Union Berlin – Holstein Kiel
Our Union Berlin – Kiel tip is: Union Berlin win – 1.60 odds
- Holstein Kiel have not won in six league games
- Union Berlin have only lost one of their last three home games
- In the first half of the season, the Irons won 2-0 away to Kiel
The battle to avoid relegation in the Bundesliga is intensifying: on Sunday, Union Berlin will host bottom-of-the-table Holstein Kiel, which is in 18th place with 13 points, at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. After the heavy 6-0 defeat in Dortmund, a mental crisis has spread among the “iron” team of coach Steffen Baumgart – striker Marin Ljubicic even spoke of “the most painful setback of his career”.
With 24 points and 13th place in the table, Union is still above the relegation zone, but the negative trend is clearly affecting the Berliners. Holstein Kiel, who recently suffered a 2-0 defeat against Bayer Leverkusen, are hoping to turn things around despite the precarious situation. In the first half of the season, Union defeated the storks 2-0. In addition, the absence of U21 national player Aljoscha Kemlein is complicating the situation for the Berliners. He will be out for the rest of the season after foot surgery.
Nevertheless, it should still be an exciting game: on the one hand, Kiel have shown in the past that they can cause Union trouble, and on the other hand, both teams are currently in acute danger of relegation. Find out who comes out on top in this relegation battle in our Union Berlin – Kiel prediction.
Union Berlin – Kiel info
- Venue: Stadium An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
- Date and Time: 02.03.2025, 3:30 pm
- Competition: Bundesliga, 24th matchday
- TV broadcast: DAZN
Union Berlin Form & Balance Check
The form of the iron is pointing steeply downwards. The 0-6 in Dortmund has left deep scars, especially since Union was already unable to convince in the 1-2 in Mönchengladbach and in three other games. Although they managed a surprising 4-0 win in Hoffenheim a few weeks ago, the momentum from that quickly fizzled out. With only one win in their last five Bundesliga games, the relegation places are getting dangerously close. Currently, they are in 13th place with 24 points, which still allows a small cushion, but given the atmosphere in Köpenick, it offers no security.
Injuries
The loss of Aljoscha Kemlein, who was considered one of the most exciting options in the midfield until he injured his foot, is particularly painful. In the upcoming home game against bottom-of-the-league Kiel, a sense of achievement is now urgently needed to avoid being sucked into the relegation battle.
Union Berlin Facts & Analysis
- 13th place in the table
- Last two league games lost
- Last BL game lost 0:6 against Dortmund
Union Berlin will probably line up in a 4-2-3-1 system. After the 6-0 defeat against BVB, coach Steffen Baumgart is likely to focus on the shaky central defense with Doekhi and Leite. In defensive midfield, Khedira and Tousart are expected to form the double six. Marin Ljubicic, who was visibly frustrated by the clear defeat against Dortmund, is likely to start again in the center of the forward line. Jeong and Hollerbach are ready on the wings, while Schäfer is expected in the number ten position. The long-term absence of Aljoscha Kemlein forces Baumgart to make personnel adjustments, but the final starting lineup will, as usual, only be made public shortly before the kick-off.
Kiel Form & Bilanz Check
Holstein Kiel are in an equally precarious situation with 13 points and 18th place in the table. Although the gap between them and VfL Bochum is still manageable at two points, the storks’ ongoing winless streak speaks volumes. The 2-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, like the previous high-scoring 4-3 defeat to Bayern Munich, highlighted their defensive weaknesses. Although Kiel often score themselves (they even managed to score in the games against Bochum and Wolfsburg), their defense concedes at least two goals on average – too many to consistently score points.
Strong mentality
At least the second halves reflect an unbroken will: the team fights to the end and repeatedly forces late chances. But to avert relegation, Holstein Kiel urgently needs to start the game more stably. The encounter against Union Berlin could now be a make-or-break moment – if they can beat their direct rivals, their chances of avoiding relegation remain intact.
Kiel facts & analysis
- Bottom of the table
- Not won in last six league games
- Last BL game 0:2 against Leverkusen
Holstein Kiel are expected to field the tried and tested 3-5-2 system again under coach Marcel Rapp. Weiner will be in goal, while Komenda, Johansson and Zec will form a back four. In midfield, the trio of Erras, Holtby and Remberg could be in the center; Knudsen and Gigović are likely to be on the wings. Machino and Harres are expected to lead the line, although personnel changes remain a possibility after the 2-0 defeat to Leverkusen. Attacking alternatives like Pichler and Bernhardsson are ready and waiting on the bench. It remains to be seen whether Rapp will stick with this system or change it at short notice – a final decision is usually only made shortly before the game begins.
Union Berlin – Kiel Head to Head & Statistics
In the last five meetings, there has not been a single draw: Union recorded three wins, while Kiel was successful twice. Officially, Union Berlin won 2-0 in October 2024, but in January 2025, Kiel managed a 2-1 win in a friendly game – both times the game remained rather low-scoring. In general, the Berliners have always scored in these duels, but at the same time, not a single game has ended with more than three goals. It is noticeable that Union often only really turn up in the second half, which leads to many late goals, while Kiel wobbles defensively just after the break. In competitive games, however, Holstein Kiel have never been able to beat Union: their 2-1 friendly win remains their best-ever result.
These statistics underpin why both teams will go into this game with growing tension.
