Bayern Munich – RB Leipzig
Our Bayern – Leipzig betting tip is: Double chance: X/Leipzig – 3.05 odds
- Leipzig have only lost one of the last five direct duels against Bayern
- Bayern lost two of the last three home games against RB
- Bayern in the last game with the first league defeat
On Friday evening, FC Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig will open the 15th matchday of the Bundesliga at the Allianz Arena. The league leaders from Munich currently have 33 points after the first 14 matchdays, putting them four points ahead of second-place Leverkusen. RB Leipzig, on the other hand, are in fourth place and have already collected 27 points, which is exactly the same number of points as third-place Frankfurt.
FC Bayern suffered their first Bundesliga defeat of the season on the last matchday. They lost for the fourth time in a row as league leaders in Mainz, 1-2. Bayern looked particularly dangerous in attack – this should change this week, as top scorer Harry Kane should be back in the lineup, though it is still questionable whether he will be able to play for 90 minutes. Last week, Munich still won their Champions League game 5-1 against Donetsk.
RB Leipzig, on the other hand, won their last Bundesliga game 2-1 against Eintracht Frankfurt, thus regaining ground on the top of the table. In offense, both Leipzig strikers scored again, which should give them hope of being successful against Bayern again. During the week, they were finally knocked out of the CL by Aston Villa, where they had to admit defeat 2-3. Find out whether they can once again trip up the league leaders or whether Bayern will show their dominance again with Kane in our Bayern – Leipzig tip.
Bayern – Leipzig info
- Date & time: 12/20/2024, 8:30 p.m.
- Venue: Allianz-Arena, Munich
- Competition: Bundesliga, match day 15
- TV broadcast/livestream: DAZN 1, UHD
Bayern form & record check
FC Bayern Munich have only won two of their last six competitive home games against RB Leipzig (two draws, two defeats), including a 2-1 win in their last Bundesliga home game in February this year. In the Bundesliga, Bayern have a lower win rate at home against no other current Bundesliga club than against Leipzig (63%).
The record champions last conceded the first defeat of this Bundesliga season, a 2-1 loss in Mainz. It was Bayern’s eighth league defeat in the 2024 calendar year, which is the highest number of defeats in a calendar year since 2001 (also eight). The last time there were more defeats was in 1991 (twelve).
FC Bayern’s last 39 consecutive Bundesliga matches without defeat (25 wins, 14 draws) in the last game of the calendar year came in 1984 (2-3 in Mönchengladbach) – this is still the Bundesliga record. Since a 1-1 home draw with Mönchengladbach, they have actually won 11 consecutive games in the last matches of the year, which is also a record.
Leroy Sané has scored twice (one goal and one assist) in his last two Bundesliga games, the same number as in his 19 Bundesliga appearances before that. Last season, he scored in the 2-2 draw in the away game at Leipzig.
Harry Kane became the player with the most goals in a debut season in the Bundesliga last season with 36. He scored the most Bundesliga goals in the calendar year 2024 with 29 and scored three of Munich’s four goals against Leipzig in the preseason.
Only the royals are better at home
In the 2024 calendar year, FC Bayern won 13 of their 16 home Bundesliga games (one draw, two defeats). In the five major European leagues in 2024, only Real Madrid have a higher win rate in league home games (84%) than Munich (81%).
With only 12 goals conceded, Bayern Munich have the best defense in the Bundesliga this season. However, the Munich goalkeepers have the lowest rate of balls saved in the league (52%).
Bayern Facts & Analysis
- Lowest home win rate in the league against RB
- Eight league defeats already this calendar year – last time in 2001
- Best defense in the league
Leipzig Form & record check
RB Leipzig have forced FC Bayern’s lowest win rate at home in the Bundesliga. In the last six competitive games in Munich, Leipzig have won two games, most recently 3-1 in May 2023.
Leipzig have won their last two Bundesliga away games at a current league leader: 3-0 at Union Berlin in September 2023 and 3-1 at Bayern in May 2023. Only Hansa Rostock (1996 against Dortmund, Bayern and Cologne) have previously managed three consecutive away wins against league leaders in Bundesliga history.
Benjamin Šeško recently scored his tenth competitive goal this season. Only Jamal Musiala (13) and Florian Wirtz (11) have scored more among all U22 players in the Bundesliga. Šeško also scored in two consecutive Bundesliga matches for the first time this season.
Last season, Loïs Openda scored 24 goals, making him the third-highest scoring debutant in Bundesliga history, behind only Uwe Seeler (30 goals in 1963/64) and Jürgen Klopp (25 goals in 1982/83). In the calendar year 2024, Openda scored 19 Bundesliga goals, putting him in second place behind Harry Kane (29).
RB is the most successful Friday team
Leipzig is particularly successful in Friday games: in 22 Bundesliga games on this day of the week, Leipzig has averaged 2.3 points per game – no other club has a higher points average in Friday games. Bayern follows in second place with 2.0 points (like Fortuna Cologne).
With 15 goals conceded, RB Leipzig have the second-best defense in the Bundesliga season (jointly with Union Berlin). The Leipzig goalkeepers have the best save rate this season (78%).
Leipzig Facts & Analysis
- Two consecutive away wins against the current league leaders
- Average of 2.3 points per game on Fridays
- Best save ratio of all goalkeepers
We expect Bayern to line up in the classic 4-2-3-1 system under the direction of Vincent Kompany. Kane should be fit for the game again, but it remains to be seen whether he will be in the starting lineup.
Leipzig will line up in a 3-4-1-2 system with a back three, as they did against Eintracht Frankfurt last time out. They will again pin their hopes on the dangerous forward duo of Openda and Sesko.
Bayern v Leipzig head-to-head & stats
In 20 previous meetings between FC Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig (16 Bundesliga, two DFB-Pokal and two German Super Cup), the Munich team have emerged victorious ten times. Seven games ended in a draw, while Leipzig managed three wins. Bayern lead the goal scoring tally with 39:27 from their point of view.
Head-to-head (H2H)
