ATP Masters in Paris, 1st round, Monday, 28.10.2024, 2:30 pm
The tournament calendar is too full in his eyes – but of course it should still be a pleasing end to the year! Jan-Lennard Struff has traveled to Paris, knowing full well that he will face a tough challenge right at the start of the Masters.
He’ll face the man who knocked out Alexander Zverev in Vienna, so it’s already clear that the German is not favored. In my Struff Musetti tip, however, I’ll tell you why I’m rooting for three sets and see both as roughly on par.
It was a disappointment in five acts. Jan-Lennard Struff lost in the first round of the US Open in a thriller to Laslo Djere, and then had to realize: at 34, you can’t take it as lightly as you could at 24!
The man from Warstein criticized the tight tournament schedule, withdrew from the tournament in China and worked on his fitness. He returned to Vienna and had the misfortune to meet top player Alex de Minaur immediately.
He even won the first set 6-2, but then his opponent’s individual class prevailed. 6-2, 2-6, 2-6, in a relatively even match, Struff failed to make the decisive impact at the crucial moments.
A three-set defeat against a player from the top 10 is of course not a disaster, but Struff still had to go home immediately. So what are his chances at the Paris Masters?
A round of 16 appearance is the best result in the French capital; the veteran recently failed to make it out of the opening round twice in a row. He was soundly beaten by Tommy Paul and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
It’s a shame that Lorenzo Musetti, who was drawn against him in the first round, is even stronger. Two years ago in Sofia, the two met for the first and so far last time, with Musetti prevailing 7-6, 6-1.
But anyone who thinks that the bookmakers see the Italian as miles ahead is mistaken. Musetti is favored, yes. But the lead is relatively narrow with average odds of 1.55 to 2.40.
At Betano, a bet that Jan-Lennard Struff will take a set would just about make it with odds of 1.50. But is Musetti in the form he needs to advance here without problems?
The 22-year-old will soon conclude a very strong year overall, in which he established himself in the top 20 in the world – and that should by no means be the end of the road!
In Vienna, he had beaten Alexander Zverev 2-6, 7-6, 6-4 despite losing the first set 2-6, but he lost to Jack Draper (2-6, 4-6) shortly afterwards. Musetti is a classic example of a player who is still unable to confirm strong performances with any consistency.
Bu Yunchaokete and David Goffin? Those were the names of the two opponents who knocked him out of the tournament before the Vienna Open! Whether it’s victories against top players or defeats against underdogs, anything can happen against Musetti from one match to the next.
If the one-handed backhand comes through, it could be really uncomfortable for Struff on Monday, but it doesn’t have to be that way. Incidentally, the only direct duel was played in the hall in 2022.
Jan-Lennard Struff is truly not to be envied, to face Lorenzo Musetti right at the start of the Masters of Paris. Time and again, the Warsteiner keeps up well with the big players, but in the end he doesn’t manage to pull through a lead.
Most recently in Shanghai, he also took a set from Alex de Minaur. What can we expect from Musetti? Once again, anything is possible! Since I simply think that the Italian is still not consistent enough, I think Struff can put up a tough fight and predict:
We’ll see three sets here!
