ATP Tournament in Almaty, round of 16, Wednesday, 16.10.2024, 08:00 a.m.
We can look forward to the German tennis future! Justin Engel, who only turned 17 a few days ago, bagged his first ATP victory in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in his very first appearance. The Nuremberg native is now through to the round of 16 at the 250 tournament.
After the rather unknown Chak Lam Coleman Wong, another tough opponent now awaits, a player who has already beaten the German number one, Alexander Zverev, this year.
But Francisco Cerundolo is not quite as strong on hard courts and is only just entering the tournament. After the courageous performance in round one, I don’t expect the young German talent to be beaten in a hurry. That’s why I’m choosing the over 19.5 games from Tipwin in my Cerundolo betting tip.
After Carlos Alcaraz 2020, Engel is the youngest player to win at ATP level, a special step for currently the greatest tennis talent in Germany. He held his own against Wong in two sets, experiencing a perfect day with a service rate of 76 percent.
He also fended off nine of ten break points. With this victory, he has immediately made a set of over 50 places in the live ranking, climbing from 458 to 395. Will it go even further? The top betting providers such as Oddset and Co. do not even completely rule that out.
A total win rate for Cerundolo, who is still ranked 31st, is not available. Some odds of 1.19 are available, and an Engel win bet could see the stake multiplied by five if it wins. But be careful, Cerundolo is a different proposition to Wong.
The 2-0 for the favorites brings a 1.54 odds at Bet365 on the betting slip. A betting provider where you can watch the game for free in the livestream and also serves tax-free odds. I’m not completely averse to the odds.
But there are some arguments that lead me to an over-game bet from Tipwin, the official partner of Bayer Leverkusen. As the seeded player, Cerundolo will serve first in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, while Engel has a slight rhythm advantage in the conditions.
In addition, the right-hander, who is nine years older, is traveling with two defeats in a row, having lost both the second-round match against Karen Khachanov and his opening match against Alexander Shevchenko in Shanghai, both in straight sets. The big self-confidence might not be with him.
Hard court is definitely not the favorite surface of the 31 in the world. A win rate of under 50 percent and still quite little experience of 21 games in the hall. In addition, Cerundolo does not always win the points himself.
Anyone who saw the opening game on Engel’s part knows that, despite his ATP debut, he does not show any nervousness, but rather wants to take the match by storm. He was at the net 18 times against Wong, winning the point on 11 occasions.
In addition to strong counter-attacks, he also showed a good deal of creativity, good stops and lobs, aggressive returns, and his forehands were not without length and speed.
Before his debut victory in Almaty, Engel reached the quarterfinals at the Challenger in Villena, where he defeated a not-so-unknown Luca Van Assche, among others. He won the smaller tournaments in Trier, Cap, Villach and Uslar.
Cerundolo won in Umag, but was only able to make a few highlights when switching from clay to hard courts. He celebrated two victories in the Davis Cup against Jack Draper and Otto Virtanen, as well as a victory in Beijing against Jakub Mensik and a 6-4, 6-4 in the Laver Cup against Casper Ruud.
In five tournament appearances, he has never seen the third round, and his last quick two-set victory was at the Olympics in July in a 6-2, 6-1. Since then, he has not won a match in under 20 games.
My Angel Cerundolo Tip
Cerundolo’s last eight matches have lasted at least 20 games, and he has not won a game under 19.5 games for 12 matches. He is only now entering the tournament in Almaty, having lost his last two matches in China.
Engel put in an aggressive performance against Wong in the first round, showing strong nerves to save nine out of ten break points. Cerundolo should be able to challenge him more, but I don’t expect a quick win given Cerundolo’s rather patchy form.
Besides, the Argentine doesn’t feel as comfortable on hard court as he does on clay. Engel is likely to try to steer the match in his own direction with a good portion of risk, and Cerundolo, with his wit, to take away the rhythm. In my opinion, this is exactly the right strategy against the faltering 31 in the world.
The newly minted 17-year-old doesn’t just want to gain experience in this match…
My angel Cerundolo betting tip: Over 19.5 games
