ATP Tournament in Vienna, quarter-finals, Friday, 25.10.2024, 16:00
Alexander Zverev against Lorenzo Musetti, we already had that this year… At the Olympic Games in Paris. The Italian prevailed in the quarter-finals and later won the bronze medal.
I can see the German coming out on top at the tournament in Vienna, albeit not by too much. The hard court conditions in the Stadthalle will suit both of them.
I expect a successful rematch on Friday, which would extend Zverev’s record for the most wins in a year, which currently stands at 61.
However, I expect the sets to last longer. Tipwin is offering tasty odds for over 20.5 games in the match.
Two strong games from Zverev to start in Vienna. After his success against the Austrian talent Joel Schwärzler, he also made the more established Marcos Giron look old. As in Wimbledon, he took the American out of the tournament field in two sets.
The Hamburg-born player presented himself in top form on serve, 82 percent of his first serves went successfully over the net, 32 of the 36 points went to his account, he even won all eight on the second.
With four out of 44 break points won, Giron remained below ten percent, an enormous difference in class. Returning against Zverev on this court is no fun. However, one player who has more qualities in this area is Musetti.
Zverev is listed as the clear favorite, has 1.29 odds at Betano, Musetti is at 3.60.
Musetti has already shown the limits of strong servers several times this year, defeating Zverev and Taylor Fritz twice, reaching the semi-finals at Wimbledon and winning bronze in Paris. However, he is not quite as strong on Hardocurt.
This is also borne out by the figures: this year he has only won 16 of 30 matches, just over half of them. Although he reached the final in Chengdu a month ago, he did not face the crème de la crème of the tennis scene in the 250 tournament.
In Beijing and Shanghai, on the other hand, he was already eliminated in the second round. Will things be better indoors? In Vienna, he first showed his compatriot and namesake Lorenzo Sonego the limits: 6-3, 6-2. He then benefited from a withdrawal by Gael Monfils.
With just one win into the quarter-finals of the Erste Bank Open 2024. Like Zverev, Musetti was able to produce a first serve rate of over 80 percent in his last match and did not concede a single break chance.
A strong match from Musetti, but Sonego is also in a form crisis, conceding his sixth defeat in his seventh match. Ultimately, it will also be difficult for Zverev to get into the service games if Musetti serves like this.
If both players get anywhere near the odds on first serves again, two tiebreaks are de facto inevitable.
Over 1.5 tiebreaks, that’s already decent odds. At Betano, you can not only deposit conveniently via Apple Pay, but also receive a 20 euro free bet before the first top-up if you verify your account.
Without the risk of losing, the over 1.5 tiebreak bet would be an option.
I’ll finish with the Tipwin overmatch market. There are 1.55 odds for over 20.5 games, for example a 7-5, 6-4 would be enough, or 7-6, 6-2. However, I can’t imagine a short set in this duel.
Zverev is the better hard court player, but Musetti also likes the high bouncing balls like on clay.
A hardcourt is not just a hardcourt, due to the different material compositions and layers, the ball sometimes behaves very differently from tournament to tournament.
In addition to the duel in Paris, Zverev last faced each other in 2022, Zverev prevailed after Musetti retired in Madrid.
My Zverev Musetti tip
As strong as Zverev’s first matches were, the win rate for the 2021 Olympic champion is a little too clear for me. In Paris, he lost to Musetti, who also made a strong debut in Vienna.
I had recommended the 2:0 for Zverev against Giron, the odds are lucrative this time too and I see the German ahead on hardcourt anyway, but ultimately the conditions are also good for the man from Carrara.
Both had utopian first serve odds in the last Vienna match and are also likely to experience many short service games in their direct clash.
As I expect very few breaks and the sets between the two stars were long in the summer, I’m opting for the following bet.
My Zverev Musetti tip: Over 20.5 games
