Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City, Sunday, October 27, 2024 at 9:00 p.m.
It’s going up for the Formula 1 stars! The Mexican GP is coming up, the circuit is over 2,000 meters above sea level and is particularly demanding for the cars.
On the one hand, the engines need air to breathe, but at the same time, air resistance is needed for the downforce. F1 has been back there since 2015, with some exciting races and many close duels. The start phase is particularly demanding with the long approach towards turn one.
Last week I recommended a top 10 finish for Nico Hülkenberg, the German even finished eighth and scored four points. This time, too, I think he can get something out of it. The odds are quite high.
In my Formula 1 Mexico GP betting tip, the top 10 bet is again one of my favorites, with tenth place on the grid for Emmerich. However, the midfield is tighter this time, as the long runs on Friday showed. Carlos Sainz starts from pole ahead of Max Verstappen and Lando Norris.
Behind them is Leclerc, who I definitely see on the podium after strong times with a full-fueled car and last week’s victory. He was the fastest in Friday’s endurance run. Verstappen, on the other hand, is likely to have fallen back. I also don’t see McLaren at the level of the reds. Bwin still offers a strong 1.50 for the Leclerc podium for my Formula 1 Mexico GP tip!
Max Verstappen took an important step towards the world championship in Austin, thanks in part to a controversial FIA decision. In a thrilling duel against his world championship rival Lando Norris, he came out second best in the end.
At the end of the back straight, both drivers drove off the track, Norris overtook on the outside, but received a time penalty for driving off the track.
The tricky part was that Verstappen braked on the inside when he was already halfway past, so late that Norris had no choice but to take the detour across the outside lane.
With his victory in the sprint and third place ahead of Norris in the main race, he extended his lead to 57 points instead of losing more points to his World Cup rival.
This has had a drastic effect on the World Championship odds. Last week, Verstappen was still at 1.60, but now the odds have plummeted to 1.17. The Norris odds have risen from 2.30 to 4.50.
The huge development after just one race can also be attributed to Ferrari’s strong performance in the US Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz clinched a dominant one-two victory for the Italians.
The bookmakers also expect them to be able to grab some of the big points places in the next few World Championship races, which is exactly what Norris needs to score a lot of points.
Starting grid for the Mexican GP
Ideally from a British point of view, Norris keeps the Ferraris behind him, who in turn finish the race ahead of Verstappen. Then he could still win the first non-Verstappen title since 2021. However, that is very unlikely.
Before I go into the odds for the Mexico GP, I want to give you a recommendation for the Constructors’ Championship. That Ferrari will finish ahead of Red Bull has odds of 1.37 at Bet365, which I think is a great long-term bet until the end of the season.
Ferrari was better than Red Bull in three of the last four races, only losing out on the exceptional city circuit of Singapore, and the Scuderia has two competitive drivers, while Sergio Perez is also weakening in what is probably his last year for the Austrians.
And Verstappen is now waiting for his ninth victory. I expect Ferrari to be in contention for victory in the last few races of the World Cup. Ferrari could have already passed after the race in Mexico. That’s why 1.37 is absolutely top!
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Before the Mexican GP, experts and bookmakers are full of guesswork about who could win the race.
Starting with 1.15 odds for Verstappen at the beginning of the season, and growing to 1.50 for the Dutchman and 2.00 for Norris recently, we have now arrived at an even tighter situation at the top.
Sainz is just ahead at 2.50 after his pole, Norris follows at 3.20, Verstappen is at 3.75, and Leclerc’s 7.00 is particularly appealing.
The last 5 races at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez:
And Mercedes? The pure race speed didn’t look bad and in the sprint qualifying, Hamilton would have taken pole if Franco Colapinto hadn’t triggered the yellow flag with his spin in the last sector.
While Hamilton retired from the race, George Russell was able to secure sixth place from the pits. In Mexico, the Silver Arrows are only panting behind. Russell has to drive with an old configuration after his training accident.
In addition, there is also crash potential at the front, especially the duel between Verstappen and Norris continues to escalate. The Briton is still falling back in the duels, in my opinion the next crash after Spielberg is only a matter of time.
Generally speaking, things could go bang in Mexico. There is a risk of accidents at the start, with the long drive to turn one leading into a narrow chicane. There have been crashes here often. Due to the low air resistance at altitude, the wind shear effect is smaller, making overtaking more difficult.
This means that some duels will drag on over laps and wheel-to-wheel duels will be seen in the corners. It can quickly get noisy there.
And then the drivers can crash just like in training and qualifying because the downforce is lower at altitude and the curbs are toxic.
A “Under 18.5 drivers in the final classification” bet is a good idea. Since 2017, we have only had 20 cars in the field and in every Mexico race, we have not had 19 cars finish.
In addition, the route allows for many close wheel-to-wheel duels, which have often caused problems in the past. Since 2017, there have only been 20 cars, and there have been at least two retirements in Mexico every time since then. Betano offers odds of 1.90 for drivers classified below 18.5.
Conclusion: I actually like the bet with at least two retirements on Sunday just as much as my final odds. Practice has already shown how quickly the car can end up in the Mexican barrier.
Besides, we have many drivers who are under even more pressure to perform than usual: the team duel at Williams, at the Racing Bulls, Valtteri Bottas wants to recommend himself for Audi, and the second crash between Verstappen and Norris is inevitable after Austria.
Ultimately, I consider the bet that Lelcerc will finish the race in the top 3 to be the better option. Ferrari was in a league of its own in the long runs, and also has very low tire wear.
Verstappen will also be primarily concerned with finishing ahead of Norris in order to extend his lead in the championship. The Red Bull driver should be able to get Leclerc in any case, probably the Briton as well, and possibly his team-mate Sainz.
The 2.75 for Leclerc in the top 2 and the 7.00 for the victory are also not bad. However, I prefer to hedge my bets.
My Formula 1 Mexico GP tip: Leclerc in the top 3
