Basketball Olympics, Group stage, Tuesday, 30.07.2024, 21:00
The world champions are on course for gold in the men’s Olympic basketball tournament after the first matchday, even if their own defensive performance urgently needs to be improved.
I expect the DBB team to play a somewhat tighter game on Tuesday than in the opening game against the Japanese. It’s not for nothing that I’ve put out a corresponding Brazil Germany tip
The world champions’ opening game at this Olympiad is behind us and was a success.
However, I had to tremble a little in the first half, as the Japanese were able to set the tone with their tactic of shooting deep threes. The Asians also benefited from recurring lapses in the German defense.
I particularly remember a sequence in the final period in which the Japanese were able to grab four rebounds in the same offensive move before finishing it off with a successful three from downtown
Nonetheless, my Germany Japan tip came true and the DBB team won by 20 points.
The decisive factor here was the strong work at the opposing board by Franz Wagner, who was a thorn in Japan’s side again this time with 22 points – just like in a test game a few weeks ago.
However, the fact that the Asians were still able to win the rebounding duel 39:36 despite their massive size disadvantage was an indictment and there is nothing to gloss over.
Accordingly, I have the uneasy feeling that the world champions will find it much more difficult to celebrate similarly high victories against their strong group opponents in future – unless they improve their performance.
Brazil have traveled to Paris with a respectable squad that even includes current NBA players.
Although Pereira Mãozinha and Santos Gui do not necessarily play first fiddle for the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors respectively, they nevertheless enhance the South Americans’ quality of play.
Their squad is also not quite as small as the Japanese selection, so the Germans will have to work harder at the board to avoid being outplayed again in the rebounding duel.
The Brazilians lost their own opening game against France 66:78, but got off to a strong start in the opening quarter.
I would therefore rather not recommend a special bet of the type “Germany wins all quarters”, which would have worked against Japan, this time.
The South Americans came out of the half-time break poorly against France and also only sank 40.4% of their field goals, but they will also be able to hold a candle to the Germans at times
In my successful Germany Japan betting tip, I predicted a handicap victory for the DBB team with a 15-point difference, but this time I expect a closer affair.
This time, the margin of victory for the world champions should be in the single-digit point range, so I have marked the offer “GER with HC -8.5” at odds of 1.55 in Betano’s offer.
Germany’s life insurance is and remains Franz Wagner, who should make the difference again this time thanks to his size advantage at the board after the opening game
Interestingly, the last Olympiad three years ago seems to indirectly confirm my Brazil Germany tip.
Even then, the world champions won with a score of the same magnitude as the one I have in mind for Tuesday (75:64).
Also interesting: Franz Wagner was not at the start in Tokyo, but his brother Moritz scored twice as many points as any other player from either team on the floor (28).
But since I think Franz is a tad more talented, the Magic superstar – now that he can play – should break the 20-point mark again
Conclusion: Germany have not yet reached the necessary operating temperature to become the reigning world and Olympic champions.
While the DBB team’s offense was convincing against Japan, there were some hair-raising lapses in defending their own basket.
However, Brazil are not a strong enough opponent like their group opponents France, for example, to be able to consistently exploit these mistakes.
My Brazil Germany betting tip therefore assumes that the Germans will come out on top by at least nine points in the end
My tip: Germany win with handicap -8.5
