Alaves – Sevilla
On Saturday afternoon, Mendizorroza will host an explosive clash between Deportivo Alavés and Sevilla, with recent history clearly favoring the hosts. The Basques are sitting pretty in 7th place with seven points and recently even won the city derby against Athletic Bilbao thanks to an own goal, while Sevilla are still searching for consistency in 12th place with only four points. Alavés have triumphed three times in the last four league encounters, with the two teams only managing a 1-1 draw in April this year. What’s fascinating is that both teams almost always score, and the games are usually high-scoring, with Sevilla scoring in all five direct duels but losing four times. Matías Almeyda will have to do without five players in his first away game as Sevilla coach. The absences of Djibril Sow and Akor Adams due to muscle injuries are particularly painful, while Eduardo Coudet has a full squad to choose from and is unlikely to make any changes after the derby victory.
- Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and time: 20.09.2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 5)
Alaves form & record check
Deportivo Alavés has had a mixed start to the new season, but is in a respectable position with seven points from four games. Its seventh place in the table is somewhat misleading, as direct rival Villarreal has collected exactly the same number of points. The team’s recent form shows that it is undergoing a transition under Eduardo Coudet: after a successful start to the season with a 2-1 win against Levante, they promptly suffered a setback at Real Betis, where they were narrowly defeated 1-0. The draw against Atlético Madrid felt more like a point gained than two points lost. The team is developing into a real second-half draw specialist, with four of their last five games ending goalless in the final stages, which certainly speaks for a stable defense. At the same time, they lack punch after the break, with only 80% of games producing more than 2.5 goals. The surprise 1-0 win in the derby against Athletic Bilbao five days ago was a minor coup. Alex Berenguer scored the decisive goal with an own goal, but behind it was a disciplined performance. Mariano Díaz got his first chance from the start, but had to make way for Toni Martínez at half-time. Coudet still seems to be experimenting with the best line-up, as demonstrated by the three substitutions at half-time against Athletic, when Carlos Vicente, Jon Guridi and Toni Martínez brought fresh impetus to the game.
Coach Eduardo Coudet is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation, which has proven effective in recent weeks. Sivera will be in goal, while the defense could feature Tenaglia, Garcés, Diarra, and Jonny Otto. Antonio Blanco and Pablo Ibáñez are likely to form the central midfield, with a creative trio of Carlos Vicente, Aleñá, and Gurudi behind them. I expect Mariano Díaz to lead the line after he made his first start against Athletic.
Sevilla Form & Record Check
Sevilla’s form has been mixed this season. After four league games, the Andalusians are in 12th place with only four points, just one point behind Atlético Madrid and level on points with Rayo Vallecano. The 2-2 draw against Elche six days ago was indicative of Sevilla’s current form: after Isaac Romero’s early lead with an assist from Vargas, the team faltered after the break and had to wait until the 85th minute before Peque Fernández scored the equalizer. Suffering two defeats in a row shows the fragility of the team. The trend in terms of goal threat is particularly striking: Sevilla has scored in all four league games, but has conceded goals in three of the four matches. The 2-1 win at Girona remains their only away victory so far, while the home defeat to Getafe (1-2) and the spectacular 2-3 defeat in Bilbao at the start of the season revealed their weaknesses. Coach Matías Almeyda has the full support of his players. Marcao recently emphasized that the Argentine understands the players and brings fresh ideas to the table, even if not everyone has adapted to his ideas yet. The personnel situation further complicates matters: with Sow, Ejuke, Adams, and Jordán out due to injury, the team is missing key players, which significantly limits the rotation options.
Sevilla are expected to line up in their usual 3-4-2-1 formation, which Matías Almeyda has used to stabilize the team. Nyland could be between the posts, while Azpilicueta, Nianzou, and Marcão form the back three. However, personnel concerns cannot be dismissed, with Sow, Ejuke, Adams, and Jordán all out, significantly limiting rotation options. In attacking midfield, Vargas and Agoumé are likely to provide creative impetus, while Isaac Romero could operate as the lone striker. The line-up on the wings will be interesting, with Juanlu Sánchez and Alfon González providing width.
H2H Alaves – Sevilla Head-to-head & statistics
The head-to-head record from the last five meetings speaks for itself: Alavés leads with three wins to Sevilla’s one, but the most recent match in April ended in a 1-1 draw in Seville. A clear pattern emerges in the encounters between the two teams: both sides almost always score, with Sevilla finding the net in all five games. At the same time, however, they also concede goals on a regular basis, which makes for high-scoring games. A remarkable streak characterizes this pairing: Sevilla has scored in each of the last five direct encounters, mostly in the second half, while Alavés has also conceded at least one goal in each of its last five games against the Andalusians, often after the break. The most spectacular encounters are a little further back, with Alavés winning 4-3 at home in August 2023 and then winning again in Seville a few months later with a 3-2 victory. Sevilla’s only success in this series came in January 2023 in the cup with a 1-0 win in Vitoria.
The betting market rates the match with a slight advantage for Alavés at 2.4, but the balance of the odds, with a draw and a Sevilla win both at 3.1, reflects the uncertainty. The tip “under 2.5 goals” at 1.56 seems entirely justified, as four of Alavés’ last five league games have ended with a maximum of two goals and Sevilla’s creative center has been significantly weakened by the absences of Sow and Jordán. Under Eduardo Coudet, Alavés prefers a controlled game anyway, which fits perfectly with this prediction. At the same time, “both teams to score” offers solid value at even odds, as Sevilla has scored in every league game so far and Alavés is fielding a genuine center forward for the first time with Mariano in the starting lineup. The draw at 3.1 could prove particularly attractive, especially as Almeyda still needs time to fully implement his ideas at Sevilla, while Alavés are traditionally difficult to beat at their home ground, Mendizorroza.
