Monte Carlo Masters in Monaco, 2nd round, Wednesday, 08.04.2025, 1:00 pm
The last duel between Francisco Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz was not that long ago. It was only in mid-March that the two number one players in their country faced each other. It was a match for a place in the semi-finals of Indian Wells, and the favorite came out on top.
And I still see the Spaniard in the lead in Monte Carlo. Last year, the 2024 Channel Slam winner had to cancel his participation. This year, he is in the running in the principality and, in my opinion, should close the bag in two sets, my Cerundolo Alcaraz tip. Bet365 has the right odds.
I still remember the last match well, I followed it and wrote the appropriate prediction for you beforehand. I had already recommended the current number three in the world win 2-0 and the match ended 6-3, 7-6. I only had to worry a little in the second set.
It was the third duel, Alcaraz now leads 2-1 in the head-to-head, and the match, which first took place in 2019, saw Alcaraz, then just 15 years old, lose to Cerundolo, who was five years older, in two sets. They played the rematch on grass at Queens Club in 2024 (6-1, 7-5).
A little later, the man from El Palmar won Wimbledon for the second time. 2025 is not yet the Spaniard’s year, and that’s complaining at a very high level. After all, he won 15 of 19 matches, but only won one title, the 500 in Rotterdam.
At the Australian Open, he was already out in the quarterfinals. In Indian Wells, he lost to tournament winner Jack Draper in the last four players, and in Miami, there was the mega-surprise against David Goffin. The Belgian came back from a set deficit and turned the match around.
Now he gets to play on his favorite surface, clay, where he can still best show off his skills. In addition to his strong forehand, which he uses to repeatedly pick up the pace and dictate the rallies, his stops on ash are particularly effective.
The 21-year-old brings a versatile game to the table, pushes his opponents to the limit with his rhythm changes and his ability to keep a cool head.
Against Cerundolo (4.50) he is the favorite (1.17). But I have seen lower odds this season. The still quite high 1.17 is probably still due to the early elimination in Miami. All the better for us, because we get a strong 1.63 at Bet365 for the smooth 2-0 victory.
And that is still free of tax at the highly esteemed betting provider. In addition, you benefit from ultra-fast payouts at Bet365, and you can transfer your balance in no time with PayPal, for example. You can also get a strong bonus with the code: “VIPANGEBOT”.
One of the reasons why I keep coming back here for tennis betting is that you can mix several odds using the bet configurator. I realize that bet builders are now common on almost all sites, but not in the tennis section.
Since I expect a few more breaks from Alcaraz against a Cerundolo, who is always struggling with his serve, the more risk-taking among you could add a bet that the tiebreak on Wednesday will not happen in order to push the odds over the 2.00 mark. By the way, some of the tiebreak bets don’t come in until a little later.
Cerundolo performed much better in Miami than Alcaraz, only had to pack his tennis bag after the quarterfinals, as in Indian Wells, beating Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul before losing to Grigor Dimitrov in a dramatic three-set match.
Unlike the seeded Alcaraz, he already had to play the first round at the Monte Carlo Masters. Against Fabio Fognini (6-0, 6-3) he had an easier day at work, spending just 63 minutes on the court with the Italian.
My Cerundolo Alcaraz tip
Alcaraz in round two, not an easy draw for the currently best Argentine in the world of tennis. In Indian Wells a few weeks ago, he lost in straight sets. He only won 11 of 16 points on his second serve.
Even his already strong first serve percentage of 78 did not help. I don’t see any of Cerundolo’s playing means with which he could pose a threat to Alcaraz.
As so often, the Spaniard can only beat himself. Or his opponent has a superhuman day in which a very large proportion of risk shots land in the court. However, I don’t expect that and therefore take the following odds from the Bet365 app.
Alcaraz wins in two sets.
