenses, and how to deal with the personnel shortage in the center.
Coach Niko Kovač is likely to stick with a 3-4-2-1 formation. Gregor Kobel will be in goal, with a back three of Anton, Can, and Schlotterbeck expected in front of him.
Ryerson on the right and Svensson on the left are expected to provide width on the flanks. Jonathan Groß and Marcel Sabitzer are predicted to form the central midfield duo.
In attack, Jonas Brandt and Jude Bellingham are expected to play behind striker Serhou Guirassy.
Niklas Süle is unavailable with toe problems, Ramy Bensebaini with back problems, and Salih Özcan, who is not registered for the Champions League. According to current estimates, however, this list of absentees will not force Kovač to fundamentally rethink his plans, as the players mentioned are not currently part of the regular starting lineup.
Stuttgart Form & Record Check
VfB Stuttgart are currently in strong form. They have won four of their last five competitive games, with only the 3-1 defeat in Leipzig standing out as a negative outlier. A clear pattern is that Stuttgart have scored in all five games and the second half often goes in favor of the Swabians. The 3-2 home win against Augsburg fits perfectly into this picture, with Undav’s brace making them very dangerous in attack, but two goals conceded showing them to be vulnerable in defense.
In the table, VfB are level with Dortmund on 21 points in fourth place and only one point behind Leverkusen in fifth, which makes the situation in the top third of the table very tight. The away game in Dortmund will therefore be decisive in determining whether the upward trend can be sustained against top teams. Personnel concerns such as the injured Jaquez and Karazor, who may be exhausted from international duty, could force Sebastian Hoeneß to make tactical adjustments. The original text also contained the technical note “successfully: true,” which is to be understood here merely as an indication of the processing status.
The source text on the expected line-up for VfB Stuttgart did not so much describe the starting eleven itself as explain what support this text could provide. Among other things, it mentioned a brief summary of the most important points, a translation into other languages, a visualization of the presumed formation, a tactical analysis with strengths and weaknesses, a social media text for platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram, and answers to further questions, such as possible starting eleven alternatives and the impact on the season. Finally, it was left open as to which of these options was desired or whether another form of support would be more appropriate.
Dortmund – Stuttgart Direct comparison & statistics
The recent record between the two clubs clearly favors VfB Stuttgart. The Swabians have won all of their last five direct duels against Borussia Dortmund in the league and DFB Cup. The results ranged from narrow 1-2 defeats for Dortmund in February 2025 and November 2023 to a clear 1-5 victory in September 2024.
The distribution of goals after the break is particularly striking. In all five games, Stuttgart scored at least one goal in the second half, while Dortmund repeatedly fell behind after the break. Other results from 2024 include a 0-1 defeat in April, plus a 0-2 defeat in the DFB Cup and a 1-2 defeat in the league in 2023, both in favor of VfB.
Both athletically and mentally, this negative streak is a clear challenge for Niko Kovač and BVB, especially since many of these encounters were relatively even until halftime, with Stuttgart only then regularly making the decisive plays.
