Real Madrid vs. Mallorca
Xabi Alonso will face a special duel against his former coach Jagoba Arrasate on Saturday at the Santiago Bernabéu when Real Madrid host RCD Mallorca on the third matchday of the Primera División. The Royals are in third place in the table with six points after two wins, while the Islanders are in 16th place with only one point. The new Madrid coach’s team put in an impressive performance in their 3-0 win in Oviedo, with Mbappé scoring twice and Vinícius Júnior sealing the victory after coming on as a substitute. Interestingly, Alonso had initially benched the Brazilian, which caused quite a stir. Mallorca continues to fight for its first points of the season: After a 3-0 defeat to Barcelona in its opener, it managed a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo, with Mateu Morey scoring the late equalizer. Arrasate recently strengthened his team with Jan Virgili from FC Barcelona, who joined from the Catalans for around €3.5 million. The recent record between the two teams speaks for itself: Madrid have won four of the last five encounters, including a 2-1 victory in May and a 3-0 win in the Super Cup semi-final. The bookmakers see the hosts as clear favorites, which is quite remarkable given Madrid’s personnel problems with the absences of Bellingham, Camavinga, and Mendy.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: August 30, 2025, 9:30 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 3)
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid has started the new season with two commanding victories and is in impressive form. Last Saturday’s 3-0 away win at Real Oviedo was a statement of intent from the Madrid side, with Mbappé scoring twice and Vinícius adding the final touch to seal the victory. The new coach is already making his mark and is not afraid to make bold personnel decisions. Alonso’s post-match statement that players “have to earn respect” suggests a new wind is blowing at the Bernabéu. The two wins without conceding a goal so far speak for a well-organized defense, even if the real tests are yet to come. With six points and a goal difference of +4, Madrid is already in a good position, but shares the top spot with Barcelona and Getafe. This early balance in the table shows how competitive the league could become. Toni Kroos’ warning to his former teammate Alonso is likely to resonate: past successes do not protect against pressure if three years without a title pass. Personnel concerns in midfield remain an issue, although Bellingham could return sooner than expected. His targeted comeback before the October break would give Madrid additional options for the difficult games against Atlético and Villarreal.
Xabi Alonso is likely to field his starting eleven in the usual 4-2-3-1 system, although the absence of some key players must be taken into account. Jude Bellingham is still out after his shoulder surgery, although there are reports of a possible earlier return. Eduardo Camavinga is also unavailable. In the expected lineup, Courtois should be in goal, while Carvajal, Rüdiger, Huijsen, and Carreras could feature in defense. Ferland Mendy is unavailable due to thigh problems. The midfield is likely to consist of Tchouaméni and Valverde, with Rodrygo, Güler, and the young Mastantuono playing behind them. Mbappé would lead the attack. This prediction is based on previous appearances under Alonso, but the final lineup will not be announced until shortly before kickoff.
Mallorca Form & Record Check
Mallorca are in a difficult position ahead of their match at the Bernabéu. After two matchdays, the club is in 16th place in the table with just one point, and their goal difference of three goals conceded and three scored highlights their current problems. The last two league games have been sobering: first, a clear 0-3 home defeat against Barcelona in the opening game, then a late 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. Mallorca has not won a single game in the last five, instead recording two draws and three defeats. Particularly noticeable is their weakness in the first half, where the team has failed to score in four of five games. At least the Balearic Islands showed morale against Celta and equalized through Mateu Morey in the 87th minute. Jagoba Arrasate has strengthened his squad: 19-year-old winger Jan Virgili has signed a five-year contract after FC Barcelona retained a buy-back option and 50 percent of his rights. Together with the already completed signing of Pablo Torre, Mallorca’s attacking play is set to be revitalized. The current league table situation is not yet dramatic, but the gap to the safer regions is already growing. With Valencia on the same number of points directly above them and only one point ahead of Sevilla below, it is clear how close it is in the lower midfield. Another point loss against Real Madrid could quickly put Mallorca in an uncomfortable position.
Jagoba Arrasate is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation, which has established itself in the season’s games so far. Leo Román is expected to be in goal, while the defense could feature Morey, Valjent, Raíllo, and Mojica. In central midfield, Mascarell and Antonio Sánchez could form the double six. New signing Jan Virgili from FC Barcelona is available as another attacking player, but is expected to start on the bench. In attack, Asano, Darder, and Torre are likely to play behind striker Muriqi. This lineup is, of course, only a prediction, as Arrasate could make tactical adjustments until shortly before kickoff. It will be particularly interesting to see how the new signings are integrated into the existing system.
H2H Real – Mallorca Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The recent record between Real Madrid and Mallorca gives the visitors little cause for hope. In the last five direct encounters, Los Blancos have won four times and drawn once. Mallorca have been waiting for a win against Real for over a year and a half. The last meeting in May 2025 ended in a narrow 2-1 victory for Real Madrid at the Bernabéu, with the Madrid side often showing their strength in the second half. In four of the five encounters, they decided the game after the break. The 3-0 victory in the Super Cup semi-final in January 2025 was particularly clear. The only draw came in August 2024 in Mallorca, when the two teams separated 1-1. Otherwise, Real clearly dominated the series, also winning 1-0 away on the island in 2024. A remarkable pattern emerges in the distribution of goals: all five matches saw few goals in the first half, with Real scoring at least once in each encounter. Mallorca, on the other hand, conceded goals in all five games and rarely posed any real problems for the Royal defense.
The tip for over 2.5 goals is supported by the impressive 80% rate at which both teams have scored or conceded at least two goals in their most recent games. Mallorca has conceded goals in four of five games, while Real Madrid has shown offensive power despite the aforementioned absences. The betting market shows a very one-sided expectation with odds of only 1.2 for a home win, but the goal statistics suggest a high-scoring game. The second tip of over 1.5 goals in the second half also makes sense: Real Madrid has scored in 80% of its recent second halves, and with Mbappé as a key player, Alonso has a weapon for late decisions. The substitution of Vinícius for Oviedo in the 63rd minute, who then went on to score, clearly illustrates this tendency. Mallorca has seen more than 1.5 goals after the break in two of five games, indicating their vulnerability in the closing stages. The third tip against “Both teams to score” is supported by the fact that Mallorca has gone five games without a win and Real has kept a clean sheet in two of its last three encounters. With new signings Jan Virgili and Pablo Torre, Mallorca’s offense has yet to find its footing, while Real’s defense remains solid even without Alaba.
