ATP Tournament in Halle, Final, Sunday, 22.06.2025, 15:00
Alexander Bublik and Daniil Medvedev fought hard for their places in the final in Halle. Both players had to go to the third set on Saturday. The Russian even spent three hours on court with Alexander Zverev.
According to the odds, the world number eleven is slightly ahead, but I don’t think a win bet is a wise idea in this matchup. In my Bublik Medvedev tip, I’m going for the tiebreak odds from Bet365. The sets are unlikely to be short.
Bublik has already toyed with the idea of hanging up his racket. Although the Kazakh only turned 28 a few days ago, he has had a very weak phase with countless defeats over many months.
A trip to Las Vegas finally brought about a turnaround, as he himself recounted at a press conference. After his trip to the gambling paradise, he reached the final of the Challenger tournament in Phoenix and later reached the round of 16 at the Madrid Masters and the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.
He also won a Challenger title in Turin. Now Bublik has the chance to win his second 500 trophy and he is back where he won his first, at the classic grass court tournament in Halle. In 2023, he celebrated here after defeating Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, and Andrey Rublev.
Two of the three mentioned are currently in the top three of the world rankings, and he met the South Tyrolean again this year. He denied him his earliest tournament exit since 2023 and took revenge for the thrashing at the French Open. Sinner won in straight sets.
Medvedev has slowly forgotten what it feels like to hold a winner’s trophy in his hands. He didn’t win a single one in 2024 and didn’t win one this year either. Apart from the semi-finals in Indian Wells, the quarter-finals in Madrid were the highlight of his season.
While he is considering skipping the clay court season he hates so much next year, he feels much more comfortable on grass, winning 70 percent of his matches in his career and winning a tournament on the green in Mallorca.
In Halle, he reached the final in 2022, but Hubert Hurkacz came out on top. He also proved his qualities by reaching the semi-finals in the last two Wimbledon tournaments. But once again, a top server could throw a spanner in the works for his title hopes.
Bet365, where you can watch the match via live stream and pay no betting tax, has given Medvedev odds of 1.54, while Bublik starts at 2.37. I also see the Russian slightly ahead, but I’m far from putting either of the two winner odds on a betting slip.
Ultimately, Medvedev has the better counter-attacking and defensive game and can play long rallies with great stamina without making mistakes. And after a tiring number of shots, he suddenly hits a crazy angle shot or a perfect shot towards the line.
This has driven Zverev to despair. Only when the German was playing at full throttle was he able to score easier points without having to fight against the Medvedev machine. And I currently have more faith in Bublik than in Zverev, who tends to fall back into passivity from time to time.
Bublik plays his game quite consistently and his serves are difficult to return on grass. Throughout the entire tournament, he has only lost three service games, which is ten sets and an average of 0.33 breaks per set against Bublik.
Medvedev can top that, though. He only lost his first service game against Zverev, and that was it. For me, it definitely calls for a tiebreak, for which we are still getting a whopping 1.63 odds from our top bookmakers.
A nice fact: Medvedev has won all seven previous duels, but I wouldn’t call Medvedev’s 1.54 odds value. None of the matches took place on grass, and there have only been two matches since August 2021, the last one almost a year and a half ago, so we can’t talk about current form.
My Bublik Medvedev tip
0:7 is obviously a poor head-to-head statistic for Bublik, who is playing Medvedev on grass for the first time, but the current world number 45 leads 1:0 in titles on that surface.
However, they will find it difficult to repeat their triumph. Medvedev will fight back and make Bublik’s service games more complicated than any of his previous opponents. At the same time, the Russian is sometimes so passive that a courageous Bublik could win points quickly.
As you can see, with these two different playing styles, it could get really interesting. For one, attack is the best defense, and Medvedev shows that defense can also be the best offense.
Medvedev has only lost one service game in Halle, and Bublik has lost just three. In what is likely to be a thrilling final, I expect at least one tiebreak.
My Bublik Medvedev prediction is: Tiebreak in the match.
