RB Leipzig – FC St. Pauli
Our Leipzig – St. Pauli prediction is: There will be two to three goals – 2.10 odds
- The bet would have worked for six of the last eight Pauli guest appearances
- The first leg ended 0:0
- Leipzig have only scored more than twice in the last five home games
On Sunday evening, the clash between Leipzig and St. Pauli will conclude the 21st matchday of the Bundesliga. Leipzig are currently in fourth place with 33 points, while St. Pauli are in 13th place with 21 points.
Leipzig played a draw for the third time in a row on the last match day, with a 0-0 against Union. Thus, the Bulls have not won in four games and could lose their CL place to three teams below them this week. St. Pauli, on the other hand, is currently in good form and has fought its way out of the relegation zone with good results.
The team has not been beaten in three games and has recorded two wins. On the last matchday, there was a small setback, with a 1-1 draw against Augsburg. You can find out who will come out on top in this duel in our Leipzig – St. Pauli betting tip.
Leipzig – St. Pauli info
- Date & Time: 09.02.2025, 5:30 pm
- Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
- Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 21
- TV broadcast/livestream: DAZN
Leipzig Form & record check
RB Leipzig are currently going through a difficult phase. The Saxons have not won in their last four Bundesliga games (three draws, one defeat), which equals the club’s previous negative record. The last time Leipzig went without a win was from the ninth to the twelfth matchday. Particularly bitter: for the first time in their Bundesliga history, the Red Bulls started a second half of the season with three games without a win (three draws).
Offensively, things aren’t going well either. Leipzig have not scored in their last four league games against FC St. Pauli – that is the club’s negative record against an opponent in professional football. There was already a 0-0 draw in Hamburg in the first leg, and RB Leipzig were only able to beat St. Pauli in the DFB Cup this season (4-2 in the second round). Their weakness in front of goal is also reflected in their finishing: with only 221 shots on target in the Bundesliga this season (11.1 per game), Leipzig are in penultimate place, with only Holstein Kiel managing fewer (217). In addition, the Saxons have already gone four times without scoring – most recently at Union Berlin. The only other two goalless games in a row in this Bundesliga season were on the third and fourth matchdays, when Leipzig did not score against Union and then in St. Pauli.
Strength against promoted teams
Despite the current dip in form, history favors the Saxons. RB Leipzig are undefeated in their previous 34 Bundesliga games against promoted teams, winning 30 of them – that’s the longest such streak in Bundesliga history. However, the only point loss in the last 18 such duels came, of all places, in the 0-0 draw at St. Pauli in the first half of the season.
Leipzig have not been as dominant as usual in their home games this season either. The 18 points they have scored in nine home games so far is the weakest record in the club’s Bundesliga history (2021/22 also 18). In head-to-head duels with St. Pauli, the Red Bulls have nine clean sheets this season – only Bayern Munich have as many. At the same time, however, Leipzig is one of the weaker teams in the league in terms of running: at 114.4 km per game, only VfL Bochum (113.0 km) surpasses the Saxons in this category.
Leipzig Facts & analysis
- Without a win in four Bundesliga games
- In the last four league games, they have remained goalless against Pauli
- 30 of the 34 BL games against promoted won
St. Pauli Form & Bilanz Check
St. Pauli is the second-best team in the Bundesliga second half of the season after FC Bayern Munich. With seven points and a goal difference of +5 from the first three games, the Kiezkicker have made the best start to the second half of the season in their Bundesliga history. In addition, they remained unbeaten for three consecutive games for the first time this season.
St. Pauli’s defensive strength is particularly impressive. With only 22 goals conceded after 20 games, the promoted team has the second-best defense in the Bundesliga behind FC Bayern (19). Since 2000, only two Bundesliga promoted teams have had an even better defensive record after 20 games: FC Ingolstadt 2015/16 (21 goals conceded) and Leipzig itself in the 2016/17 season (20). The number of clean sheets is also remarkable: with seven games to zero, St. Pauli is ranked third in the league, tied with RB Leipzig and behind FC Bayern (nine).
However, there are deficits in attack. The Kiezkickers have already gone ten times without scoring – the highest number in the Bundesliga. They have also taken the fewest shots on target in the league (65, 3.3 per game). Nevertheless, Johannes Eggestein has been in strong form recently: the striker scored once in each of his last two Bundesliga away games (in Stuttgart and Heidenheim). Should he score in Leipzig as well, he would be the first player to score for St. Pauli in three consecutive Bundesliga away games. In five previous Bundesliga appearances against RB Leipzig, however, he has remained scoreless.
St. Pauli with the strongest running performance
One of the Kiezkicker’s trump cards is their running strength. With an average of 121.3 km per game, St. Pauli is the team in the league that runs the most, while Leipzig, with 114.4 km, is in second-to-last place in this category. Three St. Pauli players are among the top ten highest-running Bundesliga players: Jackson Irvine (second), Hauke Wahl (sixth) and Philipp Treu (eighth) – no Leipzig player made it into this list.
St. Pauli are also stable away from home. Twelve points from ten Bundesliga away games is the second-highest figure in the club’s Bundesliga history. The only time they got more was in 2010/11 (13). So, against a faltering RB Leipzig, St. Pauli could well hope for another point – as they did in the 0-0 first leg.
St. Pauli Facts & Analysis
- Second-best team in the second half of the season
- Second-best defense in the league
- Already ten goalless draws
Leipzig are expected to line up in a 4-2-2-2 system under the direction of Marco Rose. St. Pauli, on the other hand, will play in a 3-4-3 system under the direction of Alexander Blessin.
Leipzig – St. Pauli head-to-head & statistics
In six previous meetings, St. Pauli have won three, Leipzig have won two and one has ended in a draw. The goal difference is 8:6 in favor of Leipzig.
Head-to-head comparison
