FSV Mainz 05 – FC Augsburg
Our Mainz – Augsburg prediction is: Mainz win – 1.78 odds
- Mainz has won its last five home games in a row
- Augsburg has only won two of its last six away games
- Mainz has won its last three home games against FCA
On Saturday afternoon, the Bundesliga clash between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg awaits us. The sixth place in the table will meet the 12th place in the table.
Despite their home strength, Mainz are in a bit of a slump. They lost three of their last four games. On the last match day, they suffered a 0-1 defeat against Werder Bremen. The return of top scorer Burkardt could provide hope – he is not yet ready for the starting lineup, but he is expected back on the bench.
Augsburg, on the other hand, is currently in very good form and has remained unbeaten in the last four games – with three wins. However, the FCA had to accept a 0:1 defeat against VfB Stuttgart in the DFB Cup during the week. You can find out from our Mainz – Augsburg tip whether this defeat will dampen Augsburg’s momentum or whether the FCA will remain unbeaten.
Mainz – Augsburg info
- Date & time: 08.02.2025, 3:30 pm
- Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz
- Competition: Bundesliga, match day 21
- TV broadcast/livestream: SKY
Mainz Form & balance check
With 31 points after 20 games, 1. FSV Mainz 05 are playing their second-best Bundesliga season. Only in the 2010/11 season under Thomas Tuchel did the Rhine Hessians perform better at this point in time (36 points). Nevertheless, the most recent phase has been mixed: Mainz lost three of the last four Bundesliga games, but managed to record a 2-0 home win against VfB Stuttgart in between.
A decisive factor for their success so far has been their home strength. They have won their last five Bundesliga home games in a row, and a sixth consecutive home win would be a new club record. They have impressed offensively, scoring at least two goals in all five of these games. If they manage to do the same against FC Augsburg, Mainz would have scored multiple times in six consecutive home games for the first time in a season.
Mainz has traditionally been particularly strong at home against FC Augsburg. The club has not celebrated more home wins against any other Bundesliga club than against FCA (nine, as against TSG Hoffenheim). Mainz have also won their last three home games against the Fuggerstadt-based club. Particularly symbolic: the last home game against Augsburg in February 2024 was head coach Bo Henriksen’s first Bundesliga game on the Mainz sidelines.
Strong opening phase from the 05ers
Tactically, Mainz is conspicuous in the opening quarter of an hour. Eight of their 33 goals this season have come in the first 15 minutes, which corresponds to 24 percent of all goals – proportionately the highest in the league. Defensively, Mainz is particularly stable when it comes to playing out of the game: only 13 goals conceded from open play is the best in the league. However, the team conceded 46 percent of all goals after set-pieces (11 out of 24), which is also a Bundesliga high.
Mainz will have to play against Augsburg without coach Bo Henriksen, who is suspended after receiving his fourth yellow card. The Rhine Hessians also have to do without Anthony Caci – the defender is also suspended. Caci is one of three Mainz outfield players to have started in all Bundesliga games this season and, with four assists, is the team’s top provider of assists together with Phillipp Mwene.
Mainz Facts & Analysis
- Five consecutive home wins
- Mainz have won more home games against FCA than any other team
- Mainz have scored 24% of their goals in the opening quarter of an hour
Augsburg Form & Balance Check
FC Augsburg are in a strong phase. The Swabian club has not been beaten in four Bundesliga games (three wins, one draw) – the first time they have gone this long since February/March 2024, when they even had a streak of five unbeaten games. Their form in the second half of the season is particularly impressive: in the three matchdays of the second half of the season so far, the FCA have picked up seven points, only FC Bayern have more (nine). This haul from the first three second-half games matches the club record that Augsburg previously only equaled in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons.
FCA are also currently difficult to beat away from home. Jess Thorup’s team have not been beaten in their last three Bundesliga away games (two wins, one draw) – they last managed this in October/November 2023. Should the team not lose in Mainz either, they would achieve four consecutive away games without defeat in a single season for the first time since 2020. Furthermore, Augsburg have only previously remained unbeaten in their first three Bundesliga away games in a calendar year in 2014 (and remained unbeaten in their first five away games in that season).
Augsburg may not have the widest range of goal scorers, but they do have an effective way of playing. Only Mainz had fewer different goal scorers (eight) than FCA (nine) this season. At the same time, Augsburg used the second-highest number of players in the league (28; only Hoffenheim used more, with 32).
Dahmen is about to return
A decisive factor in the upturn is the return of Finn Dahmen in goal. The former Mainz player is about to make his 50th Bundesliga appearance and has been convincing since the 16th matchday when he became number one again. Since his return, no team has conceded fewer goals than FCA (three). Dahmen also has the best shot save percentage in the league among all goalkeepers who have made at least three appearances (82%).
A weak point remains the vulnerability in the first quarter of an hour. Augsburg conceded nine of their 35 goals in the first 15 minutes, which is 26% and the highest percentage in the league. Conversely, FCA have scored only six times from set pieces – only St. Pauli (three times) and Bochum (four times) are even weaker in this category.
Augsburg will be without Dimitrios Giannoulis, who is missing through suspension. The Greek is his team’s top provider this Bundesliga season with three assists.
Augsburg facts & analysis
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- Unbeaten in three away games
- 2nd in the second half of the season
- Dahmen with the highest number of shots saved
We expect Mainz to play in a 3-4-2-1 system again under coach Bo Henriksen. Jenz should replace Bell in defense, while Lee could move back in midfield to replace Amiri.
We expect Augsburg to play in a 3-4-2-1 system again under Jess Thorup. Augsburg have not lost in three away league games and will be keen to extend that run.
Mainz vs. Augsburg head to head & statistics
In the 37 duels between the two teams so far, 16 have been won by FCA and 15 by FSV, with six more games ending in a draw. The goal difference is slightly in favor of Mainz, 56-53.
Direct comparison (H2H)
