Hamburger SV are fighting for every point, just one point above the relegation zone, but on Saturday afternoon they face one of the most difficult tasks of the season against Borussia Dortmund. The hosts, in 13th place, have picked up just four points from their last five Bundesliga games and are dealing with several setbacks after a bitter 4-1 defeat in Cologne: Pherai and Vieira are suspended, while Omari, Capaldo and Baldé are out with injuries. Coach Merlin Polzin faces enormous personnel challenges. The visitors from Dortmund are traveling to Hamburg after a 4-1 defeat at Manchester City and a complicated return journey that meant they had to cancel their training session, but Niko Kovač can rely on a largely fit squad, with the exception of Brandt, who is suffering from a muscle injury. The betting market sees BVB as clear favorites with a probability of over 50%.
- Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
- Date and time: November 8, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 10)
Recommendation: Away win for Dortmund (odds ~1.7) and over 2.5 goals (odds ~1.8) and both teams to score: Yes (odds ~1.9) as combinable value bets. Dortmund is considered to be the superior team and is in much better form with three wins from five games, while HSV has suffered three consecutive Bundesliga defeats. The absences significantly weaken Hamburg’s defense and midfield. In terms of goals, there are many indications that this will be a high-scoring game: both teams have scored in 80% of their recent games after the break, Dortmund often wins by a narrow margin (67% of their last encounters with a small lead), and HSV has conceded goals in all of their last five home games. After three defeats, Hamburg are likely to play offensively, which could create space for Dortmund. The combination of an away win, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score: yes represents a logical value approach, whereby the stake should be adjusted to your own risk profile.
HSV Form & Record Check
HSV are in 13th place, just one point above the relegation zone, with their recent 1-4 defeat in Cologne, which saw two red cards and five goals conceded after the break, revealing structural problems. The main issues are manifold: Defensive instability, especially in the second half, disciplinary lapses resulting in red cards, and serious personnel concerns with Omari out until the end of December and Capaldo and Baldé injured. The inconsistency is evident in occasional strong performances such as the cup win at Heidenheim or the 4-0 win against Mainz, but too many narrow defeats characterize the overall picture. Tactically, a more compact 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 with two stable defensive midfielders could bring more stability. Half-time management needs to be improved through earlier substitutions and specific adjustments, while discipline should be tightened with clear instructions on risky tackles. In the medium term, targeted rotations, accelerated rehabilitation, and possibly reinforcements in defensive midfield are needed. For coach Polzin, defensive stabilization is the top priority, followed by disciplinary measures and concrete solutions for personnel losses.
Coach Merlin Polzin is expected to field a 3-4-2-1 formation. Heuer Fernandes will be in goal, with Remberg, Vuskovic, and Elfadli forming the back three. Mikelbrencis will play on the right and Muheim on the left. Vieira and Sambi Lokonga are expected to form the central midfield duo, with Dompé and Philippe playing in the attacking half-positions and Königsdörffer leading the line. Omari (torn ligament), Capaldo (calf problems) and Baldé (muscle problems) are unavailable. Glatzel, Poulsen, and Pherai are expected to be on the bench, ready to provide fresh impetus if needed.
Dortmund Form & Record Check
Borussia Dortmund are in third place with 20 points, two points behind RB Leipzig and two points ahead of VfB Stuttgart. Under Niko Kovač, the team has shown more stability with three wins, one draw, and one defeat in their last five competitive games, although some victories, such as the 1-0 win against Augsburg, were not particularly dominant. The 4-1 defeat at Manchester City revealed defensive vulnerabilities against individually stronger opponents, although Dortmund has scored in each of its last five games. Julian Brandt is out with muscle problems, which weakens the team’s build-up play, while Nico Schlotterbeck returns and could bring stability to the defense. Jobe Bellingham has improved and is receiving praise from Kovač. The problematic return trip from Manchester, with several hours of waiting on the tarmac, led to a missed training session, but Kovač is hoping to continue the streak of three Bundesliga wins.
Coach Niko Kovač is expected to rely on a back three again, although preparation options were limited after the 1-4 defeat in Manchester and the missed training session. Gregor Kobel will be in goal, with Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Ramy Bensebaini defending in front of him. Ryerson is expected to play on the right and Svensson on the left. Marcel Sabitzer and Cyriel Nmecha are expected to form the central midfield, while Jonas Beier and Karim Adeyemi will provide attacking options behind Serhou Guirassy. Schlotterbeck returned to final training and is ready to play, while Julian Brandt is out with muscle problems. According to Sport Bild, Nmecha is considered part of BVB’s “future axis,” on which the club wants to focus in the long term.
HSV – Dortmund Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between HSV and Borussia Dortmund from the five meetings between 2016 and 2018 clearly favors the Westphalians: five games, five defeats, no points for Hamburg. Dortmund scored in all games and led at halftime in four of the five games, while HSV did not score a goal before the break in any of these duels. Hamburg conceded at least two goals in every game, with their heaviest defeat being a 5-2 loss at the Volksparkstadion in November 2016. More than 1.5 goals were scored in all five encounters, and in four cases even more than 2.5 goals. However, this historical dominance of BVB is only of limited significance for current comparisons, as the games date back to a time when HSV was still playing in the Bundesliga.
