ATP Masters Indian Wells, Semifinal, Saturday, 03/15/2025, 12:30 a.m.
Will it finally be enough for the title in 2025 or will he end up empty-handed again? Daniil Medvedev is just one step away from the final in Indian Wells. However, the man who has already hurt him in 2023 and 2024 could be waiting for him in the final.
But first things first, let’s take a look at my Rune Medvedev tip. I’d like to tell you why I think the two-time finalist will come out on top and will therefore place a bet on him to win.
Losing the final of a major Masters twice in a row? More than annoying! That’s exactly what happened to Daniil Medvedev in Indian Wells. Both last year and the year before that, Carlos Alcaraz was too strong in the end.
Good for Medvedev: He won’t face Alcaraz in the semi-finals. Bad for Medvedev: There is a very high probability that the Spaniard will be waiting in the final! But first, the Russian has to overcome the last hurdle before the final, of course.
Holger Rune is waiting, and the two already met here in Indian Wells last year. Medvedev won through just as smoothly in the quarterfinals as he did in the 2023 final in Rome, with a 2-1 lead in the direct comparison.
If our Apple Pay bookmakers have their way, Medvedev is now back in front with average odds of 1.54 to 2.40.
The 29-year-old had disgraced himself at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, being knocked out early by Learner Tien. He also performed weakly in the following tournaments and never reached a final.
It is therefore all the more important that he does well in Indian Wells. He beat Bu Yunchao 6-2, 6-2 to start the tournament, with Alex Michelsen withdrawing immediately after the start of the match.
Medvedev showed his best tennis against Tommy Paul, knocking out the American with a quick 6-4, 6-0. Medvedev really had to fight in the quarterfinals against Arthur Fils. 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 – the spectators got a lot for their money!
Medvedev cheated his way through on serve, winning only 61% of points on his first service. Three break opportunities were enough; he himself gave Fils eight chances to break.
Is it a good omen that the Russian has never been knocked out in the semi-finals in Indian Wells before? If he loses, it’s much earlier in the tournament or only in the final.
For Holger Rune, on the other hand, a semi-final in Indian Wells is a first. In 2024, he achieved his best result with a quarter-final appearance, but lost to Medvedev, as mentioned above. How has the Dane performed so far this year?
Actually, his Australian Open was not bad at all; he was knocked out in the round of 16 by the later champion Jannik Sinner. But after that, he was unable to confirm his promising form.
Rune only made it to the round of 16 at best, so it wasn’t necessarily to be expected that he would play in the final in Indian Wells. He started with a 6-2, 6-4 against Corentin Moutet, then knocked out Ugo Humbert with a 5-7, 6-4, 7-5.
Stefanos Tsitsipas was also eliminated, with Rune winning 6-4, 6-4. Against Tallon Griekspoor, the 21-year-old showed spirit for the second time after trailing, winning 5-7, 6-0, 6-3. There is no question that he did not have the easiest opponents.
He still made nine double faults against Humbert, but then pulled himself together. Here in Indian Wells, he finally seems to be finding the consistency that he just couldn’t bring to the court before.
The problem: with Holger Rune, you never know exactly how long a supposed stability will last. Will the motivation to play his first final in 2025 be strong enough?
My Rune Medvedev Tip
We are dealing with a surprisingly strong Holger Rune! The Dane is showing his best side in Indian Wells, knocking out strong opponents. But now, Daniil Medvedev is waiting, who wants to reach the final for the third time in a row.
In my opinion, we will see a duel between two evenly matched opponents. Medvedev’s experience could be the deciding factor, which is why I am betting on a close result and ultimately predicting:
Medvedev reaches the final!
