ATP Masters in Rome, Round of 16, Tuesday, May 13, 2025, 5:00 p.m.
Alexander Zverev faces an uncomfortable opponent in the round of 16 in Rome. The defending champion will face Arthur Fils, who defeated him less than two months ago at the Miami Masters. He has also lost to the Frenchman on clay.
I expect a very exciting match with some strong phases from the supposed underdog from the small town of Bondoufle, and in my Fils Zverev tip, I’m going for a set win for the world number 14. Bet365 offers the right odds.
Zverev breezed through the first two rounds. His 6-2, 6-1 victory over Camilo Ugo Carabelli was followed by a 6-4, 6-0 win over Vilius Gabas on Sunday. Once again, the Hamburg native impressed with his first-rate return game, winning a whopping 59 percent of the points available.
As strong as his performances were and as clear as the results were, he now faces his first match against a much tougher opponent. Gaubas, for example, is playing in the main draw for the first time, and Ugo Carabelli has not exactly been in top form in recent tournaments.
Fils is a different kettle of fish. The odds offered by Winamax and Co. are correspondingly different. Zverev remains the favorite, but at 1.60, the odds are not particularly high.
The Frenchman starts at 2.30. I actually see the matchup as even closer, which is why I think 2.30 for Fils definitely offers value for two-way betting enthusiasts.
Like Francisco Cerundolo, who has beaten Zverev in all three of their encounters – most recently at the last tournament in Madrid – Fils also has exactly the weapons to hurt Zverev at the moment.
The basis: a fast, aggressive game with a powerful and reliable forehand. Zverev, on the other hand, struggles with his forehand from time to time, then drops back behind the baseline to win points with long rallies and defensive skills.
Zverev needs a day where he feels comfortable with his right arm to win this match. At the same time, his strong serve should allow him to breathe some air against the constant pressure.
Overall, I expect anything but a clear victory for Zverev. I think Fils’ victory is a bit too close for comfort in the end, but I find the 1.48 odds for the Frenchman to win in straight sets at Bet365 very attractive. You can also conveniently top up your balance there with PayPal.
The fact that Fils has the perfect antidote for the match against Zverev is one thing, but his first few matches also suggest that he will put in a good performance on Tuesday.
In his previous matches, he took out two top players in Tallon Griekspoor (6-2, 6-2) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-6, 6-4, 6-2). These are opponents who have given Zverev a hard time on several occasions in the past.
Two good opening matches in Rome and in Barcelona and Monaco saw him reach the semi-finals and quarter-finals. There, he was stopped each time by high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz. Only his straight-sets defeat in Madrid against Francisco Comesana in his opening match does not fit the picture.
He won the last duel against Zverev in Miami, where we saw his second victory in the last three matches. The 20-year-old had already prevailed in the final in Hamburg in 2024, so he has already hurt the three-time Grand Slam finalist on clay.
Overall, Zverev still leads 3-2. However, Fils has managed to win at least one set in the last four encounters. He only lost in straight sets in their first match in Hamburg in 2023.
He is now playing at a much higher level. A few months ago, Zverev said on his own podcast, “A to Z,” that he expects Fils to make his breakthrough this tennis season.
The title is still pending, but reaching at least the quarterfinals in four of the last five tournaments is already impressive.
My Fils Zverev tip
Zverev thinks extremely highly of Fils. The Tokyo Olympic champion is particularly impressed by the Frenchman’s fast forehand and consistently powerful playing style. It’s a combination that could cause problems for Zverev if he doesn’t feel confident with his forehand.
This is because the German then makes unnecessary mistakes, plays balls that are too short or too long, and ends up wandering behind the baseline again in order to control the balls better.
In recent tournaments, Zverev has struggled against these aggressive players from the upper echelons of the world rankings. That’s why I think the man who has won at least one set in their last four encounters is capable of winning at least one set!
My Fils Zverev tip: Set win Fils.
